Re: The End of RPI?
Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:47 am
The Sagarin Ratings are already what they seemingly are trying to accomplish.
Here is it's explanation...
If they wanted to do this, they've had something that has done it for years.
I doubt much of anything will come out of the talks and RPI is still the 'official' metric but every Committee member continues to use whatever mix of analysis they deem right.
Here is it's explanation...
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
If they wanted to do this, they've had something that has done it for years.
I doubt much of anything will come out of the talks and RPI is still the 'official' metric but every Committee member continues to use whatever mix of analysis they deem right.