Top 50 Players in the Big East

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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby TAMU Eagle » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:40 pm

Letsgonova wrote:Phil Booth in the top 20? That's bigly respect, but I'd like to see the poor kid play a few games healthy first.

This also means, presumably, that Brunson, Bridges and Spellman are all in the top 10. Damn.


We do like ourselves some Phil Booth. He got major points for being in the top 3 for dPPP on this list (using his stats from 15-16). For the purposes of this list, we are assuming he is coming back 100% healthy which may be a big assumption. But with no way for us to objectively guess to how impacted he will be by the injury, the only fair thing to do is rank him as if he will be healthy, with the caveat that he may not be.
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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby TAMU Eagle » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:57 pm

Savannah Jay wrote:
GumbyDamnit! wrote:
GumbyDamnit! wrote:I find it very hard to believe that there are 10 players in this league better than Cartwright, Foster and Thomas.

In fact I can only think of 3 that prob can't be debated: Blueitt, Brunson and Delgado. I guess the other 7 are (in no particular order): Rodriguez, Carrington, Bridges, Spellman, Ponds, Bullock and Martin? I think there are several on that list that I would put behind them IMO.


Last year, Brunson, Delgado, Foster, and Hart were unanimous first team all conference selections. Bluiett and Chrabascz rounded out first team.

So last year there wasn't 10 better than Foster. I find it hard to believe there will be 10 better this year. And Khyri is our best all around player.


With respect to the All-Conference voters, we've found that they disproportionately value points per game when making their selections. Foster is an elite volume scorer but he doesn't bring you much rebounding or defense. In fact, he was the 2nd worst defender in the top 18 players and has one of the lowest rebounding rates in the top 50. Still, his scoring is so elite that he still deserves a spot near the top of the list.

As mentioned in the article, we used a formula to get players in the right range before making some "eye test" adjustments. An interesting wrinkle is that the scoring identified a pretty distinct top 14 players. The difference in score between player #3 and #14, is smaller the distance in score between #14 and #15. So there's a top 2, the next 11, and then a pretty big break to the rest of the pack. So while we put Thomas and Foster at 11/12, they are a lot closer to #3 then they are to #15
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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby TAMU Eagle » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:05 pm

ThrowDownDBrown wrote:Rowsey and Hauser are ranked way too high


Sam Hauser was quietly the best player on Marquette last season. There are only two players on this list that rank in the top 5 in both eFG% (most important stat on offense) and dPPP (most important stat on defense). One of the two was Sam Hauser. The only reason he isn't higher is because of his lower usage. His advanced stats are bound to go down as his raw numbers go up this season.


Rowsey earned his spot thanks to his absurd eFG% and PPP. Top 6 on this list in eFG% and 99th percentile in the whole country for PPP. Rowsey gets points at a rate that few in the country can match. He's lacking in some of the other areas and could see an argument for him being as low as the low 20s.
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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby TAMU Eagle » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:20 pm

FriarJ wrote:I think Alpha Diallo is going to be PC's best player this year and to not even make a top 50 with some of the people I see on this list is mind boggling. Complete fail by the writer.


I would be that writer :D . Keep in mind the rules of the list. This isn't a true top 50 players list. We picked a top 5 from every team and ranked those 50. Diallo was the 5th starter for Providence last season and the 4 players ahead of him came back (assuming Holt isn't lost for the season). We had no reason to believe that Bullock, Cartwright, Holt, or Lindsey would lose their job to Diallo. Throw in a top 40 freshman/2nd highest rated recruit in the Big East and Diallo got pushed out of the top 5 for the Friars.

Diallo may well be the best player on Providence this season, but it would mean that he is going to turn in a way above average improvement from last season. Which absolutely happens but in the interest of being objective we assumed average improvement for all players.
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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby Hall2012 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:07 pm

I find it interesting/surprising that you chose Myles Cale as the 5th Seton Hall player over Ish Sanogo. I'm not sure how you apply your formula to freshmen, but I have to think Is will have a bigger impact this year than Cale.
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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby pki1998 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:58 am

I'm a little of a homer, so i think JP should be ranked higher, but overall no complaints on the list except one. I can't believe T Jones didn't make the top 5 Muskies! My guess is he ends up being the third best player on the team.
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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby kayako » Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:05 pm

The guy's just trying to predict the top 50 (5 from each team) for the upcoming season. It's his discretion to decide who'll likely improve more from the past season and etc. I can totally see why he left out Foster in the top 10.
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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby FriarJ » Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:34 pm

TAMU Eagle wrote:
FriarJ wrote:I think Alpha Diallo is going to be PC's best player this year and to not even make a top 50 with some of the people I see on this list is mind boggling. Complete fail by the writer.


I would be that writer :D . Keep in mind the rules of the list. This isn't a true top 50 players list. We picked a top 5 from every team and ranked those 50. Diallo was the 5th starter for Providence last season and the 4 players ahead of him came back (assuming Holt isn't lost for the season). We had no reason to believe that Bullock, Cartwright, Holt, or Lindsey would lose their job to Diallo. Throw in a top 40 freshman/2nd highest rated recruit in the Big East and Diallo got pushed out of the top 5 for the Friars.

Diallo may well be the best player on Providence this season, but it would mean that he is going to turn in a way above average improvement from last season. Which absolutely happens but in the interest of being objective we assumed average improvement for all players.

You picked a 3 star freshman PG for Butler in the Top 50 over a Top 100 who averaged in double figures after he went into the starting lineup that coincided with PC's run at the end of the season. You missed, it happens.
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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby Hall2012 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:18 pm

FriarJ wrote:
TAMU Eagle wrote:
FriarJ wrote:I think Alpha Diallo is going to be PC's best player this year and to not even make a top 50 with some of the people I see on this list is mind boggling. Complete fail by the writer.


I would be that writer :D . Keep in mind the rules of the list. This isn't a true top 50 players list. We picked a top 5 from every team and ranked those 50. Diallo was the 5th starter for Providence last season and the 4 players ahead of him came back (assuming Holt isn't lost for the season). We had no reason to believe that Bullock, Cartwright, Holt, or Lindsey would lose their job to Diallo. Throw in a top 40 freshman/2nd highest rated recruit in the Big East and Diallo got pushed out of the top 5 for the Friars.

Diallo may well be the best player on Providence this season, but it would mean that he is going to turn in a way above average improvement from last season. Which absolutely happens but in the interest of being objective we assumed average improvement for all players.

You picked a 3 star freshman PG for Butler in the Top 50 over a Top 100 who averaged in double figures after he went into the starting lineup that coincided with PC's run at the end of the season. You missed, it happens.


Reading is fundamental.
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Re: Top 50 Players in the Big East

Postby TAMU Eagle » Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:24 pm

FriarJ wrote:
TAMU Eagle wrote:
FriarJ wrote:I think Alpha Diallo is going to be PC's best player this year and to not even make a top 50 with some of the people I see on this list is mind boggling. Complete fail by the writer.


I would be that writer :D . Keep in mind the rules of the list. This isn't a true top 50 players list. We picked a top 5 from every team and ranked those 50. Diallo was the 5th starter for Providence last season and the 4 players ahead of him came back (assuming Holt isn't lost for the season). We had no reason to believe that Bullock, Cartwright, Holt, or Lindsey would lose their job to Diallo. Throw in a top 40 freshman/2nd highest rated recruit in the Big East and Diallo got pushed out of the top 5 for the Friars.

Diallo may well be the best player on Providence this season, but it would mean that he is going to turn in a way above average improvement from last season. Which absolutely happens but in the interest of being objective we assumed average improvement for all players.

You picked a 3 star freshman PG for Butler in the Top 50 over a Top 100 who averaged in double figures after he went into the starting lineup that coincided with PC's run at the end of the season. You missed, it happens.


Again, we picked a top 5 from each team. Alpha Diallo would have been above Aaron Thompson if he had made the top 5 for Providence. We picked Cartwright, Ashton-Langford, Holt, Lindsey, and one more player in the top 10 coming out tomorrow (you can probably guess who). Diallo isn't on the list because he's not a top 50 player, he's not on this list because we didn't see him as a top 5 player for Providence.
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