CrawfishBucket wrote:GumbyDamnit! wrote:Stever I love your words like "could" and "chance" and "possible" and then follow it up as if all are absolute certainties. Also, in any single year it is certainly possible for a second tier league to crack the top 6. I mean the A10 did it a couple years back. A single good year here and there doesn't support your contention. You need to look at 3, 4 and 5 year trends. That data builds the foundation of fact, not projections.
Over the past 4 years the AAC has been the 8th best conference behind the obvious top 6 and the A10. With the addition of Wich St there is a "chance" and a "possibility" that they "could" move up out of the 8th spot, but nothing is a certainty and they'd have to do it for several years, not one. So either we can continue to have this discussion based on fact or we can just throw that out the window and all make wild definitive statements based solely on our own subjectivity with a bevy of "coulds" and "possiblys."
The AAC looks in good shape. Wichita brings them back to the way they looked with Louisville in year 1. Didn't they have something like 5 ranked teams that year?
Since that time they've hired very well. I think a lot of people are underplaying the brands they have. They don't lack for star power.
stever20 wrote:I don't think the A10 has been ahead of the AAC the last 4 years. Lets review
2014- sure A10 got 6 teams in, but AAC had 4 teams, and also had the national champion. AAC 7 in KP, A10 8.
2015- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. A10 7, AAC 9
2016- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 4. AAC 7, A10 8
2017- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. AAC 7, A10 8
So in 3 of the 4 years, the AAC has been the stronger conference than the A10.
Gopher+RamFan wrote:stever20 wrote:I don't think the A10 has been ahead of the AAC the last 4 years. Lets review
2014- sure A10 got 6 teams in, but AAC had 4 teams, and also had the national champion. AAC 7 in KP, A10 8.
2015- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. A10 7, AAC 9
2016- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 4. AAC 7, A10 8
2017- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. AAC 7, A10 8
So in 3 of the 4 years, the AAC has been the stronger conference than the A10.
KenPom is great, but when you're citing KP numbers to state that the AAC was better over the last 4 years, then the A10 when they've had less bids (the ultimate measure) that's wrong.
AAC will most assuredly be better over the next few years - I think.
Gopher+RamFan wrote:stever20 wrote:I don't think the A10 has been ahead of the AAC the last 4 years. Lets review
2014- sure A10 got 6 teams in, but AAC had 4 teams, and also had the national champion. AAC 7 in KP, A10 8.
2015- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. A10 7, AAC 9
2016- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 4. AAC 7, A10 8
2017- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. AAC 7, A10 8
So in 3 of the 4 years, the AAC has been the stronger conference than the A10.
KenPom is great, but when you're citing KP numbers to state that the AAC was better over the last 4 years, then the A10 when they've had less bids (the ultimate measure) that's wrong.
AAC will most assuredly be better over the next few years - I think.
NJRedman wrote:CrawfishBucket wrote:GumbyDamnit! wrote:Stever I love your words like "could" and "chance" and "possible" and then follow it up as if all are absolute certainties. Also, in any single year it is certainly possible for a second tier league to crack the top 6. I mean the A10 did it a couple years back. A single good year here and there doesn't support your contention. You need to look at 3, 4 and 5 year trends. That data builds the foundation of fact, not projections.
Over the past 4 years the AAC has been the 8th best conference behind the obvious top 6 and the A10. With the addition of Wich St there is a "chance" and a "possibility" that they "could" move up out of the 8th spot, but nothing is a certainty and they'd have to do it for several years, not one. So either we can continue to have this discussion based on fact or we can just throw that out the window and all make wild definitive statements based solely on our own subjectivity with a bevy of "coulds" and "possiblys."
The AAC looks in good shape. Wichita brings them back to the way they looked with Louisville in year 1. Didn't they have something like 5 ranked teams that year?
Since that time they've hired very well. I think a lot of people are underplaying the brands they have. They don't lack for star power.
Okay Stevers second account.
stever20 wrote:Gopher+RamFan wrote:stever20 wrote:I don't think the A10 has been ahead of the AAC the last 4 years. Lets review
2014- sure A10 got 6 teams in, but AAC had 4 teams, and also had the national champion. AAC 7 in KP, A10 8.
2015- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. A10 7, AAC 9
2016- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 4. AAC 7, A10 8
2017- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. AAC 7, A10 8
So in 3 of the 4 years, the AAC has been the stronger conference than the A10.
KenPom is great, but when you're citing KP numbers to state that the AAC was better over the last 4 years, then the A10 when they've had less bids (the ultimate measure) that's wrong.
AAC will most assuredly be better over the next few years - I think.
And a lot of what the A10 did was in 2014, when the AAC team won the national champion, so that trumps the A10's 6 bids even there. And the numbers we're using are without Wichita, a perennial top 25 team. That's going to make it even worse for the A10.
Also would say look at the highest seeds the conferences get. AAC in last 3 years has gotten 3 6 seeds. The top A10 seeds have been 3 7's. Even go back to 2014, A10 got a 5 seed, but AAC got a 4 seed.
GumbyDamnit! wrote:stever20 wrote:And a lot of what the A10 did was in 2014, when the AAC team won the national champion, so that trumps the A10's 6 bids even there. And the numbers we're using are without Wichita, a perennial top 25 team. That's going to make it even worse for the A10.
Also would say look at the highest seeds the conferences get. AAC in last 3 years has gotten 3 6 seeds. The top A10 seeds have been 3 7's. Even go back to 2014, A10 got a 5 seed, but AAC got a 4 seed.
Look Stever I get that you are desperately trying to find any metric to make you feel vindicated about your opinion. Now you are saying how important KenPom is and tourney seeding (did I get that right?), and that 2014 should be discounted for the A10 (huh?). But I recall prior to Nova winning the NC, the only thing that was important according to you, were bids and NCAA wins. Now a single NC "trumps all" even though it's a debate about the collective performances not individual ones. So even if you discount 2014 for the A10, just know that in the last 3 years the A10 has had more bids and wins in March. I fear that you are talking in circles just hoping for anything to fit the narrative.
Here's my take...
Average RPI ranking last 4 years:
B12 - 1.25
ACC - 3.00
BE - 3.25
B10 - 3.75
P12 - 4.00
SEC - 6.00
A10 - 7.00
AAC - 7.75
My observations.
1. B12 has been consistently exceptional. Very impressive conference #'s the last 4 years.
2. Tier I is really a P5. BE, ACC, B12, B10, P12. Each of these conferences has been ranked at least as high as #2 for at least 1 of the past 4 years.
3. Tier II are the other 3. None of those 3 have finished higher than 5th in any of the past 4 years.
4. The AAC has not finished higher than 7th in each of it's 4 years (even when they had L'ville for 14)
5. So, at the very best the AAC may make a move towards 6th if everything falls right and they buck the recent trend. But the problem is if you look at the collective recruiting classes of SEC schools and AAC schools, there is a huge chasm. So unless you are expecting the AAC to do anything other than battle the A10 for 7th your expectations may be unrealistic.
6. The BE is a damn good conference... but you already knew that, right? I mean, why else would you come on this board unless you were a fan of the conference.
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