This Year So Far

[stever20]

looking- ESPN just released new bracketology...

Big East has 5 teams in right now. Butler is the next to last team in right now....

But- has-
Nova #1 overall seed
Xavier 2 seed
Seton Hall 4 seed
Creighton 7 seed
Butler 11 seed in PIG

And going to what was said earlier.... Big Ten with only 5 teams in(including a FF team). Pac 12 with 3....

but to my response- ACC with 11(BARF). SEC and Big 12 with 7 each....

[kayako]

Last year if Creighton and Xavier did not have the injuries that they did the conference would not have earned 7 bids. I think everyone here gets a little too focused on the # of bids rather than the % of the conference getting bids. Just because the ACC gets 7 bids in an average year with 3 top 4 seeds doesn't mean that will be us. They have 4 more schools. It would be damn near impossible for us to do both, so a couple of the top 3 either need to collapse or they continue to play like top 15 teams and earn high seeds at the expense of getting a 7th and possibly 6th bid.

If someone on the ACC board started a thread saying "I expect the ACC to get 7 NCAA Tournament bids" there would be one post saying "No shit, real bold prediction". Here because it's stever everyone let's him get to them for some reason because he makes a claim that 50% of the conference will get in, and that is controversial because last year was a fluke with two of the top teams losing a bunch of games to the middle of the conference mainly due to injuries.

5 more schools with Notre Dame. Yeah, 5 bids isn't the end of the world considering it's 50% of our conference.

[stever20]

for those that say getting more teams gets more tourney units....

using todays bracketology-
Villanova- 5 units
Xavier- 4 units
Seton Hall- 3 units
Creighton- 2 units
Butler- 1 unit(in PIG)

So either 15 or 16 units depending on what Butler did in the PIG....

now compare to last year's projection-
Nova- 5 units
Butler- 3 units
Creighton- 2 units
Marquette, Seton Hall, Xavier- 1 unit each
Providence- 1 unit (in PIG)
so either 14 or 15 units depending on what Providence did in the PIG....

Yeah, getting more teams in is more of a guarantee, but it has more teams with much tougher paths.

[NJRedman]

A minimum of six are going to make it, 7 more likely. 8 is FAR more likely than four.

Itll be 7 -- again.

what do you think the final conference records are going to be? You are acting like the conference RPI is the sole determinent in NCAA bids. It's not. Individual teams earn NCAA bids, not conferences. Like it or not, Marquette, Butler, St John's, and Providence have all 4 put themselves in a position where there's really no chance for them to finish at 8-10 and make the tourney. Marquette and Providence have 3 conference losses already. Butler and St John's are both projected to lose again in OOC play.

You say Vanderbilt made it last year with 17-14 regular season and 2-1 in conference tourney. True. But they played 25 RPI top 100 teams in the season and had the #2 SOS. None of the Big East teams are in that boat.

And you guys are just making my point. There are a lot of folks who think the sole measure of a conference is the number of bids. It's not. Give me a 1 and 2 2's any day of the week over 7 mediocre bids. I'd take 2018 Big East and how it's projected in Ken Pom right now over last year 100% of the time.

You conveniently leave out on all of your "facts" that the Pac and B1G are having down years so it's not like our middle teams will be fighting against those conferences middle teams for bids. Ours stand head and shoulders above theirs.

St. John's put themselves in this position by losing to a top ten team on the west coast? Really?

[stever20]

A minimum of six are going to make it, 7 more likely. 8 is FAR more likely than four.

Itll be 7 -- again.

what do you think the final conference records are going to be? You are acting like the conference RPI is the sole determinent in NCAA bids. It's not. Individual teams earn NCAA bids, not conferences. Like it or not, Marquette, Butler, St John's, and Providence have all 4 put themselves in a position where there's really no chance for them to finish at 8-10 and make the tourney. Marquette and Providence have 3 conference losses already. Butler and St John's are both projected to lose again in OOC play.

You say Vanderbilt made it last year with 17-14 regular season and 2-1 in conference tourney. True. But they played 25 RPI top 100 teams in the season and had the #2 SOS. None of the Big East teams are in that boat.

And you guys are just making my point. There are a lot of folks who think the sole measure of a conference is the number of bids. It's not. Give me a 1 and 2 2's any day of the week over 7 mediocre bids. I'd take 2018 Big East and how it's projected in Ken Pom right now over last year 100% of the time.

You conveniently leave out on all of your "facts" that the Pac and B1G are having down years so it's not like our middle teams will be fighting against those conferences middle teams for bids. Ours stand head and shoulders above theirs.

St. John's put themselves in this position by losing to a top ten team on the west coast? Really?

And the ACC and Big 12 have had great OOC years. Folks want to forget that.

St John's is in the position they're in not because they lost to Arizona St, but more because who have they beaten? UCF is the best win, and they might not finish better than 6th or 7th in the AAC.

[Edrick]

Butler, St Johns, Marquette, and Providence are all within Pomeroy #48 through #53. The middle of the Big East are effectively equivalents

Most, if not all, will make the NCAA Tournament.

[stever20]

Butler, St Johns, Marquette, and Providence are all within Pomeroy #48 through #53. The middle of the Big East are effectively equivalents

Most, if not all, will make the NCAA Tournament.

What do you think the final standings will be in conference play?

Also, I would note that last year 7 teams in the finl KP regular season top 50 missed the tournament. why? just raw win loss record for some....
Clemson 17-15
TCU 19-15
Indiana 18-15
Texas Tech 18-14(didn't even make NIT)
Utah 20-11
Houston 21-10
Syracuse 18-14

3 of the 6 teams in the KP 48-53 range missed the tournament last year. From 41 to 55, 8 teams missed the tourney.

[jfan]

Alright, I've been working all day so I have been neglecting my mod duties but brace yourselves, 12 Stever posts incoming.

How can you possibly neglect the most important job of your life---editing Stever. You might have to quit your day job!! And no I don't want to be a mod!

[milksteak]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/167

50% of the Big East. 30% of the Big East with a #4 seed or better. Top overall seed for Villanova.

AAC with 4/12 teams making the dance...with three of the four having a #7 or worse.

Now...any NORMAL person would say the Big East is in a better spot right now, but I'll let the #SteverSpin take affect in 3..2...1...

[stever20]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/167

50% of the Big East. 30% of the Big East with a #4 seed or better. Top overall seed for Villanova.

AAC with 4/12 teams making the dance...with three of the four having a #7 or worse.

Now...any NORMAL person would say the Big East is in a better spot right now, but I'll let the #SteverSpin take affect in 3..2...1...

No I would agree... Though I do think that the AAC could easily get a 5th team in the tourney if Houston can do enough damage in conference play. 5 is definitely in play for the AAC.

But I would also argue that this bracket would be 100% better than the bracket from the 2017 season even with the 2 fewer teams for the Big East.