The Holy Land of Hoops

Not an exact science but this is taken from the AP top programs list. http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men ... based-poll

With Holtmann leaving, what Top 20 programs could be open in the next 5 years and would a BE coach leave for it?

RANK - SCHOOL - POINTS - Open Soon? - Leave For?
1 Kentucky 1,111 No Yes
2 North Carolina 1,098 Yes Yes
3 Duke 1,032 Yes Yes
4 UCLA 957 No Yes
5 Kansas 857 No Yes
6 Indiana 662 No Yes
7 Louisville 627 Yes Yes
8 Arizona 594 No Yes
9 Syracuse 581 Yes No - Scary to replace legend
10 Cincinnati 500 No No - Not a top job anymore
11 Illinois 479 Yes No - Revolving door
12 Ohio State 453 No Yes
13 Michigan State 434 No Yes
14 Michigan 423 No Yes
15 Georgetown 421 No No - Didn't happen this time
16 Connecticut 402 No No - Assuming still in AAC
17 Maryland 400 No No
18 Notre Dame 382 No Yes
19 Villanova 372 No no - NAssuming no in conference movement
20 Oklahoma 371 No No

Holtmann and Wojo were the 2 coaches most likely to leave at some point. And even still, it took a lot to pry Holtmann away. The other 8 coaches have the potential to be here a long time.

2 of the ones that you have as not being open soon I kind of disagree....
Michigan St. Believe it or not, but Tom Izzo is 62. I don't know how much longer he's going to do it. Already been there 22 years. Not saying he'll definitely be gone, but it's no definite that he'll be there either.
Oklahoma. Lon Krueger is 64. He's also never stayed at a school longer than 8 years. And he's been at Oklahoma 6 years already.

Also not so sure about coaches not leaving for Oklahoma and Maryland. If the school offers the money and length, eventually it gets difficult to say no.

I think you need to put both MD and Oregon in their own category. With Nike and UA money propping up both, I think both would $urely be attractive.

Wright, Mullin and Ewing only leave for the NBA. And Wojo for Duke of course

The rest are a risk to go for any of the big 6 (UNC, Indiana, UCLA, Duke, UK, KU) like every other major conf coach.

BE coaches aren't going to bolt for mid level jobs in another conf. That is a midmajor worry. Butler hasn't been in the BE for long but it took a job like Ohio St and a ton of $$ to pull Holtmann away. They were turned down by two other BE coaches.


More interesting question is which coaches in other conferences could be taken in the future by BE teams.

RedStorm wrote:Wright, Mullin and Ewing only leave for the NBA. And Wojo for Duke of course

The rest are a risk to go for any of the big 6 (UNC, Indiana, UCLA, Duke, UK, KU) like every other major conf coach.

BE coaches aren't going to bolt for mid level jobs in another conf. That is a midmajor worry. Butler hasn't been in the BE for long but it took a job like Ohio St and a ton of $$ to pull Holtmann away. They were turned down by two other BE coaches.


More interesting question is which coaches in other conferences could be taken in the future by BE teams.

But where is Ohio St really in the Big Ten totem pole? Definitely behind Indiana and Michigan St- no doubt about it. I'd probably say behind Michigan and even Wisconsin. So that's right there no more than 4th or 5th. That would be pretty much mid level.

stever20 wrote:

RedStorm wrote:Wright, Mullin and Ewing only leave for the NBA. And Wojo for Duke of course

The rest are a risk to go for any of the big 6 (UNC, Indiana, UCLA, Duke, UK, KU) like every other major conf coach.

BE coaches aren't going to bolt for mid level jobs in another conf. That is a midmajor worry. Butler hasn't been in the BE for long but it took a job like Ohio St and a ton of $$ to pull Holtmann away. They were turned down by two other BE coaches.


More interesting question is which coaches in other conferences could be taken in the future by BE teams.

But where is Ohio St really in the Big Ten totem pole? Definitely behind Indiana and Michigan St- no doubt about it. I'd probably say behind Michigan and even Wisconsin. So that's right there no more than 4th or 5th. That would be pretty much mid level.

i'd put Ohio State is over Wisconsin.

OSU has the history of Jerry Lucas and Havlicek all going way back. Wisconsin on the other hand struggled for decades.

I would say Indiana first, then tie with Michigan State and Ohio State and maybe Michigan... then Illinois and Wisconsin.

stever20 wrote:

RedStorm wrote:Wright, Mullin and Ewing only leave for the NBA. And Wojo for Duke of course

The rest are a risk to go for any of the big 6 (UNC, Indiana, UCLA, Duke, UK, KU) like every other major conf coach.

BE coaches aren't going to bolt for mid level jobs in another conf. That is a midmajor worry. Butler hasn't been in the BE for long but it took a job like Ohio St and a ton of $$ to pull Holtmann away. They were turned down by two other BE coaches.


More interesting question is which coaches in other conferences could be taken in the future by BE teams.

But where is Ohio St really in the Big Ten totem pole? Definitely behind Indiana and Michigan St- no doubt about it. I'd probably say behind Michigan and even Wisconsin. So that's right there no more than 4th or 5th. That would be pretty much mid level.

Ohio st definitely not an elite job but not mid level either. Matta infused a bit of tradition and they have a potentially very high ceiling. And even then, only one coach in the BE wanted the job. Every coach in the AAC not named Ollie or Marshall would kill for that job.......or for Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern for that matter.

AAC schools live in fear of having their coaches poached by the SEC, as all but 2 would bolt for a decent sec job in a heartbeat. No Big East coach would give an SEC school a glance.

RedStorm wrote:

stever20 wrote:

RedStorm wrote:Wright, Mullin and Ewing only leave for the NBA. And Wojo for Duke of course

The rest are a risk to go for any of the big 6 (UNC, Indiana, UCLA, Duke, UK, KU) like every other major conf coach.

BE coaches aren't going to bolt for mid level jobs in another conf. That is a midmajor worry. Butler hasn't been in the BE for long but it took a job like Ohio St and a ton of $$ to pull Holtmann away. They were turned down by two other BE coaches.


More interesting question is which coaches in other conferences could be taken in the future by BE teams.

But where is Ohio St really in the Big Ten totem pole? Definitely behind Indiana and Michigan St- no doubt about it. I'd probably say behind Michigan and even Wisconsin. So that's right there no more than 4th or 5th. That would be pretty much mid level.

Ohio st definitely not an elite job but not mid level either. Matta infused a bit of tradition and they have a potentially very high ceiling. And even then, only one coach in the BE wanted the job. Every coach in the AAC not named Ollie or Marshall would kill for that job.......or for Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern for that matter.

AAC schools live in fear of having their coaches poached by the SEC, as all but 2 would bolt for a decent sec job in a heartbeat. No Big East coach would give an SEC school a glance.

Wojo, and Willard would leave for UK, and Florida in a NY second. Other than that, you're probably right. Even the top A10 coaches are no longer quick to jump at a mid level P5 job, (or mid level BE job for that matter) Shaka turned down many P5 offers before jumping to Texas. Miller waited until Indiana came calling. Sean Miller left a then A10 X program for Arizona. Dan Hurley didn't jump for some crappy P5 program. The days when a Pete Gillen would leave even an MCC Xavier program for PC, are long in the past. Willard, and Wojo are the two coaches who are not long for the BE. For any of the others, it would take either an offer from a UK, KU UNC type program, or the right NBA offer. The NBA can take a coach from nearly anywhere, as we've seen in the past. Even Mullin, and Ewing would find it hard to turn down the Knicks, provided the deal, and the timing was right.

herodotus wrote:
Wojo, and Willard would leave for UK, and Florida in a NY second. Other than that, you're probably right. Even the top A10 coaches are no longer quick to jump at a mid level P5 job, (or mid level BE job for that matter) Shaka turned down many P5 offers before jumping to Texas. Miller waited until Indiana came calling. Sean Miller left a then A10 X program for Arizona. Dan Hurley didn't jump for some crappy P5 program. The days when a Pete Gillen would leave even an MCC Xavier program for PC, are long in the past. Willard, and Wojo are the two coaches who are not long for the BE. For any of the others, it would take either an offer from a UK, KU UNC type program, or the right NBA offer. The NBA can take a coach from nearly anywhere, as we've seen in the past. Even Mullin, and Ewing would find it hard to turn down the Knicks, provided the deal, and the timing was right.

Yeah, I should have said "no SEC school except for UK". I could also see a guy like Willard, who has been on the hot seat in the recent past maybe bolt if he doesn't think the recruiting at SH is looking great.

As for the aforementioned former A10 coaches who were picky in their p5 destinations, they were all elite guys. Not just the usual good coach with prospects.
As for Dan Hurley, he has had a roving eye every offseason. If St. Johns had not hired Mullin he would have jumped at that opportunity without hesitation. I really don't think he is the same caliber coach as some of the other former A10 guys mentioned and he would take many of the gigs they turned down. I think a Tim Jankovick is a much better coach than Hurley and I don't think it would take an elite p6 job for him to leave. I think almost every coach currently in the A10 and AAC would bolt for any B10 or ACC job most SEC jobs.