(2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:39 am

lets look at tonights game with Marquette and Seton Hall....

Seton Hall-
if they win, they have 3 conference wins. Still have 7 games left with top 4 teams. Would need 5-2 vs the rest to finish 9-9 and make tourney. With 3 home and 4 away. no lock there even- but a good shot
but Marquette would be 1-3. Still have 7 games left with top 4 teams. Would need 7-0 vs the rest to just get to 8-10- and would need 2 then 2 wins from top 4 teams.

now if Marquette wins-
Marquette would be 2-2. Still 7 games left with top 4 teams. Would need 7-0 vs rest and still would need a win vs top 4 teams.
Seton Hall would be 2-2. Still 7 games left with top 4 teams. Would need to go 6-1 vs the rest- with 3 home and 4 away.

I mean if Seton Hall wins tonight, yeah they move up quite a bit. But Marquette falls pretty much off the bubble. If Marquette wins, both are on the bubble, and neither would be what you would say is a likely NCAA birth.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby Hall2012 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:45 am

stever20 wrote:
Savannah Jay wrote:
I think a reasonably intelligent basketball fan, if asked what they thought today, would state that Seton Hall will be in the NCAA tournament. I think a reasonably intelligent basketball fan would state that they believe the Big East will get 5 bids, with the opportunity for the schools mentioned to make a case the next two months.

So nothing that was stated would get a reasonably intelligent basketball fan's panties in a wad...


Seton Hall is in the Bracket Matrix with all the bracketology only the 9th team in the tourney. And beyond that only Marquette with 7 of 53 and PC with 2 of 53(before last night)

The problem with your statement is the conference doesn't get x teams guaranteed. It's the teams involved.
Seton Hall still needs 7 more wins. They still have 7 games left with the top 4 schools. If they lose all 7 of those, They would need to go 7-2 vs the others to make the tourney. It's really about 50/50 them doing that right now.
Marquette still needs 9 more wins. They still have 7 games left with the top 4 schools. So right now, they have to win one of those to have any shot.

If the top 4 teams dominate everyone else, everyone else has an extremely thin margin for error. And it's made worse if DePaul and St John's win some games vs those other 4. It's an interesting scenario for sure.


If Seton Hall was in the AAC your argument would be that they're still in the mix for a 1 seed because they still have 7 opportunities left against ranked teams. If they win all 7 and don't choke against the bottom half...

That was obviously an exaggeration, but seriously, why do you look at those 7 games and think 7 losses? Seton Hall is perfectly capable of beating any of the top 4, including Nova who they've beaten in every season since realignment. If we were talking about an AAC team, your attitude really would be that those are 7 opportunities and if they can manage just 2 of them they're pretty much golden.
Seton Hall Pirates
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:48 am

Seton Hall though is projected right now to finish at 9-9. Means they take just 1 unexpected loss, and they are on the wrong side of the bubble.
compare that to St John's, who would need likely 4 upsets in the BET. Night and day difference between the 2.

I mean, right now, here is the KP projected final standings...
Nova 15-3
Butler 13-5
Creighton 12-6
Xavier 12-6
Seton Hall 9-9(would be in with that)
Marquette 9-9(would be out with that)
Georgetown 7-11
St John's 6-12
Providence 6-12
DePaul 3-15

Seton Hall is going to be flirting with the bubble all year long. To act like they are right now close to being a lock is a joke.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby Xavier4036 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:50 am

Hall2012 wrote:
If Seton Hall was in the AAC your argument would be that they're still in the mix for a 1 seed because they still have 7 opportunities left against ranked teams. If they win all 7 and don't choke against the bottom half...

That was obviously an exaggeration, but seriously, why do you look at those 7 games and think 7 losses? Seton Hall is perfectly capable of beating any of the top 4, including Nova who they've beaten in every season since realignment. If we were talking about an AAC team, your attitude really would be that those are 7 opportunities and if they can manage just 2 of them they're pretty much golden.


THIS. This is SO true and spot-on for Stever's perspective on the Big East and American. Nailed it.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:57 am

Hall2012 wrote:
If Seton Hall was in the AAC your argument would be that they're still in the mix for a 1 seed because they still have 7 opportunities left against ranked teams. If they win all 7 and don't choke against the bottom half...

That was obviously an exaggeration, but seriously, why do you look at those 7 games and think 7 losses? Seton Hall is perfectly capable of beating any of the top 4, including Nova who they've beaten in every season since realignment. If we were talking about an AAC team, your attitude really would be that those are 7 opportunities and if they can manage just 2 of them they're pretty much golden.


The big difference though is with the conferences that not only does Seton Hall have those 7 ranked games, which are going to be obviously tough- BUT the other 7 games are a whole lot tougher than the AAC has. I mean, Seton Hall right now are underdogs vs Marquette, Providence, and Georgetown. In the remaining non top 4 games, SH projected to win 4.69 of 8 games. So they would have 6 losses most likely before you take into account those other 7 games. Needing to win 3 of those games yikes. They're projected to win only 2.05 of those 7 games.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby JohnW22 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:27 am

Hall2012 wrote:If Seton Hall was in the AAC your argument would be that they're still in the mix for a 1 seed because they still have 7 opportunities left against ranked teams. If they win all 7 and don't choke against the bottom half...

That was obviously an exaggeration, but seriously, why do you look at those 7 games and think 7 losses? Seton Hall is perfectly capable of beating any of the top 4, including Nova who they've beaten in every season since realignment. If we were talking about an AAC team, your attitude really would be that those are 7 opportunities and if they can manage just 2 of them they're pretty much golden.


We have a winner
XU
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby Edrick » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:35 am

The Interweb already has one of these. http://csnbbs.com/thread-774558-page-8.html
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby GumbyDamnit! » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:49 am

Hall2012 wrote:
why do you look at those 7 games and think 7 losses? Seton Hall is perfectly capable of beating any of the top 4, including Nova who they've beaten in every season since realignment.


**DING** **DING** **DING** The ref has decided to stop the fight. We have our winner!

Anyone who is watching college and BE BB regularly, who just ASSUMES that SHU will lose all of those 7 games, is highly suspect. I really like the SHU team. They've got some really good players on that squad who make you earn everyting. They lost on the road @ Creighton. That's it. Would anyone bet against CU at home the rest of the year?

Also don't sleep on Marquette yet. They lost away at SHU and at Nova. They've got a lot of games left to make some noise. Let's just let them play some of the games before we start handing out bids, shall we?

Stever it is far too early for you to start your yearly campaign of how everything is going to break poorly for the BE and perfectly for everyone else. C'mon man!
Go Nova!
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby Savannah Jay » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:52 am

Stever20...

I believe your Big East jaded coke bottle glasses may be clouding your reading comprehension. At no point did I state that the Big East would be "slotted 5 spots" in the tourney or any such silliness. What I did say is that if you asked a reasonably intelligent basketball person, they would probably state that the Big East will get 5 teams in the tournament, Seton Hall being one of them. That is because, based on what we know today, there are 5 teams worthy. SH RPI, today, is 36 (better than everyone in the AAC except Cincy and SMU). That's tournament worthy and 81.8% of the AAC would have a stiffy right now if they had that RPI. What's more, a reasonably intelligent person might actually believe that SH will nab a few wins against teams with high RPIs (because there's a bunch of them in the Big East).

Let's make a bet...if SH makes the tournament, admins get to ban Stever for life. If SH does not make the tourney, I get banned for life (but make no guarantees that I won't come back as, say, Georgia Jay).
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby Edrick » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:56 am

That would have been a fine assertion. There's basically no way the Big East get less than five teams. Six is significantly more likely than four.

I think sometimes forget there are 68 teams in the Tournament. Teams like freaking Tulsa, last year, make it.
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