Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:05 pm
GumbyDamnit! wrote:CrawfishBucket wrote:
Like everything else, context is everything.
If the AAC would've chosen programs strictly going by their current basketball metrics (say Dayton and VCU) the rankings would be different.
The AAC didn't go that route. They decided to build basketball programs at schools that fit the all-sports model. So far, they're yielding pretty decent results. SMU was a 30 win team last year. UCF and Houston got the bye (3rd and 4th seed) in their conference tournament and made the NIT. Each of those teams will be good this year.
The problem has been UConn's struggles with injuries and Memphis rebuilding due to a coaching transition from Pastner to Tubby Smith. Cincinnati also won 30 games last year.
Outside of ECU, there has been an overhaul at USF (Brian Gregory), Tulane (Mike Dunleavy), UCF (Dawkins), SMU (Jankovich), Houston (Sampson), Tulsa (Haith), and Memphis (Tubby).
Only Gregg Marshall (Wichita), Mick Cronin (Cincinnati), Fran Dunphy (Temple), Kevin Ollie (UConn), and Lebo (ECU), were in place before their transition from the OBE to the AAC.
That's why the RPI doesn't say very much. They built their league using a different model than the NBE.
I respect what they've done. Ollie already won a championship in the AAC, so he's gotten some leeway. Dunphy had similar issues with injuries last year as well.
With Wichita State coming in, this will be a big year for the American. It will be a lot closer to the real measure of the league given those new coaches will be closer to having a near full roster of players. Wichita is a Top 5 team with Landry Shamut.
CFB...wah, wah wah...injuries. Everyone gets injuries. Look at X and Creighton last year. Both lose 1st team all-league (and AA) candidates but they keep on marching. Nova loses Spellman and Booth. Don't get me started on how unlucky PC has been with losing players (Ledo, Austin, kids bolting to the NBA, etc.). But they keep winning.
"That's why the RPI doesn't say much...they built their league using a different model." What does this even mean? Are you actually disputing that a league finishing 8th in RPI is somehow much better than what the data suggests? Are you trying to simply state that you THINK the AAC is on the right path. Because that is just a casual opinion with zero basis in fact. How many tourney games has the AAC won in the past 3 years? You guys think you are making these big strides, but here's the thing... you are what your record says. And the AAC has been very pedestrian. You say, just wait until UConn and Temple and Memphis right the ship. Yeah, we have a couple of those programs ourselves: Georgetown, St. John's and DePaul. Heck, even Marq has been only a shell of what is once was. Do you hear anyone crying about those programs taking a step back? Imagine this league if just G'town and Marq. performed like they did the last 10 years of the BE. Sounds a little like UConn, no?
Stever lectured to me in a thread that the SEC was a sleeping giant and had hired (coaches) well and were recruiting at a very high level. So they probably are not within reach of the AAC on any long term basis. So who do you think you really compete with? The P12? The BE? B10? Really? You guys compete with the A10. Nothing wrong with that. The A10 is a decent high mid-major league. And for the last 4 years they have collectively been a better conference than the AAC. Sorry you don't like the RPI but show me the empirical data that suggests I am wrong.
You're a G'town fan too, huh? Yeah, OK.
This may be a foreign concept but not everything we write needs to be partisan.
We can be a fan of this conference and still acknowledge trends in the data.
There was a heck of a lot of turnover in that conference (the American) when they brought programs up. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to count the number of players on those rosters last year. It also doesn't take a rocket scientist to note they added a Top 10 squad as well.
You have to look at the budgets/brands/etc. A lot of other really good conferences have had lean years. It's not like the SEC wasn't down to two bids a few years ago.
As fans we just let it play out. I'm not under any illusion that its always going to be roses either. It's college basketball.