This Year So Far

[handdownmandown]

Stever makes the same mistake every single time when making his 'projections': that every team is destined to play exactly to their mean. This way, the entirety of the 5-8 BE clubs wind up out. QED, right?

And then reality occurs, and it doesn't work out that way.

But what would it take for him to be right? Well right now St John's is projected by RPIForecast as the #5 team with an RPI of 40. That's at 8-10 in conference. 9-9 would put them in the low 30s and almost undoubtedly in, and even at 5th and 8-10 they are looking OK. So, stop with the 4 team stuff, it looks far more like the floor is 5-ish.

But dig in further: GTown and DePaul are projected for nine wins total. Subtracting the two wins they would earn head to head, does anyone here think they will combine for seven wins vs. the top 8? Not me, I'll bet the house on the under. So there will be more wins floating around that are currently not assigned to the top 8 than you'd imagine.

And two other points: if Hauser, Cartwright, Martin, or Ponds were to get hurt, that team would likely move down to where they are closer to the bottom two than the other three, becoming in essence a third parts car for everyone else to use to build resumes, and the top 1-4 aren't immune to injuries either; Watson and Sumner getting hurt was worth another bid or two. And finally, each team 5-8 will have a potential play-in game in the round of 8 in New York if they need it.

And then, we still have a chance to rise the tide even further this next 10 days. Even pulling off an extra upset or two will goose everyone's numbers a bit.

So this is nonsense. Realistically, I don't see any less than 6; we will pick up a couple wins currently projected to the last two, the 5-8 won't be a wash (instead, two teams will overperform their projections and two will underperform), and six will be in safely.

[stever20]

A minimum of six are going to make it, 7 more likely. 8 is FAR more likely than four.

Itll be 7 -- again.

what do you think the final conference records are going to be? You are acting like the conference RPI is the sole determinent in NCAA bids. It's not. Individual teams earn NCAA bids, not conferences. Like it or not, Marquette, Butler, St John's, and Providence have all 4 put themselves in a position where there's really no chance for them to finish at 8-10 and make the tourney. Marquette and Providence have 3 conference losses already. Butler and St John's are both projected to lose again in OOC play.

You say Vanderbilt made it last year with 17-14 regular season and 2-1 in conference tourney. True. But they played 25 RPI top 100 teams in the season and had the #2 SOS. None of the Big East teams are in that boat.

And you guys are just making my point. There are a lot of folks who think the sole measure of a conference is the number of bids. It's not. Give me a 1 and 2 2's any day of the week over 7 mediocre bids. I'd take 2018 Big East and how it's projected in Ken Pom right now over last year 100% of the time.

[stever20]

Stever makes the same mistake every single time when making his 'projections': that every team is destined to play exactly to their mean. This way, the entirety of the 5-8 BE clubs wind up out. QED, right?

And then reality occurs, and it doesn't work out that way.

But what would it take for him to be right? Well right now St John's is projected by RPIForecast as the #5 team with an RPI of 40. That's at 8-10 in conference. 9-9 would put them in the low 30s and almost undoubtedly in, and even at 5th and 8-10 they are looking OK. So, stop with the 4 team stuff, it looks far more like the floor is 5-ish.

But dig in further: GTown and DePaul are projected for nine wins total. Subtracting the two wins they would earn head to head, does anyone here think they will combine for seven wins vs. the top 8? Not me, I'll bet the house on the under. So there will be more wins floating around that are currently not assigned to the top 8 than you'd imagine.

And two other points: if Hauser, Cartwright, Martin, or Ponds were to get hurt, that team would likely move down to where they are closer to the bottom two than the other three, becoming in essence a third parts car for everyone else to use to build resumes, and the top 1-4 aren't immune to injuries either; Watson and Sumner getting hurt was worth another bid or two. And finally, each team 5-8 will have a potential play-in game in the round of 8 in New York if they need it.

And then, we still have a chance to rise the tide even further this next 10 days. Even pulling off an extra upset or two will goose everyone's numbers a bit.

So this is nonsense. Realistically, I don't see any less than 6; we will pick up a couple wins currently projected to the last two, the 5-8 won't be a wash (instead, two teams will overperform their projections and two will underperform), and six will be in safely.

Looking at the team page, St John's at 17-13 would have a RPI of 45. They would need an upset in rd 1 of the BET to get in(and remember, BET counts as home games for St John's, so a loss would kill the RPI).

I'd agree with you on Georgetown and DePaul. However, I think they may be underselling quite frankly the top 3. I think those 3 are going to be way stronger than 38 wins. I think top 3 wins more extra games than bottom 2 lose extra games.

To your point about the next 10 days. Really only teams that can help themselves much OOC rest of the way are Butler(vs Purdue) and St John's(vs Duke). Providence already has 3 losses(including a bad one vs Umass). Marquette has 3 losses. Either one of those go 9-9 and their RPI is just worse than 50. Both would be square on the bubble. Providence in fact has a must win next Wednesday vs Houston. Lose there and they really need 10.

[adoraz]

I know Stever is trolling here and making the exact same mistake he always does, but he does have a point (one that I figured out a while ago on my own without the need for this thread). As a SJU fan I would definitely prefer the BE teams to be at last year's level rather than this year's. This year the top 3/4 teams are too good and it will be tough to go 9-9 and make the NCAAs. I am definitely predicting 5 teams at a minimum (most likely 6), I just don't know if one will be SJU. 4 won't happen. The league would have to be very unlucky for that to happen with 4 teams finishing at 8-10.

Obviously for the league, being top heavy is a very GOOD problem to have. I absolutely am happy about it. But as a SJU fan, this year, this league is now reminding me of the old Big East where we had no shot during certain games. SJU isn't at that level quite yet, which is a SJU problem more than anything.

[stever20]

I know Stever is trolling here and making the exact same mistake he always does, but he does have a point (one that I figured out a while ago on my own without the need for this thread). As a SJU fan I would definitely prefer the BE teams to be at last year's level rather than this year's. This year the top 3/4 teams are too good and it will be tough to go 9-9 and make the NCAAs. I am definitely predicting 5 teams at a minimum (most likely 6), I just don't know if one will be SJU. 4 absolutely won't happen. The league would have to be very unlucky for that to happen with 4 teams finishing at 8-10.

Obviously for the league, being top heavy is a very GOOD problem to have. I absolutely am happy about it. But as a SJU fan, this year, this league is now reminding me of the old Big East where we had no shot during certain games. SJU isn't at that level quite yet, which is a SJU problem more than anything.

The thing is, I think Providence and Marquette could go 9-9 and miss the tourney. Especially if Providence were to lose to Houston. Look at the projected RPI's at 9-9 for PC and Marquette. PC- at 18-13 only 50.5. 17-14(so losing to Houston) 61.1. For Marquette- at 18-12 52.2. Neither Providence or Marquette would be a lock by any stretch with those RPI's. They would need a BET win to get in most likely(and in the scenario, they'd be in the 3/6 and 4/5 games).

I just don't see 6 being all that likely. to get 6 in, Big East would need to have St John's and Butler finishing 5th and 6th with 9 or more wins.

I think 5 is the most likely spot quite frankly.

[hoyahooligan]

Yeah While I don't think 4 is a possibility I do think 5 is a real possibility.

I think the top 3 have a lot of separation from the pack. And I honestly don't think teams 5-10 are all that good. I also don't think teams 5-8 are good enough to consistently beat teams 9 and 10 and that there could be a lot of teams bunched up below .500

I could see a season like
15-3
14-4
14-4
10-8
9-9
7-11
6-12
6-12
6-12
3-15

[Nildogg]

I remember how we at BU always used to talk about the tourney credits and money we were generating from tourney revenues. Anyone have a breakdown of how much all of these tourney appearances/ wins mean for our conference and how the money is distributed? Might start to rival the TV revenue per team, no?

[marquette]

Alright, I've been working all day so I have been neglecting my mod duties but brace yourselves, 12 Stever posts incoming.

[Red Rooster]

I know Stever is trolling here and making the exact same mistake he always does, but he does have a point (one that I figured out a while ago on my own without the need for this thread). As a SJU fan I would definitely prefer the BE teams to be at last year's level rather than this year's. This year the top 3/4 teams are too good and it will be tough to go 9-9 and make the NCAAs. I am definitely predicting 5 teams at a minimum (most likely 6), I just don't know if one will be SJU. 4 won't happen. The league would have to be very unlucky for that to happen with 4 teams finishing at 8-10.

Obviously for the league, being top heavy is a very GOOD problem to have. I absolutely am happy about it. But as a SJU fan, this year, this league is now reminding me of the old Big East where we had no shot during certain games. SJU isn't at that level quite yet, which is a SJU problem more than anything.

Last season, outside of the top teams in the conference, St. John's was tough at home. I expect nothing differently, this season. I think they could go 6-2 at home this season. If they win 3 or 4 games on the road, then that'll get them to 9 or 10 wins.

So this is nonsense. Realistically, I don't see any less than 6; we will pick up a couple wins currently projected to the last two, the 5-8 won't be a wash (instead, two teams will overperform their projections and two will underperform), and six will be in safely.

I also expect no less than 6 conference teams to make the dance. 5 at minimum and 6 at the most.

I think the top 3 have a lot of separation from the pack. And I honestly don't think teams 5-10 are all that good. I also don't think teams 5-8 are good enough to consistently beat teams 9 and 10 and that there could be a lot of teams bunched up below .500

Maybe, teams 7 and 8 could consistently struggle with teams 9 and 10, but team 6, and, without question, team 5 could sweep the two bottom teams.

[ThrowDownDBrown]

Yeah While I don't think 4 is a possibility I do think 5 is a real possibility.

I think the top 3 have a lot of separation from the pack. And I honestly don't think teams 5-10 are all that good. I also don't think teams 5-8 are good enough to consistently beat teams 9 and 10 and that there could be a lot of teams bunched up below .500

I could see a season like
15-3
14-4
14-4
10-8
9-9
7-11
6-12
6-12
6-12
3-15

Georgetown isn't winning 6 conference games.