(2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby Bill Marsh » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:02 am

billyjack wrote:
Westbrook#36 wrote:I think we're beginning to see there's is a clear separation between the top half and bottom half of the BE. BTW, where are the posters who were serving up crow sandwiches a few weeks ago about where the Friars were predicted to finish during the preseason???


Yeah, i thought it was really bad karma a month ago when the "PC finishing 9th" debates were in high gear. Me, i specifically avoided those threads cuz the Friars were so young and young teams are inconsistent.

My points of defense for PC a couple of weeks ago were when someone on this site started making up numbers for Bullock, and dismissing solid wins vs UMass and whoever where i defended PC, and I also pointed to competitive losses at Ohio State and vs Virginia.

Tonight, in fairness to PC, Cartwright played great but had no lift due to his leg... plus he got chop blocked with about 8 minutes to go which banged his knee, made him basically immobile, and hurt his hand.

Lindsey didn't play at all with a bum wrist, which he had a cast on.

Drew Edwards (PG who made the inbounds to Bullock for winning shot vs USC in NCAA's) reinjured his knee in mid December and is supposedly out for the rest of the year.

So we had a 10 point lead the entire 2nd half. We stalled the ball once Cartwright's got dinged, to shorten the game, and DePaul made clutch plays. Our turnovers all game though were horrendous, just a ton of wasted possessions. Terrible unnecessary loss.

I know i'm making excuses, but those have been important factors recently.

Anyway, between this loss and the one at BC, these are 2 terrible demoralizing losses.


I feel your pain. Got in from a late Board meeting and switched on the game. Saw that PC was up by 11, relaxed, and fell asleep trying to watch the game. Woke up a couple of hours later to find the Friars had lost. Couldn't believe it. Thought a win was in the bag.

For all the reasons you mentioned, I thought this game would be a challenge for them, being on the road and not even knowing who would be able to play. I was surprised when I tuned into see that they were "comfortably" ahead. So, I'm not surprised that they lost but I am surprised that they blew a 9 point lead in the last 2 minutes and helped DePaul with all those fouls. Grrr! I :evil:
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:10 am

Edrick wrote:That would have been a fine assertion. There's basically no way the Big East get less than five teams. Six is significantly more likely than four.

I think sometimes forget there are 68 teams in the Tournament. Teams like freaking Tulsa, last year, make it.

Sorry but there is totally a way for Big East to get less than 5 teams..... If the top 4 teams split off and go like 45-3 vs the other 6 teams, not losing to more than 1 of the teams 2x, it's going to be really tough to get 5 in, let alone 6. And Marquette who looks like #6 is not a great candidate because they didn't do much OOC. They need 10 wins, and that's pretty close to impossible if they finish 6th.

As far as the point to what we know today that SH would be in, that's fine- but today isn't selection Sunday. Seton Hall has still got to get 7 more wins, with a brutal schedule. Yes, SH may get a win or 2 vs the top 4 teams. But they also might drop a few games against the other 6.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby Bill Marsh » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:48 am

stever20 wrote:
Edrick wrote:That would have been a fine assertion. There's basically no way the Big East get less than five teams. Six is significantly more likely than four.

I think sometimes forget there are 68 teams in the Tournament. Teams like freaking Tulsa, last year, make it.

Sorry but there is totally a way for Big East to get less than 5 teams..... If the top 4 teams split off and go like 45-3 vs the other 6 teams, not losing to more than 1 of the teams 2x, it's going to be really tough to get 5 in, let alone 6. And Marquette who looks like #6 is not a great candidate because they didn't do much OOC. They need 10 wins, and that's pretty close to impossible if they finish 6th.

As far as the point to what we know today that SH would be in, that's fine- but today isn't selection Sunday. Seton Hall has still got to get 7 more wins, with a brutal schedule. Yes, SH may get a win or 2 vs the top 4 teams. But they also might drop a few games against the other 6.


Yes, right now they project as bubble team. Could go either way, so now guarantees. With their experienced core group, I like their chances.

What do you think of their chances?
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Bill Marsh wrote:
stever20 wrote:
Edrick wrote:That would have been a fine assertion. There's basically no way the Big East get less than five teams. Six is significantly more likely than four.

I think sometimes forget there are 68 teams in the Tournament. Teams like freaking Tulsa, last year, make it.

Sorry but there is totally a way for Big East to get less than 5 teams..... If the top 4 teams split off and go like 45-3 vs the other 6 teams, not losing to more than 1 of the teams 2x, it's going to be really tough to get 5 in, let alone 6. And Marquette who looks like #6 is not a great candidate because they didn't do much OOC. They need 10 wins, and that's pretty close to impossible if they finish 6th.

As far as the point to what we know today that SH would be in, that's fine- but today isn't selection Sunday. Seton Hall has still got to get 7 more wins, with a brutal schedule. Yes, SH may get a win or 2 vs the top 4 teams. But they also might drop a few games against the other 6.


Yes, right now they project as bubble team. Could go either way, so now guarantees. With their experienced core group, I like their chances.

What do you think of their chances?

a whole lot hinges on this week. If they go 2-0, they should be set. But if they go 0-2, they are in serious trouble.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby sju88grad » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Edrick wrote:That would have been a fine assertion. There's basically no way the Big East get less than five teams. Six is significantly more likely than four.

I think sometimes forget there are 68 teams in the Tournament. Teams like freaking Tulsa, last year, make it.


oh god!....you used an AAC team as an example......AAC propaganda coming from stever in 3....2.....1.... ;) ;) ;)
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby kayako » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:15 pm

stever20 wrote:
Edrick wrote:That would have been a fine assertion. There's basically no way the Big East get less than five teams. Six is significantly more likely than four.

I think sometimes forget there are 68 teams in the Tournament. Teams like freaking Tulsa, last year, make it.

Sorry but there is totally a way for Big East to get less than 5 teams..... If the top 4 teams split off and go like 45-3 vs the other 6 teams, not losing to more than 1 of the teams 2x, it's going to be really tough to get 5 in, let alone 6. And Marquette who looks like #6 is not a great candidate because they didn't do much OOC. They need 10 wins, and that's pretty close to impossible if they finish 6th.

As far as the point to what we know today that SH would be in, that's fine- but today isn't selection Sunday. Seton Hall has still got to get 7 more wins, with a brutal schedule. Yes, SH may get a win or 2 vs the top 4 teams. But they also might drop a few games against the other 6.


If the top 4 goes 45-3 against the rest going forward (extremely unlikely but I'll play along), the standings would need to look something like this in order for only 4 teams to make the tournament:

1. Villanova 15-3 (4-2 vs top 4)
2. Creighton 14-4 (3-3 vs top 4)
3. Butler 14-4 (3-3 vs top 4)
4. Xavier 13-5 (2-4 vs top 4)

5. Marquette 9-9 (0-8 vs top 4)
6. Seton Hall 7-11 (0-8 vs top 4) 18-12 and apparently outside of the bubble heading into the BET
7. Georgetown 6-12 (1-7 vs top 4)
8. Providence 5-13 (1-7 vs top 4)
9. St. John's 4-14 (1-7 vs top 4)
10. Depaul 3-15 (1-7 vs top 4)

It makes sense for each team, but put it all together and this projection falls apart.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:31 pm

The Ken Pom projections if you take what they have projected absolutely- no %- show what I'm talking about...
1 Villanova 17-1
2 Butler 14-4
3 Creighton 14-4
4 Xavier 13-5
5 Marquette 9-9
6 Seton Hall 7-11 (would be 17-13 btw)
7 Georgetown 7-11
8 St John's 4-14
9 Providence 4-14
10 DePaul 1-17
this would have 2 losses by teams in top 4- Butler/St John's(already happened), Marquette(Xavier). So that would be 46-2. Right now, they are 7-1.

Marquette would be extremely bubble at that point. Seton Hall might be in the 7/10 game and then see 2nd seed in QF round.

So all I'm saying is to say that something is extremely unlikely when it's what is actually projected is comical. If top 4 teams dominate this year(which wouldn't be bad btw)- It's going to create precious little oxygen for the other 6 teams getting anywhere close to enough wins.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby XUFan09 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:34 pm

GumbyDamnit! wrote:
Hall2012 wrote:
why do you look at those 7 games and think 7 losses? Seton Hall is perfectly capable of beating any of the top 4, including Nova who they've beaten in every season since realignment.


**DING** **DING** **DING** The ref has decided to stop the fight. We have our winner!

Anyone who is watching college and BE BB regularly, who just ASSUMES that SHU will lose all of those 7 games, is highly suspect. I really like the SHU team. They've got some really good players on that squad who make you earn everyting. They lost on the road @ Creighton. That's it. Would anyone bet against CU at home the rest of the year?

Also don't sleep on Marquette yet. They lost away at SHU and at Nova. They've got a lot of games left to make some noise. Let's just let them play some of the games before we start handing out bids, shall we?

Stever it is far too early for you to start your yearly campaign of how everything is going to break poorly for the BE and perfectly for everyone else. C'mon man!


Yeah, if Seton Hall gets 7 more attempts in against the top 4 teams, including 3 at home, and they can't pull off at least one or two wins, then they aren't a tournament-quality team anyway. By the way, if we utilize Kenpom probabilities (the same ones selectively used by Stever), the odds of SHU losing all 7 games is 7.8%.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby Hall2012 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:38 pm

XUFan09 wrote:
GumbyDamnit! wrote:
Hall2012 wrote:
why do you look at those 7 games and think 7 losses? Seton Hall is perfectly capable of beating any of the top 4, including Nova who they've beaten in every season since realignment.


**DING** **DING** **DING** The ref has decided to stop the fight. We have our winner!

Anyone who is watching college and BE BB regularly, who just ASSUMES that SHU will lose all of those 7 games, is highly suspect. I really like the SHU team. They've got some really good players on that squad who make you earn everyting. They lost on the road @ Creighton. That's it. Would anyone bet against CU at home the rest of the year?

Also don't sleep on Marquette yet. They lost away at SHU and at Nova. They've got a lot of games left to make some noise. Let's just let them play some of the games before we start handing out bids, shall we?

Stever it is far too early for you to start your yearly campaign of how everything is going to break poorly for the BE and perfectly for everyone else. C'mon man!


Yeah, if Seton Hall gets 7 more attempts in against the top 4 teams, including 3 at home, and they can't pull off at least one or two wins, then they aren't a tournament-quality team anyway. By the way, if we utilize Kenpom probabilities (the same ones selectively used by Stever), the odds of SHU losing all 7 games is 7.8%.


4 of them are at home btw. The top 4 game they already played was the loss @ Creighton. Next up is @ Nova on 1 day of rest, so we can pretty much pencil in an 0-2 start, but with the 2 toughest games by far out of the way.
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Re: (2) Tuesday Big East Games 1/10/17

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:10 pm

XUFan09 wrote:
GumbyDamnit! wrote:
Hall2012 wrote:
why do you look at those 7 games and think 7 losses? Seton Hall is perfectly capable of beating any of the top 4, including Nova who they've beaten in every season since realignment.


**DING** **DING** **DING** The ref has decided to stop the fight. We have our winner!

Anyone who is watching college and BE BB regularly, who just ASSUMES that SHU will lose all of those 7 games, is highly suspect. I really like the SHU team. They've got some really good players on that squad who make you earn everyting. They lost on the road @ Creighton. That's it. Would anyone bet against CU at home the rest of the year?

Also don't sleep on Marquette yet. They lost away at SHU and at Nova. They've got a lot of games left to make some noise. Let's just let them play some of the games before we start handing out bids, shall we?

Stever it is far too early for you to start your yearly campaign of how everything is going to break poorly for the BE and perfectly for everyone else. C'mon man!


Yeah, if Seton Hall gets 7 more attempts in against the top 4 teams, including 3 at home, and they can't pull off at least one or two wins, then they aren't a tournament-quality team anyway. By the way, if we utilize Kenpom probabilities (the same ones selectively used by Stever), the odds of SHU losing all 7 games is 7.8%.

OK- SHU gets 2 wins out of those 7 games. They are at 4 wins. Would still need to go 5-3 vs the other 5 teams to just get to 19 wins, which they likely need to get in. They are projected to go 5-3, but that just shows you how close it is.

Bill nailed it, they are a bubble team. They have some great chances for great wins- but they have to capitalize on them. To count on them as being all that likely is a stretch right now. Now come Saturday, they may be very likely.
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