What's Up With Gonzaga?

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Re: What's up with Gonzaga?

Postby NJRedman » Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:54 pm

Bill Marsh wrote:
NJRedman wrote:
Bill Marsh wrote:
You're thinking like a fan of pro sports. DePaul and St John's do not bring the Chicago and NYC markets respectively. They represent their University communities, not their cities. If I turn on WFAN, St John's doesn't get more than a rare mention. Even less from Michael Kay and the rest at ESPN, which is never. These are pro markets, not college markets.

In Chicago, there is a better chance of Illinois or any number of Big Ten schools exciting college fans in that
market than a moribund DePaul program. Same with Notre Dame in either Chicago or NY.

Casual fans of college basketball aren't restricted to the local schools from big conferences if they want to follow college sports. TV offers plenty of options. If they want to go to a college game, they have no incentive to go to a game featuring a losing DePaul or St John's team. Alums of NY schools like Iona, Manhattan, Columbia, Fordham, St Francis, LIU, and Hofstra aren't suddenly becoming fans of St John's and buying tickets out in Jamaica Estates. They'll go to a game at the Garden if it's a big game. But if they're going to attend a game to watch a team lose, they'll go see their own alma maters. A losing program brings very little when it's losing regardless of its market. The attendance figures for DePaul and .st John's reflect that.

Frankly Gonzaga, or Creighton, or Providence are more likely to bring their markets - albeit smaller markets - when they're losing because they are the only game in town. They do attract casual fans in those markets precisely because there are no pro teams and whenever they play, it's a big event. They are part of the culture of their local communities in a way that big city colleges are not.

As for recruiting, most Big East schools recruit nationally. With a TV contract, kids know that the folks at home will get to see them. Occasionally there is a kid who goes to a school because the conference plays in their home town and they'll get back there once or twice a year. It's not like the ACC. Doesn't get kids from NY and Chicago even though they don't have conference members in those cities. The recruiting benefits are exaggerated.


No, i'm not thinking like a sports fan. If you don't think TV markets matter and it's strictly about eyeballs then explain Rutgers invite to the B1G?


Different situation. The B1G was able to negotiate deals with local cable carriers in those states to carry the BTN. It's carriage fees they're after, which means they get paid whether anyone watches or not. It's not about ratings. In addition, there is an enormous number of Big Ten alums in both the NY/NJ area and the DC area. They weren't depending on casual fans tunin in.

Those teams means BE games in general are carried in those markets. St. John's getting 10% of NYC TV market to follow them is more valuable than 90% of the Spokane or Omaha market.


Do you have any evidence that St John's is getting 10% of the NYC TV market? I haven't seen that. Fox ratings for the Big East have been low and have not risen to the levels that Fox publicly projected. That's a problem for the Big East long term because if the rating don't improve, the big contract won't be there in 7-8 years. What's the solution?

I get it, you want to see the really good team in the conference. You think we should add the really good team because they are really good. You see small desperate schools traveling far so why can't we?

I'll ask you a question. If this makes so much sense why didn't the presidents add them 4 years ago?


Following that line of reasoning, the conference will never expand with anyone because if it was going to happen, it would already have happened.

The question that I posed at the beginning of this thread is, what will be the response of the Big East if the AAC seeks to add Gonzaga and BCU in addition to Wichita State. When the AAC was formed, it was a terrible basketball conference beyond the top 2-4 programs. Bit since then SMU and Houston have grown dramatically. With the proposed additions to an improving core, there is the potential for another power basketball conference to emerge. In the past, that situation has motivated some conferences to expand im order to remove the proposed targets for expansion from competitor conferences. Just wondering if anyone sees the BE doing the same or just sitting tight.

VCU made a FF run and weren't added. Wichita made a FF run and weren't added. Dayton made an EE run and weren't added. Gonzaga is no different. If it made dollars it would make sense.


Gonzaga is different. It's a natural institutional fit for the Big East. The other 2 aren't. It's one road trip a year for 4-5 teams for any school, trips which can be piggy backed on a trip to Omaha. If that's a deal killer, fine by me. I prefer the 10 team format anyway. I just thought it made for interesting conversation now that the BE season is over and Fonzaga is in the headlines.


I didn't say St. John's gets 10% of the NYC TV market. I was pointing out how a smaller % of a bigger TV market is more valuable than a large % of a smaller market.

Spokane isn't a piggy back off of an Omaha trip. Don't act like they are close to each other. For an east coast team thats a trip to Omaha then ANOTHER trip to Omaha to reach Spokane.

Who said we will never expand? We don't have to expand right now to prove we will ever expand in the future. Who cares what the AAC does? All three of those schools would leave the AAC for the BE.

You do know that no matter what you point out the school presidents aren't on here to read them and that they have all of this evidence in front of them and they still aren't adding the Zags. Argue all you want and dismiss the cons we put forth and act like your pro's are so overwhelming that those who don't see them must be blind. I get it, you want the really good team to be added, but the people who make the decisions disagree with your assessment.
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Re: What's up with Gonzaga?

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Re: What's Up With Gonzaga?

Postby dakphonics » Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:43 pm

Outside of this board nobody is talking about Gonzaga joining the Big East. Not even Gonzaga. On the other hand UCONN has been rumored inside and outside. Prob best to concentrate chatter where it is warranted. No offense though because I love Gonzaga. Perfect fit but for geography in many ways. And Btw people that think Zags are some flash in the pan are nuts. Mark Few has been courted by countless power connference schools including Oregon with all the Nike money and parents live 10 minutes from campus. The dude has no interest in Anything but Gonzaga. He ain't going anywhere until he retires 10-20 years from now because he loves fly fishing Easter WA and ID too much.

Anybody that lives in Omaha knows it takes longer to fly to San Francisco than it does to Charlotte. Eastern Washington is not in the realm of our conference. If Omaha is far flung from NYC, Washington State is even more so from Omaha on a different level. Two time zones, mounitains, and a wilderness away. The Big East is geographically similar to the big 10 right now. They have Maryland to Rutgers in the East to Nebraska (cornhuskers) in the West. It's like Georgetown and Seton in the East to Creighton in the West. Not a lot different except BE goes further East and north with providence, and B10 has MN, MI and IA school(s) Talk about being far flung if the Big East wants to be as geographically desperate as the AAC by all means add a team as isolated from the rest as Gonzaga.

As much as Gonzaga would be a great brand for the Big East and I would be happy about it, it's hard to imagine it happening. I think the Big East is likely to add maybe 1 team if any, and if they do, they'd be more likely to add UCONN than anyone else. And that'd be the the end of it.
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Re: What's Up With Gonzaga?

Postby Bill Marsh » Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:06 am

dakphonics wrote:Outside of this board nobody is talking about Gonzaga joining the Big East. Not even Gonzaga. On the other hand UCONN has been rumored inside and outside. Prob best to concentrate chatter where it is warranted. No offense though because I love Gonzaga. Perfect fit but for geography in many ways. And Btw people that think Zags are some flash in the pan are nuts. Mark Few has been courted by countless power connference schools including Oregon with all the Nike money and parents live 10 minutes from campus. The dude has no interest in Anything but Gonzaga. He ain't going anywhere until he retires 10-20 years from now because he loves fly fishing Easter WA and ID too much.

Anybody that lives in Omaha knows it takes longer to fly to San Francisco than it does to Charlotte. Eastern Washington is not in the realm of our conference. If Omaha is far flung from NYC, Washington State is even more so from Omaha on a different level. Two time zones, mounitains, and a wilderness away. The Big East is geographically similar to the big 10 right now. They have Maryland to Rutgers in the East to Nebraska (cornhuskers) in the West. It's like Georgetown and Seton in the East to Creighton in the West. Not a lot different except BE goes further East and north with providence, and B10 has MN, MI and IA school(s) Talk about being far flung if the Big East wants to be as geographically desperate as the AAC by all means add a team as isolated from the rest as Gonzaga.

As much as Gonzaga would be a great brand for the Big East and I would be happy about it, it's hard to imagine it happening. I think the Big East is likely to add maybe 1 team if any, and if they do, they'd be more likely to add UCONN than anyone else. And that'd be the the end of it.


The issue I proposed in the OP was not whether Gonzaga was coming to the Big East. It was whether they might have conversations with the AAC. My speculation was based on comments by Mark Few in the 2 articles which I linked. There have certainly been many reports in the media that the AAC will expand to improve its basketball profile. Wichita State is now considered a lock after earlier speculation that the AAC might add VCU and Dayton as well. I'm suggesting that things could get interesting if you replace Dayton with Gonzaga.

There has been a lot of talk about UConn to the Big East but it's nonsense. I wouldn't say never, but not in the next 7-8 years. It's no different than last year when there was a lot of talk about Gonzaga to the Big East following William Rhoden's speculative article in The NY Times. Mark Few went on the record last year that he would like to bring the Zags to the Big East. He's been in the record for years as wanting out of the WCC. The fact that there's a lot of talk this year about UConn doesn't mean that the speculation is any more solid than it was for Gonzaga last year. Realignment talk just won't go away.

The fact that no one's talking about Gonzaga to the Big East doesn't mean it's not worthy of discussion along with other possible moves. Many realignment moves occurred with no forewarning. No one was talking about either Rutgers or Maryland to the Big Ten when that occurred. The additions of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC happened literally overnight. TCU was contracted to join the Big East and had paid their non-refundable entry fee when they were grabbed by the Big 12.

The issue I raised in this thread was NOT whether the Big East wants to expand with Gonzaga, but what the conference would do - if anything - if the AAC improves its profile with the addition of 3 programs which have all been to the Final Four within the past 7 years. Add them to UConn and Memphis and you would have a conference with 5 programs which have been to the Final Four within the past decade. The Big East has 2. Keep Gonzaga in the WCC and they're not a threat to anyone. But add them to the mix in the AAC and a lot of good matchups emerge that can be marketed for TV.

This is a competitive business. It's clear that ACC expansion was as much about destroying the Big East as a competitor as it was about improving the ACC itself. The Big East might do nothing in response to the AAC's addition of one or more basketball programs, but it would be irresponsible of them not to re-evaluate their position and consider their options.

And where is Fox in all this? It was publicly reported back in 2013 that they were pushing Gonzaga for membership. Since then, Gonzaga has been to two Elite 8's and a Championship game. They've only become more attractive. Does Fox have any other ideas? How do they feel about the AAC becoming a stronger competitor for ratings?
Last edited by Bill Marsh on Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: What's up with Gonzaga?

Postby kayako » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:54 pm

GoldenWarrior11 wrote:The compromise for the Gonzaga conundrum is a scheduling alliance, instead of a full-fledged membership. Have Big East teams play them a over a 3-5 year period. It improves their RPI and SOS, while increasing our visibility and getting a like-minded institution to play a lot against. It also protects against Olympic sports traveling 2,000 miles.


Doesn't make a lot of sense, and for both sides. If your school wants to play Gonzaga, your AD should call their AD and work something out. I'm sure Gonzaga would be thrilled to be locked in to multiple OC games vs. Big East teams every season. This isn't Gonzaga of a decade ago that wanted to play anyone, anywhere. They don't need the Big East to game the RPI, and the Big East has no trouble getting quality opponents. Playing them because they're catholic is nonsense.
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Re: What's Up With Gonzaga?

Postby EMT » Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:07 pm

Bill Marsh,

Do you think Few wants out of the WCC or is he trying to scare the other non-St. Mary's programs into stepping it up?

I say this because other than the BE, they can't really move that far up conference wise from where the WCC is right now. No P5 can take them and you could argue that even with WSU and Gonzaga joining the AAC, they won't move into the Top 6. Is solidly 7th best conference worth the additional travel?
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Re: What's Up With Gonzaga?

Postby Bill Marsh » Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:29 pm

EMT wrote:Bill Marsh,

Do you think Few wants out of the WCC or is he trying to scare the other non-St. Mary's programs into stepping it up?


I think he wants out of the conference. How would you feel if you're bringing in the lion's share of the tournament credits, only to have the money redistributed to everyone else? The rest of the conference is bringing in very little.

I say this because other than the BE, they can't really move that far up conference wise from where the WCC is right now. No P5 can take them and you could argue that even with WSU and Gonzaga joining the AAC, they won't move into the Top 6.


You're right. Even with WSU, GU, and VCU, they're still #7. But they'd be a lot closer. Just using this year's conference RPI as an example:

#6 PAC-12 - 0.5528
New AAC -- 0.5407
#7 AAC ---- 0.5271
#9 WCC --- 0.5255

But I don't think conference RPI tells the whole story. The AAC is dragged down primarily by the bottom of the conference:

213. East Carolina
296. Tulane
316. South Florida

Everyone else in the conference is ranked between 12-137. With the 3 new additions, there would be 7 in the top 100:

8. Gonzaga
12. Cincinnati
13. SMU
22. VCU
32. Wichita State
54. Houston
68. Central Florida

There are only 4 in the WCC in the top 100, including Gonzaga. A move to an expanded AAC would mean an entirely different schedule. Assuming that the AAC would schedule with an eye on premium matchups for TV, the actual boost to Gonzaga'ssxhedule could be a lot more than what might be suggested by conference RPI.

The WCC, for example has 4 teams who were ranked between 200-300 in RPI this year. Gonzaga played them all home & home. Suppose they played only one of the bottom 3 in the AAC twice? Or none of the 3 twice? Same thing at the other end. Maximize premium matchups. In the WCC, St Mary's was the only other team in the top 50 this year. An expanded AAC would have 4 besides GU with a 5th just outside the top 50.

Is solidly 7th best conference worth the additional travel?


Only Gonzaga can answer that question. But they already travel a long way in a WCC that has 4 teams in So Cal. They already travel OOC to boost their RPI in order to compensate for their weak conference RPI. Maybe they wouldn't have to do so much of that.

The other side of the equation needed to answer that question is revenue. In a multi-bid conference, there would likely be an increase in tournament revenue to be distributed. Second, attractive national contests could be moved to the civic arena in Spokane, which holds about 11,000 (?). That would mean increased ticket sales. Third, the AAC TV contract is up for renegotiation soon. I think they'd hope for increased revenue there as well.
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Re: What's Up With Gonzaga?

Postby CrawfishBucket » Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:48 pm

Interesting when you look at the way too early Top 25 from ESPN. The Big East (3), WCC (2), and American(3) seem to be doing ok. If Gonzaga (10) moved, it would shift the balance.

1. KENTUCKY
2. NORTH CAROLINA
3. LOUISVILLE
4. VILLANOVA - BIG EAST
5. FLORIDA
6. WICHITA STATE - AMERICAN
7. DUKE
8. WEST VIRGINIA
9. KANSAS
10. GONZAGA - WCC
11. ARIZONA
12. MICHIGAN STATE
13. OREGON
14. VIRGINIA
15. ST MARYS - WCC
16. XAVIER - BIG EAST
17. MINNESOTA
18. NOTRE DAME
19. BUTLER - BIG EAST
20. SMU - AMERICAN
21. MIAMI
22. MICHIGAN
23. UCLA
24. CINCINNATI - AMERICAN
25. BAYLOR
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Re: What's Up With Gonzaga?

Postby gtmoBlue » Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:29 pm

Tulsa World -
Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2014 12:00 am
By KELLY HINES World Sports Writer | 0 comments
Last year, the American Athletic Conference inked a seven-year, $126 million TV contract with ESPN for rights to telecast the league’s games, primarily football and basketball. The deal runs through the 2019-20 season.


3 more seasons left on the AAC TV deal.

As for polls the BE has normally 4 or 5 teams in the major polls during the season, so adding another is not that big of a deal.
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"Top tier teams rarely have true "down" years and find a way to stay relevant every year." - Adoraz

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Re: What's Up With Gonzaga?

Postby EMT » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:52 am

gtmoBlue wrote:
Tulsa World -
Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2014 12:00 am
By KELLY HINES World Sports Writer | 0 comments
Last year, the American Athletic Conference inked a seven-year, $126 million TV contract with ESPN for rights to telecast the league’s games, primarily football and basketball. The deal runs through the 2019-20 season.


3 more seasons left on the AAC TV deal.

As for polls the BE has normally 4 or 5 teams in the major polls during the season, so adding another is not that big of a deal.


That's $18 million a year with 12 football playing members. I'd love to understand the breakout of football and basketball. It has to be overwhelmingly football.
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Re: What's Up With Gonzaga?

Postby billyjack » Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:54 pm

As the days pass here, I'm becoming even more certain that we should add Gonzaga as soon as possible. I was on the fence until their run to the National Final this season.

To me, it isn't about staying ahead of the A-10, etc. It's about getting better and locking ourselves into the Top 2 conferences, and jumping to #1. Go from 7 bids in 2017, to adding the national finalist the following year.

The Zags are committed to their basketball program. The Big East has always been about building up programs. DePaul is the exception, but it's because the AD is an idiot. Gonzaga can play 2 or 3 games each year in Seattle (too bad the Kingdome wasn't still standing, site of the Hoyas' title game win), continue to hold their spot as the king of the Pacific Northwest.

The national final got huge ratings. Gonzaga is a great story and a household name. I'd love to have them in the Big East. 11 teams, round robin maintained.
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