2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby MarquetteRustler » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:29 am

GumbyDamnit! wrote:
stever20 wrote:
GumbyDamnit! wrote:So I believe 2018 is completely done at this point (anyone can correct me if I am wrong).


Looking at 247 there are still 8 guys left undecided(plus the one who decided to go straight to the G-League) in the top 150. So not quite done yet. And another 9 in the 151-200 range.

Any reason why you didn't do the Pac 12?
Top 50= 9
Top 100= 15
Top 150= 23
Per School= 1.9

Yeah I guess I see why you wouldn't put them on there.


Yeah, good catch. I did forget the Pac12. But it's not some grand conspiracy as you think. As a conference they were so irrelevant this year (did they win any games in March?) that I honestly just overlooked them. But thanks for doing the legwork. They had a good year on the recruiting trail in 2018, no doubt. Let's hope it translates to March success.

BTW, no comments whatsoever on the AAC recruiting classes, huh? Yeah, I guess I see why you'd be quiet there. To be 100% transparent, I did find 1 other Top 150 kid in that AAC class that I had missed so there is hope.

There is a troubling trend that I'd like to show you that you will not enjoy. I looked at the differences in recruiting over the past 5 recruiting cycles, since both new conferences were formed. For those with children at home you might want to have them leave the room at this point.

247 Top 150 recruits per conference :

BE:
2018 - 13
2017 - 15
2016 - 15
2015 - 14
2014 - 20

AAC (and I even counted WSU recruits even when not yet in the conference):
2018 - 4
2017 - 1
2016 - 6
2015 - 11
2014 - 7


I think it is important to look at 3 year averages to see true effectiveness and weed out outliers, and perhaps see a trend. This is in order to not over-penalize for light classes when a program might be stuffed to the brim with players or over-reward one good class. Also this should be divided by # of schools so conferences like the BE and B12 are not competing with 14 and 15 team leagues. So using this methodology:

BE
2018 - 2016 = 1.43 Top 150 players per school, per year
2017 - 2015 = 1.46
2016 - 2014 = 1.63

AAC
2018 - 2016 = 0.31 Top 150 players per school, per year
2017 - 2015 = 0.50
2016 - 2014 = 0.67

So the BE has been pretty consistent in the mid teen range year after year. But man, the AAC is trending downhill and fast. I mean look at WSU as an example. They are graduating a ton of talent but G. Marshall has not been able to replenish with quality recruits. They are in a shiny new conference; you'd think his recruiting message would resonate. But it hasn't. Why can't Cronin get good players to come to Cincy anymore? Temple? SMU? What the hell is going on? What are these latent BB powers in the AAC selling to these kids that they are not buying? I guess you'll have to put all your stock in Penny and Hurley to get the job done because it's clear that the current leadership does not have what it takes.

I think before you continue questioning the BE programs, you need to join with other like-minded AAC fanatics and hold these AAC coaches and programs to a higher standard. As a true fan, you should be equally embarrassed and outraged. You deserve better from your league. I mean the A10 has recruited the same # of Top 150 players the last 2 years as the AAC. That's not good.

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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby FriarJ » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:40 am

GumbyDamnit! wrote:
FriarJ wrote:Gumby, what list is this? 247 has Jimmy Nichols at 114 for 2018.https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Basketball/RecruitRankings?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool


247 has a “composite” ranking that takes into account other services rankings and creates an average. The 247 ranking you linked is their own ranking system. It’s not an exact science but it’s as good a baseline as any.

Thanks to both of you for answering, makes perfect sense and I'm sure I knew that. Old age.
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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby GumbyDamnit! » Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:31 pm

Stever20 wrote:

I just love how Big East fans want to bring up the AAC in recruiting, but then want nothing to do with them in season comparisons. And I love how folks in recruiting talks want to automatically take out Kentucky and Duke and act like they don't count. Big East IS #6 in recruiting top 150 players.....

Pac 12 23/12 1.92 per school
Big Ten 25/14 1.78 per school
SEC 24/14 1.71 per school
Big 12 15/10 1.50 per school
ACC 22/15 1.47 per school
Big East 13/10 1.30 per school



First of all, do you know what's funny about the above post (that I grabbed from the other site), where you seem to be puffing your chest out with the BE at the bottom of the P6 recruiting rankings? You don't reference the AAC. Let me help you.

AAC 2018 4/12 .33 per school
AAC 2017 1/12 .08 per school

BE average the last 2 years = 1.45
AAC average the last 2 years = 0.21

So on average for every 1 Top 150 player that the AAC has gotten the last 2 years, the BE has gotten 7. Let that sink in and remember it next time you want to peddle your nonsense about how similar the conferences are aside from "luck." Name a metric that you want to compare the two conferences: Head to head? # of tourney bids? Recruiting? March success? RPI? KenPom? Which do you feel most accurately reflects conference strength and compare the two conferences. There is no data-based way to remotely consider them comparable. None. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

Also the recruiting #s you cite are a single year snapshot. In 2017 the B1G10 brought in 1.36 Top 150 players per school. The BE brought in 1.50. But wait, you are quick to say that the BE is last of the P6 in recruiting. I guess not in 2017 then. And probably not in 2014 when they were at 2.0 per school. But whatever...cherry pick away. Here's the point. The difference in per player average between the BE and the other power programs is not statistically significant from year to year (especially when you consider the # of OAd's that bolt after 1 year in the other P6 conferences). We've averaged around 1.5 Top 150 payers per team which is right in line with the other 5 major conferences. If we are going to consider the AAC a major conference then they'd be over 1 per school, not .20 per school and they'd better be in the top 3-4 of RPI some year, any year, and have some March wins. None of that is happening.

So why are you forcing us to keep defending that the BE is rightfully a Top 6 MAJOR conference and the AAC is NOT it's equal. It's like me saying that the AAC and the Patriot are equals and then dismissing every data point that you present that contradicts it. I doesn't matter if these schools were once good. For the past 4 years they have not been. Will they someday? Maybe, but that day is not today. Get over it.

What else ya' got?
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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby jfan » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:14 pm

To put things in perspective, Providence (5), Nova (5) and Creighton (5), as individual teams, all had the same amount of top 150 recruits as all the AAC teams combined (5) for the past two years.
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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby adoraz » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:29 pm

Anyone care to do a Top 50 conference per team comparison (including Duke/UK)? Stever?
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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby adoraz » Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:08 pm

BE 2018 class (247):
1-50: 6 players
51-100: 1 player (7)
101-150: 4 players (11)
151-200: 8 players (19)

201-250 is also good for the BE (5) while 251-300 is weak (1), but at a certain point the player's ranking is too low for them to be relevant. I think nearly everyone in the P6 would take players in the 151-200 range, however.

So what is the cut-off?

Well, for someone like Stever, the cut-off would be Top 100 or Top 150, because by those measures BE would be bottom of the P6. However, if you look at Top 50 or Top 200 then BE would be upper half of the P6 (I'm too lazy to calculate everything, but I'm pretty sure they would be). I took a quick look and I believe the BE has more players per team in the 151-200 range than any other conference.

Bottom line, if you look at Top 50 or Top 200 then BE is towards the top. If you look at Top 100 or Top 150 then BE is at the bottom. Either way, it is clear there is a P6 divide and that the BE is a strong part of that.

One of the best at the top (1-50) and in terms of depth (1-200). Very balanced and strong class overall.
Last edited by adoraz on Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby ArmyVet » Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:13 pm

It's only my opinion, but I am relatively confident that the Big East isn't involved in the shoe company "quid pro quo" sending kids to affiliated schools. So many of those top level kids don't even sniff our league which is just fine.
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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby stever20 » Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:38 pm

This class is really a different class compared to the other classes that the Big East has gotten. More top guys, but then no where near as many guys in that 51-150 range that the league normally kicks tail in. Last year had 11 guys in that 51-150 range. 2 years ago 13. This year... only 5.
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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby GumbyDamnit! » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:14 pm

stever20 wrote:This class is really a different class compared to the other classes that the Big East has gotten. More top guys, but then no where near as many guys in that 51-150 range that the league normally kicks tail in. Last year had 11 guys in that 51-150 range. 2 years ago 13. This year... only 5.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Could not make this stuff if I tried. So if those top guys were in the 51-150 range instead of Top 50 it would be better? Hilarious.
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Re: 2018 Recruiting Class Could Be The Best Yet

Postby adoraz » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:56 pm

stever20 wrote:This class is really a different class compared to the other classes that the Big East has gotten. More top guys, but then no where near as many guys in that 51-150 range that the league normally kicks tail in. Last year had 11 guys in that 51-150 range. 2 years ago 13. This year... only 5.


While this is true, you're just going to ignore that the BE has more players per team (0.8) in the 151-200 range than any other conference?

I think the class actually looks very similar to past classes. Just some players moved up to the 1-50 range and some down to the 151-200 range. I'd argue that's a good thing.

Top 50:
PAC 12: 9/12 (.750)
SEC: 11/16 (.688)
BE: 6/10 (.600)
ACC: 8/15 (.533)
B12: 4/10 (.400)
B1G: 5/14 (.357)
No Team: 6

I missed one team and can't figure out who, but overall BE is 3rd in Top 50 (unless the missing team is ACC, then this list remains the same). I think we're better than 6th in Top 200, but too much of an effort to figure that out.
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