How many Big East teams will make the NCAA tourney?

[herodotus]

The five bubble teams are 5-22 against the four powerhouse teams. They have zero wins against Villanova, and Xavier, and were fortunate to get two wins over Creighton immediately after Watson's injury. In order for one or two of these teams to make it, they will either have to step up, and win a game or two against the top 4, or, separate themselves by dominating the remaining games against the other bubble teams. If they continue to knock each other off, and don't get any upset vs the top 4, this may end up a four bid league, although all four would then have good seeds. This of course brings up the question of whether it's better to have the top 4 wipe out the bubble teams, knocking them out, but assuring that none of the top 4 ends up lower than a 6 seed, which would give them all a fair chance to reach the Sweet 16; or is it better to get 6 teams in, even though this might result in a couple of the top 4 taking losses that would knock their seed down to where they would have a difficult time escaping the first weekend. There are no guarantees of course, but the four team scenario gives you a decent chance to place all four in the Sweet 16, while the 6 team model makes that more difficult, and depending on the damage the extra two teams did to the top 4 while earning their bids, might result in a scenario where only two, or maybe only Villanova, advances to the Sweet 16.

Totally agree with the premise of this post, just wondering how many points Marquette and Georgetown needed to win by in those two games in order for them not to be considered lucky. Trailing by 19 on their home court and 20+ in DC, those really got away from Creighton.

It''s kind of tricky figuring out the best outcome. There's no doubt it would be great to have 6 teams get in. Those last teams might even pull an upset, which would really make the league look good. Then again, if they get in, but cause the 3rd and 4th teams to end up around the 7-8 line, you risk having the networks post that conference record graphic after the first weekend, and seeing something like 3-5 next to the Big East. If the bubble teams don't get wins vs the top 4, and don't make the field, you might see all four teams with seeds of 6 or better. This would give the league a decent chance to put 3, or maybe even all 4 teams in the Sweet 16, which would be amazing. Again, of course there's no guarantee, as all games after the opener tend to be tough, unless a top team gets knocked out in the opening round. We could have 4 teams, and still see 3 go home the first weekend. All we can really do is watch it play out, and hope for a good performance in the tournament by whichever teams get there.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

The five bubble teams are 5-22 against the four powerhouse teams.

You appear to be including St. John's as a bubble team, which is overly optimistic.

RPI Forecast - St. John's - through games of Saturday Feb. 11th.

Current Record: 12-14
Expected Record: 13-18
Current Conf. Record: 6-7
Expected Conf. Record: 7-11
OOC Record: 6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+ teams: 7-2
Current RPI: 120

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record - Expected RPI - Probability
17-14 - 76.4 - 0.05%
16-15 - 89.1 - 1.52%
15-16 - 103.1 - 11.35%
14-17 - 117.5 - 32.49%
13-18 - 133.4 - 39.05%
12-19 - 151.4 - 15.53%

[herodotus]

The five bubble teams are 5-22 against the four powerhouse teams.

You appear to be including St. John's as a bubble team, which is overly optimistic.

RPI Forecast - St. John's - through games of Saturday Feb. 11th.

Current Record: 12-14
Expected Record: 13-18
Current Conf. Record: 6-7
Expected Conf. Record: 7-11
OOC Record: 6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+ teams: 7-2
Current RPI: 120

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record - Expected RPI - Probability
17-14 - 76.4 - 0.05%
16-15 - 89.1 - 1.52%
15-16 - 103.1 - 11.35%
14-17 - 117.5 - 32.49%
13-18 - 133.4 - 39.05%
12-19 - 151.4 - 15.53%

Yeah, they pretty much have no chance of getting a bid, but I included them in that group because they're playing well, and unlike DePaul, they are capable of beating the better teams, which could knock a team off of the bubble, or damage the seed of one of the four locks.
Xavier is heading into a very tough 3 game stretch of road games that could see them solidify a very good seed, or see them drop to a point where they would be facing a Louisville level team in the second game, and this is assuming they could get past a 50/50 type opener. If they sweep these 3 games, they could be single handedly limiting the league to 4 bids, as these are home games that the bubble teams need badly.

[stever20]

yeah if Xavier sweeps those 3 road games(plus then beats Marquette at home) things get really dicey.

Marquette 15-12 and 6-9 with 3 other games left(SJ, @ PC, Creighton)
Seton Hall 15-10 and 5-8 with 5 other games left(Creighton, Nova, @ DePaul, Georgetown, @ Butler)
Providence 15-12 and 5-9 with 4 other games left(@ Creighton, Marquette, DePaul, @ St John's)

frankly looking at it, Creighton is an even bigger team as they have not only those 3 teams left(with 2 of the 3 on the road), but also Georgetown. And Creighton is really in the same boat as Xavier in what you were saying.

[kayako]

The five bubble teams are 5-22 against the four powerhouse teams. They have zero wins against Villanova, and Xavier, and were fortunate to get two wins over Creighton immediately after Watson's injury. In order for one or two of these teams to make it, they will either have to step up, and win a game or two against the top 4, or, separate themselves by dominating the remaining games against the other bubble teams. If they continue to knock each other off, and don't get any upset vs the top 4, this may end up a four bid league, although all four would then have good seeds. This of course brings up the question of whether it's better to have the top 4 wipe out the bubble teams, knocking them out, but assuring that none of the top 4 ends up lower than a 6 seed, which would give them all a fair chance to reach the Sweet 16; or is it better to get 6 teams in, even though this might result in a couple of the top 4 taking losses that would knock their seed down to where they would have a difficult time escaping the first weekend. There are no guarantees of course, but the four team scenario gives you a decent chance to place all four in the Sweet 16, while the 6 team model makes that more difficult, and depending on the damage the extra two teams did to the top 4 while earning their bids, might result in a scenario where only two, or maybe only Villanova, advances to the Sweet 16.

Marquette beat Villanova.

I just made a similar post in another thread, but looking at the committee's top 16, St. Mary's may have to win their conference tournament to receive a bid. Mid-major might be dead this season.

St Mary's is about as safe as you can be. I think you are really crazy if you think there's any chance at all whatsoever a team that would have a 20ish RPI and is in the top 20 in KP would be out. Lets be realistic about it.

Again, @Dayton would be their one good win in the entire season, and they have a bad loss to counter that. There's at least some precedence of top 30 RPI team getting snubbed in St. Bonnies last season. I think SMU got snubbed with a better resume as well. Looking at the committee's top 16, it seems like SOS is a big factor here. I wouldn't be so confident as a Gaels fan.

[kayako]

Lunardi's latest bracket:

Nova 1
Buter 5
Creighton 5
Xavier 7
Marquette 11 (play-in game)
Seton Hall 12 (play-in game)
Georgetown is the 8th team out

Things are getting dicey.

[stever20]

St Mary's SOS is 80 with a OOC SOS of 83. #20 in the RPI and #19 in Ken Pom. Also should finish 27-3 and then 28-4 with the WCC tourney.
St Bonnie's last year SOS was 81 with a OOC SOS of 152. #30 in the RPI and #79 in Ken Pom. They were 22-8

Also, St Mary's has NO bad losses. UTA that you say is a bad loss is 16-6 and #43 in the RPI right now. The other 2 vs Gonzaga. So a better OOC SOS which is big, and also a record that will be 5 games better than what St Bonnie's had. The resumes aren't remotely close at all whatsoever.

[stever20]

so looking right now, there are 17 teams in the P6 that have both 20 wins and a top 30 RPI. Pretty close to calling all of these locks....
ACC- 4 UNC, FSU, Louisville, Duke
B12- 3 Kan, Bay, WV
BE- 2 Nova, Cre
B10- 3 Wis, Md, Pur
P12- 3 Az, Ore, UCLA
SEC- 2 Kent, Fla

then these are ones that are either in top 30 RPI but not 20 wins yet, or 20 wins but not quite in top 30 RPI, or close in both-
ACC- 2 Virginia 18 wins 14 RPI, ND 19 wins 26 RPI
BE-2 X 18 wins 13 RPI But 19 wins 12 RPI
B10- 2 NW 19 wins 33 RPI, Minn 18 wins 24 RPI
P12- 2 Cal 18 wins 35 RPI, USC 21 wins 32 RPI
SEC 2- SC 19 wins 21 RPI

So 17 teams are really close to locks, and then 9 others are so close as well. If you take all 26 of those as locks, you have 20 at larges gone. Leaves only 16 slots left. St Mary's, SMU/Cincy, Dayton/VCU would be 3 more that are really close to being in. Leaves really only 13 slots left.

[JohnW22]

yeah if Xavier sweeps those 3 road games(plus then beats Marquette at home) things get really dicey.

Marquette 15-12 and 6-9 with 3 other games left(SJ, @ PC, Creighton)
Seton Hall 15-10 and 5-8 with 5 other games left(Creighton, Nova, @ DePaul, Georgetown, @ Butler)
Providence 15-12 and 5-9 with 4 other games left(@ Creighton, Marquette, DePaul, @ St John's)

frankly looking at it, Creighton is an even bigger team as they have not only those 3 teams left(with 2 of the 3 on the road), but also Georgetown. And Creighton is really in the same boat as Xavier in what you were saying.

I find Xavier winning the next 3 close to impossible. I'd be thrilled if they did but I just don't see it especialy with Bluiett likely to miss 1-3 of those games.

[ChicagoX]

I think Xavier losing these next three games is more likely than them winning all three, especially if Blueitt misses a couple of them.