This Year So Far

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Re: this year so far

Postby Irishdawg » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:06 am

stever20 wrote:it's funny, I think this year so far the Big East has put themselves in a bind where only 4 bids is possible- and 5 would be really likely....

BUT, I think this year is positioned to be by far the best year of the conference since realignment......

I think the top 3 teams are so good that they're going to all 3 get sweet 16 seeds. Could easily see like a 1,2,4 seed come tourney time.

Top 3 teams can go best case 48-6 vs the other 7 teams. I don't think they're going to do that, but I think it'll be better than even 2 years ago, when the top 3 went 42-12. Way better than last years 37-17.

I think in large part depth is way overrated. Give me 3 great teams and odds are good that you're going to get at least 1 worst case, but more than likely at least 2 sweet 16 spots. I'd take that over those top teams losing extra games and hurting their seeds and getting an extra team in at the bottom.


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Re: this year so far

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Re: this year so far

Postby BigmanU » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:20 am

ThrowDownDBrown wrote:
MullinMayhem wrote:SJ projected to go 8-10 in conference? This is a very tough conference, but I think SJ can be as good as 11-7 if we avoid the injury bug which already cost us the game against ASU. I think we can steal some from SHU, X, Nova. We are due for a few of these.

St John's isn't winning 11 conference games.


This.
St. John's ceiling is 9 wins and fringe NCAA bid. I will be the first in line that desperate wants them to resurrect themselves, but this year they are paper thin up front and will just cost themselves games because of metal lapses. They will beat teams they shouldn't and also drop some to teams with less talent. They'll go as guards Ponds & Lovett go.
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Re: this year so far

Postby sju88grad » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:25 am

BigmanU wrote:
ThrowDownDBrown wrote:
MullinMayhem wrote:SJ projected to go 8-10 in conference? This is a very tough conference, but I think SJ can be as good as 11-7 if we avoid the injury bug which already cost us the game against ASU. I think we can steal some from SHU, X, Nova. We are due for a few of these.

St John's isn't winning 11 conference games.


This.
St. John's ceiling is 9 wins and fringe NCAA bid. I will be the first in line that desperate wants them to resurrect themselves, but this year they are paper thin up front and will just cost themselves games because of metal lapses. They will beat teams they shouldn't and also drop some to teams with less talent. They'll go as guards Ponds & Lovett go.


I agree. I would be thrilled with a 9-9 finish which would probably put us right on the bubble. I think we would have to do some damage in the BET to be considered for a bid. This conference is so strong that it's really hard to make big leaps from year to year. I was amazed we went 7-11 last year after a 1-17 finish the year before. Now, if we can somehow beat Duke..... ;)
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Re: this year so far

Postby BigmanU » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:28 am

St John's isn't winning 11 conference games.[/quote]

This.
St. John's ceiling is 9 wins and fringe NCAA bid. I will be the first in line that desperate wants them to resurrect themselves, but this year they are paper thin up front and will just cost themselves games because of metal lapses. They will beat teams they shouldn't and also drop some to teams with less talent. They'll go as guards Ponds & Lovett go.[/quote]

I agree. I would be thrilled with a 9-9 finish which would probably put us right on the bubble. I think we would have to do some damage in the BET to be considered for a bid. This conference is so strong that it's really hard to make big leaps from year to year. I was amazed we went 7-11 last year after a 1-17 finish the year before. Now, if we can somehow beat Duke..... ;)[/quote]

You do that, the all scenarios are in their lap. Good luck this year, I'm rooting like hell for you except against us.
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Re: this year so far

Postby GumbyDamnit! » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:46 am

Not even sure why we should bother with the conference games. Heck let’s disband the committee and just let the resident HLOH Nostradamus pick the field. Obviously he knows what’s going to happen.

SJU goes 9-9 without losing to DePaul or Gtown, beats Nova, X and SHU, they are going to the dance. Substitute SJU for Butler, Marq and PC and the same will happen. CU gets in comfortably. Way too much B.B. left to play. My prediction: no less than 5.

Your problem Stever is that you still fail to recognize that then BE is a power conference. In a conf like the AAC, teams like Temple, UCF or UConn have zero margin for error. If they can’t knock off WSU or Cincy, they just don’t have enough opportunities for signature wins. So .500 in that league and you’re screwed. .500 in a league like the BE, B12, ACC and you are absolutely in contention.
Go Nova!
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Re: this year so far

Postby stever20 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:58 am

GumbyDamnit! wrote:Not even sure why we should bother with the conference games. Heck let’s disband the committee and just let the resident HLOH Nostradamus pick the field. Obviously he knows what’s going to happen.

SJU goes 9-9 without losing to DePaul or Gtown, beats Nova, X and SHU, they are going to the dance. Substitute SJU for Butler, Marq and PC and the same will happen. CU gets in comfortably. Way too much B.B. left to play. My prediction: no less than 5.

Your problem Stever is that you still fail to recognize that then BE is a power conference. In a conf like the AAC, teams like Temple, UCF or UConn have zero margin for error. If they can’t knock off WSU or Cincy, they just don’t have enough opportunities for signature wins. So .500 in that league and you’re screwed. .500 in a league like the BE, B12, ACC and you are absolutely in contention.


If Temple goes .500 in AAC with a win over Georgia in a week, they're 18-12 with a top 40 RPI(due to a top 25 SOS). If that's not in contention, I don't know what to say... That gets you in the tourney, and probably not even close.

I think 5 is what I'd say is most likely for the Big East. But 4 is quite possible. I think it's VERY possible that you see the top 3 teams finishing with about 45 conference wins between the 3 of them. That would mean the other 7 teams would have only 3 wins vs those top 3 teams. I think you could see final stadings being like what we saw with WCC in 2015
#1 17-1
#2/3 tied at 13-5
#4 10-8
#5 8-10
#6-8 tied at 7-11
#9/10 tied at 4-14

If that happens, 4 is frankly guaranteed at that point. None of the other teams are in a position to make the tourney finishing at 8-10.

But I would make the arguement in that scenario that would be not so bad for the Big East.
Nova 30-1 RPI 1
Xavier 25-6 RPI 5.2
Seton Hall 25-6 RPI 7.3
Creighton 20-10 RPI 36.7

At least 2 top 2 seeds, and quite possibly a 3rd with Seton Hall.
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Re: this year so far

Postby kmacker69 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:12 pm

And that's I why usually ignore Stever! :roll: Your reply had a bunch of info which if all taken separately is sound, but put together is very improbable and you play it out in the worst light. :roll: We get 4 in I will apologize, but you're back on the ignore list. :twisted:
Lets go Dawgs!
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Re: this year so far

Postby stever20 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:18 pm

kmacker69 wrote:And that's I why usually ignore Stever! :roll: Your reply had a bunch of info which if all taken separately is sound, but put together is very improbable and you play it out in the worst light. :roll: We get 4 in I will apologize, but you're back on the ignore list. :twisted:

but is it really improbable? I think Nova, Xavier, and Seton Hall are all really good teams. I think it's VERY possible that all 3 of them go between them like 44-10 or something like that. Giving other 6 teams only 4 wins- of which probably at least 1 or 2 go to the 4th place team. So I think the teams 5-8 are going to be sitting probably close to either 1-5 or 0-6 after the 3 top teams- then even splitting with Creighton at 4 would put them at 2-6 or 1-7. If they're 1-7 with those top 4 teams, they'd have to go 8-2 vs teams 5-10 to even really have a chance. That's going to be pretty big.

I mean, 2 years ago, top 3 teams were 42-12(last year, when BE got 7 in, went 37-17). Would it really surprise anyone if the top 3 got 43 or 44 conference wins?
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Re: this year so far

Postby stever20 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:28 pm

what I think is really funny-
If the Big East got only 4 teams in but 3 top 2 seeds, I would call that a great year for the Big East- the best one ever since realignment, but there would be others saying that it was an awful year because only getting 4 teams in rather than 6 or 7.
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Re: this year so far

Postby Edrick » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:48 pm

A minimum of six are going to make it, 7 more likely. 8 is FAR more likely than four.

Itll be 7 -- again.
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