The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby X-man » Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:52 pm

stever20 wrote:
adoraz wrote:We're about 60% of the way through OOC play, and barring some March runs by the 3-4 AAC teams that get in, this has to be underwhelming. With the way they are recruiting, this was really the year for them to make a statement.

AAC had a solid first year (with Louisville), but aside from that they haven't stepped up.

It's closer to 50% but still your point is pretty valid.

The one thing will be- Cincy and Wichita should get really good seeds- looking at Lunardi's bracketology today, he's got Wichita as a 2, Cincy as a 3. Those are condusive to good runs.

"Conclusive to good runs???" WTF! You might want to check Cincinnati's tournament record over the last 25 years or so. They consistently underperform, nearly always losing on the first weekend to a lower seeded team.
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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby stever20 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:11 pm

X-man wrote:
stever20 wrote:
adoraz wrote:We're about 60% of the way through OOC play, and barring some March runs by the 3-4 AAC teams that get in, this has to be underwhelming. With the way they are recruiting, this was really the year for them to make a statement.

AAC had a solid first year (with Louisville), but aside from that they haven't stepped up.

It's closer to 50% but still your point is pretty valid.

The one thing will be- Cincy and Wichita should get really good seeds- looking at Lunardi's bracketology today, he's got Wichita as a 2, Cincy as a 3. Those are condusive to good runs.

"Conclusive to good runs???" WTF! You might want to check Cincinnati's tournament record over the last 25 years or so. They consistently underperform, nearly always losing on the first weekend to a lower seeded team.

just looking at the last few years
2017- was a 6 seed, lost in rd 2 to a 3 seed
2016- was a 9 seed. Sure lost to 8 seed- but that's no upset ever
2015- was a 8 seed. lost in rd 2 to a 1 seed
2014- was a 5 seed. Lost to 12 seed in rd 1
2013- was a 10 seed. Lost in rd 1 to a 7 seed(Creighton)
2012- was a 6 seed. Lost in RSF to a 2 seed
2011- was a 6 seed. Lost in rd 2 to a 3 seed

So really in those 7 years only 1 upset and only 2 total if you give a 9/8 game. And in all of those, never as 2 or 3 seed. Yes they did have some upsets back in the old Bob Huggins days- but how relevant is that?
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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby GumbyDamnit! » Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:32 pm

I think it would not be accurate to call either Cincy or Wich St. middling teams. They are both very good teams this year. Just watching them you can see that.

The problem and frankly the BE has experienced this as well, is that if you don't get quality depth from a conference into the tourney you are really putting stress on the top teams. Some years teams like Nova get a good seed and make a run; other years they hit a tough opponent that is not a great matchup (see Wiscy vs both Nova & X) and they bow out early. March is a fickle bitch, as they say.

Its akin to a golf scramble. To win those things you need to see more than 1 or 2 puts on each green. You need 3 or 4 looks at it. You need everyone to be at least a threat to do some damage. If you rely on one or two big hitters, you eventually lose some strokes. The tourney is no different. In the years that Nova loses early, X picks them up and visa-versa. Butler wins a couple games one year and CU and PC do the next. Point is if the AAC is hoping that their two quality teams are just going to pull the sleigh by themselves, that is expecting an awful lot of things to go just right for them. I can see both being 3 seeds and their fans squirming in the R32 when facing a 6 like Minnesota or L'ville type of team that is just as athletic and have faced plenty of tough teams throughout the year. That's the single biggest problem IMO for a team ranked high with pressure who has had a less than challenging conference slate.
Go Nova!
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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby sju88grad » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:02 pm

Another banner night for the AAC. Powerhouse Elon beats USF and Memphis loses by 15 to UAB. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby stever20 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:08 pm

sju88grad wrote:Another banner night for the AAC. Powerhouse Elon beats USF and Memphis loses by 15 to UAB. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

And Temple is beating South Carolina by 11 points. UCF down only by 6 to Missouri early 2nd half. If AAC would get both of those wins, that's a good night.
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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby GoldenWarrior11 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:30 am

stever20 wrote:
sju88grad wrote:Another banner night for the AAC. Powerhouse Elon beats USF and Memphis loses by 15 to UAB. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

And Temple is beating South Carolina by 11 points. UCF down only by 6 to Missouri early 2nd half. If AAC would get both of those wins, that's a good night.


UCF lost to Missouri. Somehow, I think that despite AAC loses to Elon, UAB and Missouri, it will somehow get spun by our resident AAC representative that is was a good night. :roll:
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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby GumbyDamnit! » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:31 am

stever20 wrote:
sju88grad wrote:Another banner night for the AAC. Powerhouse Elon beats USF and Memphis loses by 15 to UAB. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

And Temple is beating South Carolina by 11 points. UCF down only by 6 to Missouri early 2nd half. If AAC would get both of those wins, that's a good night.


South Carolina is not good.

UCF lost to a BAD team.

Memphis is really bad.

Gun to your head...who in the AAC makes the tourney outside of WSU and Cincy?
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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby stever20 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:44 am

GumbyDamnit! wrote:
stever20 wrote:
sju88grad wrote:Another banner night for the AAC. Powerhouse Elon beats USF and Memphis loses by 15 to UAB. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

And Temple is beating South Carolina by 11 points. UCF down only by 6 to Missouri early 2nd half. If AAC would get both of those wins, that's a good night.


South Carolina is not good.

UCF lost to a BAD team.

Memphis is really bad.

Gun to your head...who in the AAC makes the tourney outside of WSU and Cincy?

SMU and Temple should get in pretty easily...

Temple has projected #21 OOC SOS and #32 overall SOS. With those numbers, if they get to 18 wins, they're going to have a top 40 RPI with a good SOS. Teams like that get in easily...
SMU has an easier schedule- but still #109 OOC SOS and #74 overall SOS. And accordingly they're projected with 22 wins. 22-9 with their SOS is projected to be a 44.5 RPI. Teams like that generally get in pretty much every time. If they can split with USC and TCU, they're in really good shape. That Arizona win will resonate all year long.

Missouri is not a BAD team. And if they are, what does that say about St Johns, whom they beat by 8? And UCF is missing their best player.

And really wouldn't count out UConn yet. They have projected #8 OOC SOS and #26 overall SOS. If they get to 19 wins they're in pretty easily.

The AAC can get 5 in way more likely than getting only 2 in.
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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby X-man » Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:10 am

[quote="stever20]It's closer to 50% but still your point is pretty valid.

The one thing will be- Cincy and Wichita should get really good seeds- looking at Lunardi's bracketology today, he's got Wichita as a 2, Cincy as a 3. Those are condusive to good runs.[/quote]
"Conclusive to good runs???" WTF! You might want to check Cincinnati's tournament record over the last 25 years or so. They consistently underperform, nearly always losing on the first weekend to a lower seeded team.[/quote]
just looking at the last few years
2017- was a 6 seed, lost in rd 2 to a 3 seed
2016- was a 9 seed. Sure lost to 8 seed- but that's no upset ever
2015- was a 8 seed. lost in rd 2 to a 1 seed
2014- was a 5 seed. Lost to 12 seed in rd 1
2013- was a 10 seed. Lost in rd 1 to a 7 seed(Creighton)
2012- was a 6 seed. Lost in RSF to a 2 seed
2011- was a 6 seed. Lost in rd 2 to a 3 seed

So really in those 7 years only 1 upset and only 2 total if you give a 9/8 game. And in all of those, never as 2 or 3 seed. Yes they did have some upsets back in the old Bob Huggins days- but how relevant is that?[/quote]
C'mon, stever, You seem to spend all day doing "research". I stated that uc has underperformed consistently if you look at the last 25 years or so, not 7. What does the time frame that I stated show? Don't use some other time period than the one I specifically said to look at as a way to argue that my statement wasn't correct.
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Re: The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

Postby MullinMayhem » Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:11 am

To be fair, Mizzou looked like a pretty good team, they are definitely not bad they almost beat a ranked WVU team to win the Advocare Championship without their lottery pick stud Porter. Maybe they just played the game of their life against us where they went something like 8/8 from 3 in the crucial 2nd half minutes to put us away. But either way, the AAC suffered more embarrassing losses last night though this was not one of them. Once again, one of the major differences between the AAC and Big East is they have at least 4-5+ teams who are effective low to mid majors and play like them (can be beat routinely by other mid and low majors) which is why even games against schools like Elon are toss-ups. In the Big East, the only team we have in the ENTIRE conference that effectively plays like a mid major routinely is DePaul. They routinely lose to mid majors and they seemingly always lose against other power conference teams including the Big East. Those 4-5 teams in the AAC dilute what could be a pretty high quality conference without them. By the way, Memphis was supposed to always be competing for the AAC championship every year just like UConn and they have both been awful when compared to their recent past successes. They are not even doing their part in an already bad conference.

Think about a nice strong cup of espresso. That's the Big East. Now mix the espresso with a cup of water. That's the AAC.
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