The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

[NJRedman]

Stever I love your words like "could" and "chance" and "possible" and then follow it up as if all are absolute certainties. Also, in any single year it is certainly possible for a second tier league to crack the top 6. I mean the A10 did it a couple years back. A single good year here and there doesn't support your contention. You need to look at 3, 4 and 5 year trends. That data builds the foundation of fact, not projections.

Over the past 4 years the AAC has been the 8th best conference behind the obvious top 6 and the A10. With the addition of Wich St there is a "chance" and a "possibility" that they "could" move up out of the 8th spot, but nothing is a certainty and they'd have to do it for several years, not one. So either we can continue to have this discussion based on fact or we can just throw that out the window and all make wild definitive statements based solely on our own subjectivity with a bevy of "coulds" and "possiblys."

The AAC looks in good shape. Wichita brings them back to the way they looked with Louisville in year 1. Didn't they have something like 5 ranked teams that year?

Since that time they've hired very well. I think a lot of people are underplaying the brands they have. They don't lack for star power.

Okay Stevers second account.

[jaxalum]

Stever/Crawfishbucket. Seriously, for the 100th time, why do you have such a hard on for the AAC?

Plenty of other conferences are mentioned, compared, downplayed etc and all you do is justify, rationalize, condone, defend, and advocate for the AAC. WHy don't you do that for the A-10, or the WAC, or the Patriot? Why ALWAYS the AAC? What's the connection?

And even more so, why do you refuse to answer this rediculously obvious question? No one gets it. Just tell us why you are so fervently for the AAC? You are a middle aged, mid 40s man. It's embarrassing that you can't just answer a simple question, but instead you deny, ignore, or blatantly lie. Grow up and just answer a simple question. I can't stand Dayton fans, and the ones on here are moslty insufferable and have no reason to be here, but at least they identify themselves as UDumpster fans. Why can't you come clean Stever? What are you so afraid of?

[Gopher+RamFan]

I don't think the A10 has been ahead of the AAC the last 4 years. Lets review
2014- sure A10 got 6 teams in, but AAC had 4 teams, and also had the national champion. AAC 7 in KP, A10 8.
2015- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. A10 7, AAC 9
2016- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 4. AAC 7, A10 8
2017- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. AAC 7, A10 8

So in 3 of the 4 years, the AAC has been the stronger conference than the A10.

KenPom is great, but when you're citing KP numbers to state that the AAC was better over the last 4 years, then the A10 when they've had less bids (the ultimate measure) that's wrong.

AAC will most assuredly be better over the next few years - I think.

[milksteak]

I don't think the A10 has been ahead of the AAC the last 4 years. Lets review
2014- sure A10 got 6 teams in, but AAC had 4 teams, and also had the national champion. AAC 7 in KP, A10 8.
2015- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. A10 7, AAC 9
2016- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 4. AAC 7, A10 8
2017- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. AAC 7, A10 8

So in 3 of the 4 years, the AAC has been the stronger conference than the A10.

KenPom is great, but when you're citing KP numbers to state that the AAC was better over the last 4 years, then the A10 when they've had less bids (the ultimate measure) that's wrong.

AAC will most assuredly be better over the next few years - I think.

You don't spend enough time here, do you? Stever uses whatever statistics fit his narrative. That's if he even uses statistics at all...

[stever20]

I don't think the A10 has been ahead of the AAC the last 4 years. Lets review
2014- sure A10 got 6 teams in, but AAC had 4 teams, and also had the national champion. AAC 7 in KP, A10 8.
2015- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. A10 7, AAC 9
2016- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 4. AAC 7, A10 8
2017- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. AAC 7, A10 8

So in 3 of the 4 years, the AAC has been the stronger conference than the A10.

KenPom is great, but when you're citing KP numbers to state that the AAC was better over the last 4 years, then the A10 when they've had less bids (the ultimate measure) that's wrong.

AAC will most assuredly be better over the next few years - I think.

And a lot of what the A10 did was in 2014, when the AAC team won the national champion, so that trumps the A10's 6 bids even there. And the numbers we're using are without Wichita, a perennial top 25 team. That's going to make it even worse for the A10.

Also would say look at the highest seeds the conferences get. AAC in last 3 years has gotten 3 6 seeds. The top A10 seeds have been 3 7's. Even go back to 2014, A10 got a 5 seed, but AAC got a 4 seed.

[Bluejay]

Stever I love your words like "could" and "chance" and "possible" and then follow it up as if all are absolute certainties. Also, in any single year it is certainly possible for a second tier league to crack the top 6. I mean the A10 did it a couple years back. A single good year here and there doesn't support your contention. You need to look at 3, 4 and 5 year trends. That data builds the foundation of fact, not projections.

Over the past 4 years the AAC has been the 8th best conference behind the obvious top 6 and the A10. With the addition of Wich St there is a "chance" and a "possibility" that they "could" move up out of the 8th spot, but nothing is a certainty and they'd have to do it for several years, not one. So either we can continue to have this discussion based on fact or we can just throw that out the window and all make wild definitive statements based solely on our own subjectivity with a bevy of "coulds" and "possiblys."

The AAC looks in good shape. Wichita brings them back to the way they looked with Louisville in year 1. Didn't they have something like 5 ranked teams that year?

Since that time they've hired very well. I think a lot of people are underplaying the brands they have. They don't lack for star power.

Okay Stevers second account.

I still think Crawfish Bucket is a Wichita St fan.... The screen name is way too redneck for a fan of a school out east, but very Wichitan. The Gregg Marshall love and Creighton hate is a big clue as well. However, the most cogent piece of evidence might be that he didn't appear on this board until right around the time that WSU changed conferences. Once that happened, he felt the need to start defending the AAC...

[GumbyDamnit!]

I don't think the A10 has been ahead of the AAC the last 4 years. Lets review
2014- sure A10 got 6 teams in, but AAC had 4 teams, and also had the national champion. AAC 7 in KP, A10 8.
2015- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. A10 7, AAC 9
2016- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 4. AAC 7, A10 8
2017- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. AAC 7, A10 8

So in 3 of the 4 years, the AAC has been the stronger conference than the A10.

KenPom is great, but when you're citing KP numbers to state that the AAC was better over the last 4 years, then the A10 when they've had less bids (the ultimate measure) that's wrong.

AAC will most assuredly be better over the next few years - I think.

And a lot of what the A10 did was in 2014, when the AAC team won the national champion, so that trumps the A10's 6 bids even there. And the numbers we're using are without Wichita, a perennial top 25 team. That's going to make it even worse for the A10.

Also would say look at the highest seeds the conferences get. AAC in last 3 years has gotten 3 6 seeds. The top A10 seeds have been 3 7's. Even go back to 2014, A10 got a 5 seed, but AAC got a 4 seed.

Look Stever I get that you are desperately trying to find any metric to make you feel vindicated about your opinion. Now you are saying how important KenPom is and tourney seeding (did I get that right?), and that 2014 should be discounted for the A10 (huh?). But I recall prior to Nova winning the NC, the only thing that was important according to you, were bids and NCAA wins. Now a single NC "trumps all" even though it's a debate about the collective performances not individual ones. So even if you discount 2014 for the A10, just know that in the last 3 years the A10 has had more bids and wins in March. I fear that you are talking in circles just hoping for anything to fit the narrative.

Here's my take...

Average RPI ranking last 4 years:

B12 - 1.25
ACC - 3.00
BE - 3.25
B10 - 3.75
P12 - 4.00
SEC - 6.00
A10 - 7.00
AAC - 7.75

My observations.
1. B12 has been consistently exceptional. Very impressive conference #'s the last 4 years.
2. Tier I is really a P5. BE, ACC, B12, B10, P12. Each of these conferences has been ranked at least as high as #2 for at least 1 of the past 4 years.
3. Tier II are the other 3. None of those 3 have finished higher than 5th in any of the past 4 years.
4. The AAC has not finished higher than 7th in each of it's 4 years (even when they had L'ville for 14)
5. So, at the very best the AAC may make a move towards 6th if everything falls right and they buck the recent trend. But the problem is if you look at the collective recruiting classes of SEC schools and AAC schools, there is a huge chasm. So unless you are expecting the AAC to do anything other than battle the A10 for 7th your expectations may be unrealistic.
6. The BE is a damn good conference... but you already knew that, right? I mean, why else would you come on this board unless you were a fan of the conference.

[stever20]

the reason why 2014 should be discounted for the A10 is that if you look at the trend- they have 6,3,3,3 bids. What's the exception? The 6 of course. The league has deteriorated a lot.
2014 .5535 rpi 127-54 OOC .702 pct
2015 .5265 rpi 99-64 OOC .607 pct
2016 .5341 rpi 109-57 OOC .657 pct
2017 .5227 rpi 104-66 OOC .612 pct

2014 was totally the outlier. Now, if it was the most recent season, you'd have a lot easier job convincing me that's the way the league is trending. But it's not. Last year they had their worst conference RPI since at least 2013.

The problem that I have with folks with the AAC is they want to completely ignore what Wichita brings. Wichita by themselves has as many wins as the entire A10 the last 3 years in the NCAA tourney. It's a move that I don't think anyone can argue is going to make a huge difference. Folks here just want to compare what the AAC was to what the A10 was. The problem is the old AAC is no more. And even there, you could make a pretty fair argument that the Old AAC the last 2 years in particular was stronger than the A10.

[CrawfishBucket]

And a lot of what the A10 did was in 2014, when the AAC team won the national champion, so that trumps the A10's 6 bids even there. And the numbers we're using are without Wichita, a perennial top 25 team. That's going to make it even worse for the A10.

Also would say look at the highest seeds the conferences get. AAC in last 3 years has gotten 3 6 seeds. The top A10 seeds have been 3 7's. Even go back to 2014, A10 got a 5 seed, but AAC got a 4 seed.

Look Stever I get that you are desperately trying to find any metric to make you feel vindicated about your opinion. Now you are saying how important KenPom is and tourney seeding (did I get that right?), and that 2014 should be discounted for the A10 (huh?). But I recall prior to Nova winning the NC, the only thing that was important according to you, were bids and NCAA wins. Now a single NC "trumps all" even though it's a debate about the collective performances not individual ones. So even if you discount 2014 for the A10, just know that in the last 3 years the A10 has had more bids and wins in March. I fear that you are talking in circles just hoping for anything to fit the narrative.

Here's my take...

Average RPI ranking last 4 years:

B12 - 1.25
ACC - 3.00
BE - 3.25
B10 - 3.75
P12 - 4.00
SEC - 6.00
A10 - 7.00
AAC - 7.75

My observations.
1. B12 has been consistently exceptional. Very impressive conference #'s the last 4 years.
2. Tier I is really a P5. BE, ACC, B12, B10, P12. Each of these conferences has been ranked at least as high as #2 for at least 1 of the past 4 years.
3. Tier II are the other 3. None of those 3 have finished higher than 5th in any of the past 4 years.
4. The AAC has not finished higher than 7th in each of it's 4 years (even when they had L'ville for 14)
5. So, at the very best the AAC may make a move towards 6th if everything falls right and they buck the recent trend. But the problem is if you look at the collective recruiting classes of SEC schools and AAC schools, there is a huge chasm. So unless you are expecting the AAC to do anything other than battle the A10 for 7th your expectations may be unrealistic.
6. The BE is a damn good conference... but you already knew that, right? I mean, why else would you come on this board unless you were a fan of the conference.

Like everything else, context is everything.

If the AAC would've chosen programs strictly going by their current basketball metrics (say Dayton and VCU) the rankings would be different.

The AAC didn't go that route. They decided to build basketball programs at schools that fit the all-sports model. So far, they're yielding pretty decent results. SMU was a 30 win team last year. UCF and Houston got the bye (3rd and 4th seed) in their conference tournament and made the NIT. Each of those teams will be good this year.

The problem has been UConn's struggles with injuries and Memphis rebuilding due to a coaching transition from Pastner to Tubby Smith. Cincinnati also won 30 games last year.

Outside of ECU, there has been an overhaul at USF (Brian Gregory), Tulane (Mike Dunleavy), UCF (Dawkins), SMU (Jankovich), Houston (Sampson), Tulsa (Haith), and Memphis (Tubby).
Only Gregg Marshall (Wichita), Mick Cronin (Cincinnati), Fran Dunphy (Temple), Kevin Ollie (UConn), and Lebo (ECU), were in place before their transition from the OBE to the AAC.

That's why the RPI doesn't say very much. They built their league using a different model than the NBE.

I respect what they've done. Ollie already won a championship in the AAC, so he's gotten some leeway. Dunphy had similar issues with injuries last year as well.

With Wichita State coming in, this will be a big year for the American. It will be a lot closer to the real measure of the league given those new coaches will be closer to having a near full roster of players. Wichita is a Top 5 team with Landry Shamut.

[EMT]

If only the teams in the AAC shared the optimism of Stever/Crawfish......