The AAAAAAAC and Advanced Marketing (or Self-Kidding)

[RedStorm]

Right now there are 7 top conferences. Then a huge drop off to the A10.

Lol, no. Not even admitted aac team fans would buy this.

There are only 6 top conferences. Then a HUGE drop off to the AAC, the tallest among midgets.


And in order to ever rise to #6, the AAC would have to surpass the SEC. There is just too big a gap btw 6 and 7. Tulane, ECU, Houston, SMU... are never going to top Arkansas, Bama, Tenn, A&M....even without Kentucky the sec would be forever out of reach of the American. There is a good reason why every aac school wants to bolt asap.

[stever20]

Right now there are 7 top conferences. Then a huge drop off to the A10.

Lol, no. Not even admitted aac team fans would buy this.

There are only 6 top conferences. Then a HUGE drop off to the AAC, the tallest among midgets.


And in order to ever rise to #6, the AAC would have to surpass the SEC. There is just too big a gap btw 6 and 7. Tulane, ECU, Houston, SMU... are never going to top Arkansas, Bama, Tenn, A&M....even without Kentucky the sec would be forever out of reach of the American. There is a good reason why every aac school wants to bolt asap.

I think you are kidding your self if you think there's no chance the AAC could have a year where they would be in the top 6. I mean, just look last year.....

In Ken Pom- The Pac 12 was #6 only 4.23 pts ahead of AAC(minus Wichita of course). Wichita added in would make that gap only like about 2 points. 2 years ago, the gap between 6(SEC) and 7(AAC) was only 3.04 points(minus Wichita). That gap would be only like about 1 point when you include Wichita.

The huge gulf looks very possible that it'll be between 7 and 8 now. Only 2 teams outside the top 7 conferences to get an at large spot in Lunardi's most recent bracket- the WCC(St Mary's) and A10(with St Bonnie's as the 3rd team in). The A10 CHAMPION is only projected as a 11 seed this year. And of his 1st 8 teams out, only San Diego St is outside the top 7 conferences.

[stever20]

so looking at opponents for ECU and Tulane shows the impact of going to 12 teams....

These 4 teams only play ECU once- UCF, Wichita, Cincy, and Temple.
These 4 teams only play Tulane once- Cincy, UConn, UCF, and Wichita.
These 4 teams only play USF once- Cincy, Temple, UConn, and Wichita.

So these teams get only this many games vs sub 140 teams (in both KP and RPI)
Wichita- 3
Cincy- 3
UCF- 4(USF 2x, other 2 1x)
Temple- 4(Tulane 2x, other 2 1x)
UConn- 4(ECU 2x, other 2 1x)

pretty big impact IMO. Esp. if those 3 are the same bad teams this year.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever I love your words like "could" and "chance" and "possible" and then follow it up as if all are absolute certainties. Also, in any single year it is certainly possible for a second tier league to crack the top 6. I mean the A10 did it a couple years back. A single good year here and there doesn't support your contention. You need to look at 3, 4 and 5 year trends. That data builds the foundation of fact, not projections.

Over the past 4 years the AAC has been the 8th best conference behind the obvious top 6 and the A10. With the addition of Wich St there is a "chance" and a "possibility" that they "could" move up out of the 8th spot, but nothing is a certainty and they'd have to do it for several years, not one. So either we can continue to have this discussion based on fact or we can just throw that out the window and all make wild definitive statements based solely on our own subjectivity with a bevy of "coulds" and "possiblys."

[CrawfishBucket]

Stever I love your words like "could" and "chance" and "possible" and then follow it up as if all are absolute certainties. Also, in any single year it is certainly possible for a second tier league to crack the top 6. I mean the A10 did it a couple years back. A single good year here and there doesn't support your contention. You need to look at 3, 4 and 5 year trends. That data builds the foundation of fact, not projections.

Over the past 4 years the AAC has been the 8th best conference behind the obvious top 6 and the A10. With the addition of Wich St there is a "chance" and a "possibility" that they "could" move up out of the 8th spot, but nothing is a certainty and they'd have to do it for several years, not one. So either we can continue to have this discussion based on fact or we can just throw that out the window and all make wild definitive statements based solely on our own subjectivity with a bevy of "coulds" and "possiblys."

The AAC looks in good shape. Wichita brings them back to the way they looked with Louisville in year 1. Didn't they have something like 5 ranked teams that year?

Since that time they've hired very well. I think a lot of people are underplaying the brands they have. They don't lack for star power.

[stever20]

I don't think the A10 has been ahead of the AAC the last 4 years. Lets review
2014- sure A10 got 6 teams in, but AAC had 4 teams, and also had the national champion. AAC 7 in KP, A10 8.
2015- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. A10 7, AAC 9
2016- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 4. AAC 7, A10 8
2017- A10 got 3 teams in, AAC 2. AAC 7, A10 8

So in 3 of the 4 years, the AAC has been the stronger conference than the A10. And that's without Wichita.

avg kp rating for 4 years-- not even including Wichita in any fashion
AAC 6.86
A10 6.08

avg kp rating for 3 years- not even including Wichita in any fashion
AAC 5.83
A10 5.01

And now, the AAC adds Wichita.

[EMT]

Stever I love your words like "could" and "chance" and "possible" and then follow it up as if all are absolute certainties. Also, in any single year it is certainly possible for a second tier league to crack the top 6. I mean the A10 did it a couple years back. A single good year here and there doesn't support your contention. You need to look at 3, 4 and 5 year trends. That data builds the foundation of fact, not projections.

Over the past 4 years the AAC has been the 8th best conference behind the obvious top 6 and the A10. With the addition of Wich St there is a "chance" and a "possibility" that they "could" move up out of the 8th spot, but nothing is a certainty and they'd have to do it for several years, not one. So either we can continue to have this discussion based on fact or we can just throw that out the window and all make wild definitive statements based solely on our own subjectivity with a bevy of "coulds" and "possiblys."

The AAC looks in good shape. Wichita brings them back to the way they looked with Louisville in year 1. Didn't they have something like 5 ranked teams that year?

Since that time they've hired very well. I think a lot of people are underplaying the brands they have. They don't lack for star power.

This is a joke, right?

[CrawfishBucket]

Stever I love your words like "could" and "chance" and "possible" and then follow it up as if all are absolute certainties. Also, in any single year it is certainly possible for a second tier league to crack the top 6. I mean the A10 did it a couple years back. A single good year here and there doesn't support your contention. You need to look at 3, 4 and 5 year trends. That data builds the foundation of fact, not projections.

Over the past 4 years the AAC has been the 8th best conference behind the obvious top 6 and the A10. With the addition of Wich St there is a "chance" and a "possibility" that they "could" move up out of the 8th spot, but nothing is a certainty and they'd have to do it for several years, not one. So either we can continue to have this discussion based on fact or we can just throw that out the window and all make wild definitive statements based solely on our own subjectivity with a bevy of "coulds" and "possiblys."

The AAC looks in good shape. Wichita brings them back to the way they looked with Louisville in year 1. Didn't they have something like 5 ranked teams that year?

Since that time they've hired very well. I think a lot of people are underplaying the brands they have. They don't lack for star power.

This is a joke, right?

What was Louisville ranked to open that season? Wichita is Top 5. That was a huge addition for the American.
The idea that UConn, Memphis, Temple, Cincinnati, etc, are suddenly less prestigious is idiotic. How long ago did UConn win it all? Are you telling me that because they've struggled in that short window from then to now that they've lost prestige?
If you're being serious, what does that say about St Johns and Georgetown?
It's ok to be a homer but incorporate a little logic too.

[EMT]

What was Louisville ranked to open that season? Wichita is Top 5. That was a huge addition for the American.
The idea that UConn, Memphis, Temple, Cincinnati, etc, are suddenly less prestigious is idiotic. How long ago did UConn win it all? Are you telling me that because they've struggled in that short window from then to now that they've lost prestige?
If you're being serious, what does that say about St Johns and Georgetown?
It's ok to be a homer but incorporate a little logic too.

Ok, I'll play. Lost prestige?:

Temple - Yes. A 9th & 8th place finish since getting to the AAC. After 7 straight NCAA appearances in a row in the A10. Fran Dunphy may be at the end of the road of a great career.
Memphis - Yes. Three straight bad years and Tubby Smith is a dumpster fire. They traditionally regroup but could be down for a while without a coaching change. Tubby hasn't been over .500 in conference play since '07
Cincinnati - No. 7 straight NCAA appearances and in the AAC I'd expect Mick to get them there every year. They rarely lose games that they shouldn't.
UConn - Yes. By their standards. But the easiest of them all to bounce back. Ollie in the AAC 3rd, 5th, 6th, 5th. They all expected to be Gonzaga or Wichita in the AAC. The fact that there is a vocal minority on the boneyard that wants to cut ties with Ollie.

St John's & Georgetown being down has had zero impact on the prestige of the Big East.

Your statement was that the AAC was in good shape. It is not. Is the WCC in good shape because of Gonzaga, St. Mary's and BYU?

[billyjack]

Lol at Crawfish comparing Round of 32 Wichita with 2013 National Champion Louisville.