Wed. Marquette @ Xavier

[stever20]

The problem for Xavier is if they lose tonight, they will be relegated to playing believe it or not on Wednesday night next week. So that means a worthless win vs DePaul, followed by Butler.

Tonight will show a lot about Xavier. A win, and they are in good shape. A loss, and a loss in particular if they don't show up, and folks should get really worried about them.

[kayako]

Can't decide who needs this win more.

Probably Marquette. I'm not convinced they can make the field without 20 wins. Xavier should take care of business at DePaul, and I like their chances in the Big East Tournament if they do happen to not get a bye.

I am going with Xavier. It probably locks up their bid, and Marquette has Villanova & @Creighton wins in their pocket.

[Hall2012]

Exactly. Based on their body of work, Xavier deserves to be in regardless of the losses. But if the committee takes the attitude - as some have in the past - that their job is to take the 36 best teams right now so that they can have the most competitive tournament with the strongest teams, then Xavier better win some games to prove that they are still viable or they're in trouble. It's not the old "last 10 games" thing, the Sumner loss as you pointed out. The issue is whether the committee will decide - based on the record - that they're simply not the same team without him. There's no doubt that their losing streak down the stretch will hurt their seeding if they do get selected. There's simply no way to know if the committee will extend that analysis to their very selection itself. Of course X can make all of that moot by running off a mini win streak over the next 10 days.

I'm not disagreeing with you. A win would go a long way for X too. My point was just that I like Xavier's odds of losing this game and still getting in the tournament better than I like Marquette's odds of losing this game and still getting in the tournament.

Obviously, both would be much more comfortable with a win. Should be a great game!

[stever20]

Can't decide who needs this win more.

Probably Marquette. I'm not convinced they can make the field without 20 wins. Xavier should take care of business at DePaul, and I like their chances in the Big East Tournament if they do happen to not get a bye.

I am going with Xavier. It probably locks up their bid, and Marquette has Villanova & @Creighton wins in their pocket.

Marquette needs 1 more regular season win though to really have any shot. They lose tonight and Saturday to Creighton, and they're entering the BET as the 7 seed. More importantly, they enter the BET with a RPI of near 80. They would likely have to upset Butler in the 2nd round to have any shot, even with those wins over Nova and Creighton(which was after the injury).

[Bill Marsh]

Exactly. Based on their body of work, Xavier deserves to be in regardless of the losses. But if the committee takes the attitude - as some have in the past - that their job is to take the 36 best teams right now so that they can have the most competitive tournament with the strongest teams, then Xavier better win some games to prove that they are still viable or they're in trouble. It's not the old "last 10 games" thing, the Sumner loss as you pointed out. The issue is whether the committee will decide - based on the record - that they're simply not the same team without him. There's no doubt that their losing streak down the stretch will hurt their seeding if they do get selected. There's simply no way to know if the committee will extend that analysis to their very selection itself. Of course X can make all of that moot by running off a mini win streak over the next 10 days.

I'm not disagreeing with you. A win would go a long way for X too. My point was just that I like Xavier's odds of losing this game and still getting in the tournament better than I like Marquette's odds of losing this game and still getting in the tournament.

Obviously, both would be much more comfortable with a win. Should be a great game!

Not disagreeing with you either. I thought you made great points. I was just elaborating - which is a fault of mine.

I'll be watching this one with rapt attention.

[JohnW22]

I think Xavier still needs to prove themselves to the committee without Sumner

[Hall2012]

The problem for Xavier is if they lose tonight, they will be relegated to playing believe it or not on Wednesday night next week. So that means a worthless win vs DePaul, followed by Butler.

Tonight will show a lot about Xavier. A win, and they are in good shape. A loss, and a loss in particular if they don't show up, and folks should get really worried about them.

Yes, a loss likely drops Xavier to the 7 seed, meaning back to back games vs DePaul (reg season finale then BET opener). I'm not worried about their chances of getting in unless they lose one of those games though. Xavier isn't in a position where it needs to build its resume as much as it's in a position where it needs to not destroy it. With the recent losing streak, a couple of W's could go a long way regardless of who they come against.

[Bill Marsh]

The problem for Xavier is if they lose tonight, they will be relegated to playing believe it or not on Wednesday night next week. So that means a worthless win vs DePaul, followed by Butler.

Tonight will show a lot about Xavier. A win, and they are in good shape. A loss, and a loss in particular if they don't show up, and folks should get really worried about them.

Yes, a loss likely drops Xavier to the 7 seed, meaning back to back games vs DePaul (reg season finale then BET opener). I'm not worried about their chances of getting in unless they lose one of those games though. Xavier isn't in a position where it needs to build its resume as much as it's in a position where it needs to not destroy it. With the recent losing streak, a couple of W's could go a long way regardless of who they come against.

Yes. Excellent points.

Back to back games against DePaul sets up the possibility of a devastating loss. It's hard to beat any team twice in the same week.

[Hall2012]

I think Xavier still needs to prove themselves to the committee without Sumner

Xavier has solid wins over both Creighton and Seton Hall without Sumner. Remember (I'm sure the committee will) that they were also without Bluiett for the Marquette and Providence losses. He also missed part of the Villanova game and wasn't 100% against Seton Hall, though he played. So you could argue 4 games of the 5 game losing streak were affected by Bluiett.

So they're 3-3 in games with Bluiett but not Sumner, including 2 top 50 RPI wins and all 3 losses also coming to the RPI top 50 (2 top 10).

[billyjack]

I think Xavier still needs to prove themselves to the committee without Sumner

Xavier has solid wins over both Creighton and Seton Hall without Sumner. Remember (I'm sure the committee will) that they were also without Bluiett for the Marquette and Providence losses. He also missed part of the Villanova game and wasn't 100% against Seton Hall, though he played. So you could argue 4 games of the 5 game losing streak were affected by Bluiett.

So they're 3-3 in games with Bluiett but not Sumner, including 2 top 50 RPI wins and all 3 losses also coming to the RPI top 50 (2 top 10).

I totally agree with your thoughts on Bluiett.

Sumner got hurt at St John's on Jan 29th.

The following games for XU:
- won vs Seton Hall on Feb 1st.
- won at Creighton on Feb 4th.
- won vs DePaul on Feb 8th.

then Blueitt got hurt:
- lost vs Villanova on Feb 11th.
- lost at Providence on Feb 15th (just my opinion, XU would've had 10+ lead at half w Bluiett).
- lost at Marquette on Feb 18th.
- lost at Seton Hall on Feb 22nd (not 100% like you said).

Bluiett now at pretty much normal health:
- lost vs Butler on Feb 26th (XU clicking, one-possession game under 4 minutes vs Top 15 team).