The Holy Land of Hoops

I think we have an interesting case study underway.

In DePaul, we have a team that is trying to upgrade talent and deal with graduations. They have decided to really challenge themselves by playing a bunch of F5 schools in the noncon. Perhaps the idea is that this scheduling will harden the team and make them battle tested for conference season. Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, the team has managed to lose all of these games against tough opponents.

Georgetown is in a similar predicament in terms of talent, but opted for the opposite scheduling philosophy. They have chosen to load up on cupcakes (and wins) to hopefully build confidence among the kids on the roster. They've won the games (so far) but the wins have not done much to prepare the team for the conference challenges ahead. Of course, they also don't have to lug around a record full of L's either, which may make them look better to an outsider.

Here are the questions -
1) Which philosophy is better for team and player development?
2) Which strategy is better for the conference as a whole and the other teams in the conference? In other words, when DePaul or Georgetown inevitably beats a BE bubble team, would it be better off to lose to a team with the better record or with the better strength of schedule?

As to the second question, I guess I am under the belief that from a perception standpoint, a loss to a team with the better record will look better. To the extent that RPI is relevant at all, I also think that the team with a bunch of wins, regardless of the quality, will have the better RPI. As a result, I tend to believe that if you know you are not that talented and/or really young, you would be better off choosing the Georgetown scheduling model rather than the DePaul scheduling model. Thoughts?

here is Georgetowns current RPI forecast:
15-14 157.3
14-15 177.0
13-16 196.3
12-17 214.2
11-18 233.1
10-19 240.0

and DePaul's
12-18 156.8
11-19 175.0
10-20 192.8
9-21 209.9
8-22 225.8
7-23 242.8

Georgetown should get 10 OOC wins
DePaul should get 7 OOC wins

Really looking at things- RPI wise, they'll enter the conference season with roughly the same RPI potential.

I've already gone on record, several times, what I think, so no need to rehash it.

If you're in situation similar to those teams, then there should be a medium. Don't load up on too many potential L's nor load up on too many, easy cream puffs, either. But, if I had to choose one, then it would be DePaul's schedule that I'd go with in this case. Georgetown's schedule is downright deplorable.

Their schedule is similar to the saying, per a football game ending up in a tie. It's like kissing your sister; you get nothing out of it.

Since you are talking about both my teams I shall chime in. I would rather have DePaul's schedule than Georgetown simply because if they win, that will boost up their RPI. If they lose..well its really not going to hurt them or the conference even if they pull some upsets in conference play.

Georgetown on the other hand will have a negative impact in that one off night they lose to a Junior College level program, that will bring not only their RPI but the conference overall RPI down. On that same note, if they were to go in conference play with those bad losses and happen to pull an upset on some of the conference mates, that lost to GW will come hurt them come selection sunday.

stever20 wrote:here is Georgetowns current RPI forecast:
15-14 157.3
14-15 177.0
13-16 196.3
12-17 214.2
11-18 233.1
10-19 240.0

and DePaul's
12-18 156.8
11-19 175.0
10-20 192.8
9-21 209.9
8-22 225.8
7-23 242.8

Georgetown should get 10 OOC wins
DePaul should get 7 OOC wins

Really looking at things- RPI wise, they'll enter the conference season with roughly the same RPI potential.

Huh why did you pull the worst possible record for these teams rather the results with the highest % of happening? More proof you're not a Georgetown fan.

Here are the most likely records and RPIs based on RPI Forecast:

Georgetown:
19-10 83.4 12.29%
18-11 99.6 16.96%
17-12 118.0 20.41%
16-13 137.0 17.65%
15-14 157.3 12.51%


DePaul:
12-18 156.8 12.54%
11-19 175.0 19.02%
10-20 192.8 21.65%
9-21 209.9 18.04%
8-22 225.8 11.33%

So based on this Georgetown's Strategy is the superior one in therms of benefit for the league. Maybe it won't prepare the team for the conference schedule, maybe it will build the confidence they need to overachieve. We'll have to wait and see.

Now I think we absolutely overdid it interms of a weak schedule and hope it's improved next year, but in terms of RPI It seems to be the superior approach to DePaul.

Hoyahooligan, Stever said OOC wins, not wins overall. By RPIForecast, Georgetown is projected to go 10-1, while DePaul is projected to go 7-5.

XUFan09 wrote:Hoyahooligan, Stever said OOC wins, not wins overall. By RPIForecast, Georgetown is projected to go 10-1, while DePaul is projected to go 7-5.

Right he says that in the second half, but the first half of his post has end of season records and RPIs.

The records he projects assuming 10 OOC wins means he only posted options for the Hoyas to go 5-13 in conference or worse. Why assume that? The numbers I posted also assume 10 OOC wins but our projected most likely BE record right now is 7-11. So our most likely out comes range us from 9-9 to 5-13 in conference like I posted rather than 5-13 to 0-18 as Stever posted.

The records Stever posted as gtown's forecast have a lot less of a chance of happening compared to the ones he posted for Depaul:

Georgetown:
15-14 159.8 12.72%
14-15 179.7 7.50%
13-16 198.8 3.00%
12-17 216.7 0.95%
11-18 230.1 0.11%
10-19 258.0 0.03%

DePaul:
12-18 158.1 13.73%
11-19 176.7 18.73%
10-20 193.2 20.97%
9-21 211.1 17.71%
8-22 226.4 10.67%
7-23 242.9 4.52%

So DePaul's most likely outcomes are worse than Georgetown's most likely outcomes.

I think so far Georgetown's strategy is working like a charm.

When they won tonight against Maine it said "Georgetown first 5-0 start since the 2010-11 season" in FS1. Perception is important. Outsiders won't know the wins came from playing crappy teams. People like teams that WIN even if the diehards are pissed. I think Ewing was smart not loading up on major opponents. Right now the perception is that Georgetown is trending upward with one of its stars coaching the team. Keep loading on the wins and be 8-0 before Syracuse match up @ home. The good thing is that the Big East bails GT out of a weak schedule until they catch up.

Now, imagine they beat Syracuse at home. All that weak schedule talk will be forgotten with a victory against the Orange.

Georgetown and Ewing just need to make sure they don't lose any of these cupcakes. A loss looks ugly and hurts the conference. But if they win them all I think the strategy will work better than DePaul

ecasadoSBU wrote:I think so far Georgetown's strategy is working like a charm.

When they won tonight against Maine it said "Georgetown first 5-0 start since the 2010-11 season" in FS1. Perception is important. Outsiders won't know the wins came from playing crappy teams. People like teams that WIN even if the diehards are pissed. I think Ewing was smart not loading up on major opponents. Right now the perception is that Georgetown is trending upward with one of its stars coaching the team. Keep loading on the wins and be 8-0 before Syracuse match up @ home. The good thing is that the Big East bails GT out of a weak schedule until they catch up.

Now, imagine they beat Syracuse at home. All that weak schedule talk will be forgotten with a victory against the Orange.

Georgetown and Ewing just need to make sure they don't lose any of these cupcakes. A loss looks ugly and hurts the conference. But if they win them all I think the strategy will work better than DePaul

To the casual, basketball fan, their (Georgetown) record may catch the eye. But, to the true hoop head, it won't fly, as they know who Georgetown is beating up on. Even if the true hoop head isn't watching their games, they'll quickly go look up Georgetown's opposition to find out. The casual fan won't do so, but hoop heads like us will look up the results.

FS1 is just promoting a team in the Big East, as the Big East is their "money" conference. Again, it might work with the extremely, casual fan, but not with the true hoop heads. I still don't understand this perception that Ewing should've or had to load up on 10 cupcakes. You do know the Hoyas could've played 4 or 5 other schools, and none of them had to be "major opponents." That's a weak argument and has tons of holes in it.

Just decent or even average opponents would've sufficed. Remember, this is the worst schedule in the last 13 years in all of college basketball. The only one worst was a school coming off a murder scandal.

The weak scheduling not only kills their RPI, but can drag down the RPI of the conference as a whole. It will also hurt their chances of any postseason bids (NCAA or NIT), if they were to overachieve in conference play.

Say, if Depaul goes into Big East play at 8-4 or 7-5 and Georgetown goes into conference play at 10-1, right? DePaul would likely be in better position for an NIT bid than Georgetown, if they both--for, instance--were to end up being 7-11 in conference play. A much, better strength of schedule.

In today's college basketball, most teams in Power 5 conferences are being challenged around 4 or 5 times before conference play. It can possibly get a team prepared for conference play, and it's always a good idea to put your team in a position to make the tournament each season.

Beating Syracuse won't quell the weak scheduling talk. It would only raise it because beating a potential NCAA tournament team in Syracuse would make some people wonder what could've been with a better schedule. Besides, Syracuse looks to have a decent team, but they aren't some juggernaut of a team this season. At least, not at this juncture, that's not the case. They're certainly beatable, and I feel it could turn out to be a decent game between them and the Hoyas.

I honestly don't see the big deal here. Again. Get the wins (Must win and avoid bad losses to these cupcakes) and have a good winning record by the end of the year 1. Go out and recruit kids and show that Georgetown is winning again and is back in business... draw them in and improve the schedule on year 2... and continue showing momemtum

As opposed to the DePaul strategy which has been a failure for over a decade. Schedule tough but show no momentum. The only change that may finally make a difference is the new arena in Downtown Chicago.