A Comparison Of 1984 Carlesimo vs 2017 Leitao

[billyjack]

So, during the season I was looking for positive tendencies in the Dave Leitao Version 2.0 at DePaul, and I started compiling the list of results shown below. DePaul under Leitao has struggled, though they're way better than they were under Purnell, with Leitao getting occasional nice wins (vs George Washington, Providence twice, and a couple of others).

In looking at struggling, weak programs, which are considered to have absolutely no chance of breaking out of their misery, I always think back to the 1980’s with Seton Hall, which set the Gold Standard in the Big East for an unlikely meteoric rise. From 1960 forward, the Pirates were either average, mediocre or awful. After Raftery for 10+ years, plus a year of his assistant Hoddy Mahon, Seton Hall hired local whiz kid PJ Carlesimo. PJ was coming off a horrid 4-22 season at Wagner.

After 2 particularly terrible seasons, and a couple of only slightly awful years, with little in the way of competitiveness in Big East play, and Pirates fans calling for Carlesimo’s head... somehow, things turned around in around 1987 with an NIT bid. In 88 the Hall qualified for the NCAA’s and picked up a first-round win. In 89 they were of course fantastic, with a blowout win vs Indiana in the Sweet Sixteen, followed by 2 crushings of UNLV and Duke, making the Rebels and Duke look like kindergarteners. It wasn’t just that they won, but it was the manner of victory. They had a 10 point lead on Michigan in the mid second half, but basically Glen Rice was unconscious and was the reason Michigan won the title (along with a ridiculous whistle).

Anyway, here are the early Carlesimo years at Seton Hall, followed by Leitao’s results at DePaul in 2016 and 2017. Just looking for a silver lining or parallels that could give us hope that DePaul can break loose. Just putting the numbers down for us to look at. DePaul to me is in better shape in 2017 than Seton Hall was in 1984.

Anyway:

1981 SETON HALL:
Bill Raftery.
11-16, 4-10.

1982 SETON HALL:
Hoddy Mahon.
11-16, 2-12.

P.J. Carlesimo hired from Wagner on Staten Island.
In 6 years at Wagner, they went:
1977: 3-21.
1978: 7-19.
1979: 21-7.
1980: 14-13.
1981: 16-11.
1982: 4-22.
So Carlesimo was coming off a 4-22 year at Wagner when Seton Hall hired him.

1983 SETON HALL:
5-23, 1-15.
Sucky in OOC. 15 point losses in Big East play.
L -18 at Fordham.
L -24 vs St Bonaventure.
L -1 at Manhattan.
L -9 vs Saint Peter’s.
L -13 n Northeastern.
W +7 n UIC.
L -10 n Villanova.
W +2 n St Bonaventure.
L -22 n Iowa.
L -17 vs St John’s.
L -17 at Boston College.
L -16 vs Providence.
L -11 n Syracuse.
L -16 n Villanova.
L -10 at Pitt.
L -23 at Georgetown.
L -31 at UConn.
W +2 vs Columbia.
L -25 at St John’s.
L -15 vs Boston College.
L -16 at Providence.
L -28 at Syracuse.
W +6 vs Pitt.
L -11 n Georgetown.
L -11 vs UConn.
L -19 at Notre Dame.
BET W +9 n Providence.
BET L -23 n Boston College.

1984 SETON HALL:
9-19, 2-14.
Mediocre in OOC. Sucky but not disastrous in Big East play, with some single digit losses.
W +5 n St Mary’s Gaels.
L -13 at Arizona State.
W +17 vs Manhattan.
L -11 at Saint Peter’s.
W +21 vs Monmouth.
L -7 vs Fordham.
L -25 n Rutgers.
L -5 at Syracuse.
W +2 vs Providence.
L -11 vs Georgetown.
L -28 vs Syracuse.
L -8 at UConn.
L -17 at Villanova.
L -12 n Pitt.
L -1 vs St John’s.
L -13 at Boston College.
W +8 at Columbia.
L -8 at Providence.
L -24 at Georgetown.
L -22 vs UConn.
L -7 n Villanova.
L -9 at Pitt.
L -2 at St John’s.
W +2 vs Boston College.
BET L -4 n Providence.

1985 SETON HALL:
10-18, 1-15.
Solid in OOC, with only losses by 3 and 4 points.
In the Big East, 6 losses by 5 points or fewer.
W +3 n Rice.
W +7 n Brown.
L -3 at Manhattan.
L -4 at Fordham.
W +26 vs Hartford.
W +1 vs Saint Peter’s.
W +5 n NC A&T.
W +9 n Tennessee State.
L -17 at Georgetown.
L -16 at St John’s.
L -20 n Georgetown.
L -3 at Boston College.
L -10 vs Syracuse.
L -12 n Villanova.
L -2 vs Providence.
L -5 at UConn.
L -2 vs Pitt.
L -11 vs St John’s.
L -12 at Pitt.
L -18 vs Boston College.
L -32 at Syracuse.
L -1 at Providence.
L -5 at Villanova.
W +5 vs UConn.
BET L -2 in OT n Providence.

1986 SETON HALL:
14-18, 3-13.
Solid in OOC. Still sucky in Big East play, but a couple of nice wins. Fans calling for PJ’s head.
L -4 vs Columbia.
W +1 at Princeton.
W +53 vs Manhattan.
W +7 vs Fordham.
L -1 at Saint Peter’s.
W +10 at Hawaii.
W +1 at Stanford.
L -7 n Washington State.
L -7 n Clemson.
L -6 vs Villanova.
L -21 at Syracuse.
L -15 vs Pitt.
L -16 vs St John’s.
L -10 vs Georgetown.
L -12 at UConn.
W +29 at Brown.
L -11 at Boston College.
W +12 at Pitt.
L -23 vs Syracuse.
L -27 at Georgetown.
L -1 vs Providence.
W +9 vs Boston College.
W +3 vs UConn.
L -13 at Villanova.
L -15 at Providence.
L -12 at St John’s.
BET W +10 n UConn.
BET L -19 at St John’s.

1987 SETON HALL:
15-14, 4-12.
Undefeated in OOC with solid wins. Good BE losses and sweep of Georgetown. Qualified for the NIT…!
W +13 at Columbia.
W +7 vs Saint Peter’s.
W +19 vs Princeton.
L -3 at St John’s.
W +28 vs Rutgers.
W +1 at Fordham.
W +18 vs Morgan State.
W +7 vs Army.
W +21 at Georgetown.
L -9 vs UConn.
L -8 at Syracuse.
W +14 vs Brown.
L -2 vs Pitt.
W +1 vs Georgetown.
L -4 vs Boston College.
L -4 at Villanova.
L -14 at Pitt.
W +4 at Boston College.
L -4 vs Syracuse.
W +3 vs Div-3 Utica College.
L -3 vs St John’s.
W +7 vs Loyola Baltimore.
L -4 at Providence.
W +1 vs Villanova.
L -13 n Providence.
L -2 at UConn.
BET L -8 n Pitt.
NIT L -9 at Niagara.

1988 SETON HALL:
22-13, 8-8.
Giant leap forward. OOC great, only loss to Florida by 2. In Big East, won 6 of last 8 after some close losses.
At 500 in BE play.
Made the NCAA’s, beat UTEP, lost to Arizona.
W +22 at George Mason.
W +32 at Middle Tenn State.
W +21 n New Mexico.
L -2 n Florida.
W +41 vs Wagner.
W +25 vs Lafayette.
W +8 vs Iona.
W +20 n Rutgers.
L -2 at Princeton.
W +17 vs Fordham.
W +18 vs Holy Cross.
W +26 n Pacific.
L -16 at Santa Clara.
W +13 vs UConn.
L -2 at Syracuse.
L -15 at Boston College.
L -1 at St John’s.
W +2 vs Providence.
L -6 at Villanova.
L -11 vs Syracuse.
L -3 vs St John’s.
W +2 at UConn.
W +14 at Providence.
L -6 vs Georgetown.
W +9 n Saint Peter’s.
W +6 Boston College.
W +17 Pitt.
W +26 Villanova.
W +4 at Pitt.
L -4 at Georgetown.
BET W +3 n Georgetown.
BET L -5 n Syracuse.
NCAA W +16 n UTEP.
NCAA L -29 n Arizona.

1989 SETON HALL:
31-7, 11-5.
Dominance in South Orange…!
Double-digit destruction throughout the season.
W +18 n Utah.
W +3 n Kentucky.
W +11 n Kansas.
W +39 vs Central Conn State.
W +32 vs Mount St Mary’s.
W +27 vs Saint Peter’s.
W +11 at St John’s.
W +26 vs Rutgers.
W +14 at Fordham.
W +18 vs Princeton.
W +17 n Virginia.
W +23 n DePaul.
W +8 vs Georgetown.
L -24 at Syracuse.
W +16 at Iona.
W +14 vs UConn.
W +17 vs Villanova.
L -3 vs Pitt.
W +24 vs Boston College.
L -8 at Georgetown.
W +23 at Boston College.
L -6 vs Syracuse.
W +6 at Villanova.
W +3 at UConn.
L -6 at Pitt.
W +3 vs St John’s.
W +4 vs Providence.
W +12 at Providence.
W +33 vs Div-3 Brooklyn.
BET W +8 n UConn.
BET L -3 n Syracuse.
NCAA W +9 n Missouri State.
NCAA W +16 n Evansville.
NCAA W +13 n Indiana.
NCAA W +23 n UNLV.
NCAA W +17 n Duke.
NCAA L -1 in OT n Michigan.


Dave Leitao last coached in 2009, going 10-18 at Virginia.
4 years at Virginia, won 15, 21, 17 and 10 games
Prior to that, at DePaul, he went 16-13, 22-10 and 20-11.
Way back, in 95 and 96, he went 18-11 and 4-24.

I’d like to think Leitao is already at the 1986 Seton Hall stage.

2016 DePAUL:
9-11, 3-15.
W +6 vs Western Michigan.
L -6 at Penn State.
L -15 n South Carolina.
L -16 n Florida State.
W +4 n Norfolk State.
W +27 at UIC.
W +24 vs Chicago State.
W +3 vs at Drake.
L -22 vs Ark Little Rock.
L -19 at Stanford.
L -8 in OT vs Northwestern.
W +21 vs George Washington.
L -12 vs Georgetown.
L -4 at Seton Hall.
L -5 vs Butler.
L -11 at Georgetown.
L -20 at Xavier.
L -11 vs Creighton.
W +1 vs Marquette.
L -14 at Butler.
L -21 vs Xavier.
W +7 vs Providence.
L -22 at Creighton.
L -27 vs Villanova.
L -15 at St John’s.
L -13 vs Marquette.
W +8 vs St John’s.
L -21 at Providence.
L -21 at Villanova.
L -14 vs Seton Hall.
BET L -17 n Georgetown.

2017 DePAUL:
9-23, 2-16.
W +6 vs Robert Morris.
L -7 vs Rutgers.
W +18 vs Milwaukee.
W +2 vs Missouri State.
W +2 vs Drake.
L -16 at Northwestern.
W +19 vs Lamar.
L -9 n Temple.
L -5 vs UIC.
W +48 vs Chicago State.
W +3 vs SE Missouri State.
L -14 n Wyoming.
L -11 n Missouri State.
L -3 at Villanova.
L -6 vs St John’s.
L -29 at Seton Hall.
W +1 vs Providence.
L -25 at Marquette.
L -10 at St John’s.
L -1 in OT vs Butler.
L -17 at Creighton.
L -3 vs Georgetown.
L -13 vs Marquette.
L -11 at Xavier.
L -35 vs Creighton.
L -13 vs Villanova.
L -16 at Butler.
W +2 at Georgetown.
L -3 vs Seton Hall.
L -9 at Providence.
L -14 vs Xavier.
BET L -9 n Xavier.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Leitao will not get 5 years to reach the postseason, especially with a brand new stadium opening next year. If DePaul continues its non-competitive trend next year, especially with a coach like Tom Crean being available, Leitao is very much on the hot seat next year.

You only get one chance of opening a new stadium and using it to reinvigorate the fan base. If they are really down again next year, they may not be able to recover from it.

[BEhomer]

I do like some of the under the radar type players he's brought in. and I think BGJr is addition by subtraction. I expect them to be much better next year. hope that starts with OOR schedule and not BE season.

[xusandy]

Guys like Purnell and Leitao are seasoned coaches whose "specialty" is turnaround -- creating decent teams out of the lesser players available to them. They evaluate talent well, recruit moderately well but almost never land a true stud, understand how to get the most out of the rosters they do have, and they handle kids well. Both of them have track records of being able to turn bad teams into average ones, but neither of them has been consistently able to get beyond that. Others that I view similarly are Brian Gregory, Herb Sendek, and Seth Greenberg. None of those guys will embarrass your program or REALLY piss off your fans, but none has or ever will get you to the promised land of being at/near the top of your league and regularly into the NCAA tourney. These coaches can last a long time in the game, and they become pretty well known nationally, but ultimately they're all just competent caretakers in the world of big-time college basketball coaching.

Eventually, the problem with competent caretakers is that they do just well enough to give the hard-core fans of their school HOPE, and so then they get canned because they just can't get beyond fielding "average" or "OK" teams. They get paid well for their services, but I have a lot of sympathy for Leitao and others like him; they toil for years and never quite make it into the upper echelon of their profession, despite doing/saying all the right things and being very competent at their jobs.

Thus, I expect that DePaul will can Leitao again, and withing the next couple of years, and almost no matter how well he does next year or the year after. With new facilities, membership in the Big East, a location in talent rich Chicago, and a renewed institutional commitment to being competitive, DePaul should be able to land a coach who can take them much further. Tom Crean is one example of a higher profile coach with a more successful track record -- exactly the kind of guy I suspect they'll hire to replace Leitao.