The Holy Land of Hoops

I know we talk about the tourney.... but lets look at what the P5, BE, A10, AAC, and others really have right now...
ACC- they have 8 teams in the top 56 of RPI- but 1 is Louisville. All are in the top 50 of Ken Pom. 7 seems very likely, but that's it.
B12- they have 7 teams in the top 25 of RPI. All 7 are in the top 37 of Ken Pom. 7 seems a lock, but that's it.
B10- they have 6 teams in the top 50 of RPI. All 6 are in the top 50 of Ken Pom. 6 seems a lock. Michigan is interesting- #51 in RPI/ 46 in KP.
P12- they have 7 teams in the top 32 of RPI. Oregon St is 65, Colorado 66 in KP. 5 seems a lock. Washington is in trouble.
SEC- they have 4 teams in the top 50 of RPI. South Carolina is 52 in KP(other 3 in top 50). 3 seems a lock. Alabama is 52 in RPI/but 78 in KP.
BE- they have 4 teams in the top 50 of RPI. PC is 59 in KP(other 3 in top 50). 3 seems a lock. Butler is 64 in RPI/ but 41 in KP
A10- they have 4 teams in the top 50 of RPI. St Bonaventure is 35 in RPI, but 74 in KP. GW is 48 in RPI, but 71 in KP. 2 seems a lock. Also- VCU is 63 in RPI/42 in KP
AAC- they have 2 teams in top 40 of RPI. Both are in top 50 of KP. 2 seems a lock. Also- Cincy is 59 in RPI, but 28 in KP. Temple is 57 in RPI, but 86 in KP(they are in trouble).

So with that- would seem that 35 teams are close to locks in the 8 conferences. Would be 27 at large spots. I really think South Carolina and PC are close to locks as well- despite their KP rating. So that would be 29 at large spots taken, with 7 left. Would think A10 gets a 3rd almost surely. 6 left.

Looking at the ACC, specifically Pitt and Syracuse, both have to go 2-1 over their final 3...

#45 Pitt has:
vs Duke.
at Virginia Tech.
at Georgia Tech.
According to RPI Wizard, if they go L-W-L or L-L-W, either way their RPI would be #58.

#56 Syracuse has:
vs NC State.
at North Carolina.
at Florida State.
According to RPI Wizard, if they go W-L-L or L-L-W, either way their RPI would be at #62.

billyjack wrote:Looking at the ACC, specifically Pitt and Syracuse, both have to go 2-1 over their final 3...

#45 Pitt has:
vs Duke.
at Virginia Tech.
at Georgia Tech.
According to RPI Wizard, if they go L-W-L or L-L-W, either way their RPI would be #58.

#56 Syracuse has:
vs NC State.
at North Carolina.
at Florida State.
According to RPI Wizard, if they go W-L-L or L-L-W, either way their RPI would be at #62.

both of them have top 50 Ken Pom's though. With how the committee looks at that- they should be fine....

It'll be interesting with Seton Hall in that lens. Right now they have a 34 KP rating. Lets say they lose these next 3 games, then beat DePaul. If SH can keep their KP rating in the 40's(right now it's 34)- I think they would probably be safe. But there- they can't get blown out. A game where it's supposed to be 75-76 X if X rolls them by 25, that's going to really hurt SH. Tonight is HUGE. projected 74-68 win. If they lose, it's got to be a 4-5 point loss tops.

Isn't the A10 a hot mess right now?

I believe VCU just lost to George Mason! There is no excuse for that.

Is GW still alive in this discussion?

I suppose St. Joe's is relatively safe at this point.

UD seems to be THE hot mess right now. They lost at LossSalle earlier this year, which simply was inexcusable, they barely got past a couple bad A10 teams recently with last shot heroics, they lost at St. Joe's, they got taken out at home by a pedestrian SBU, and they just set college basketball back two decades with that OT joke fest in St. Louis.

I assume the A10 is looking at 2 in safely: St. Joe's and UD. But UD had better get itself corrected and quickly or they'll at least be in trouble when it comes to seeding, if they aren't already.

Xudash wrote:Isn't the A10 a hot mess right now?

I believe VCU just lost to George Mason! There is no excuse for that.

Is GW still alive in this discussion?

I suppose St. Joe's is relatively safe at this point.

UD seems to be THE hot mess right now. They lost at LossSalle earlier this year, which simply was inexcusable, they barely got past a couple bad A10 teams recently with last shot heroics, they lost at St. Joe's, they got taken out at home by a pedestrian SBU, and they just set college basketball back two decades with that OT joke fest in St. Louis.

I assume the A10 is looking at 2 in safely: St. Joe's and UD. But UD had better get itself corrected and quickly or they'll at least be in trouble when it comes to seeding, if they aren't already.

It is a hot mess- BUT they still have 2 in safely- and they have teams playing each other like GW/VCU- where the winner will move up in stature. If I were a betting guy, I'd take them with 3. If nothing else- no lock that Dayton or St Joe's wins the tourney, and they steal a bid.

Xudash wrote:
UD seems to be THE hot mess right now. They lost at LossSalle earlier this year, which simply was inexcusable, they barely got past a couple bad A10 teams recently with last shot heroics, they lost at St. Joe's, they got taken out at home by a pedestrian SBU, and they just set college basketball back two decades with that OT joke fest in St. Louis.

UD had better get itself corrected and quickly or they'll at least be in trouble when it comes to seeding, if they aren't already.

I don't disagree with any of the above. Dayton has an unexpected problem - the absence (due to injury) of junior forward Kendall Pollard.

Kendall Pollard's 2015-16 Game Log ==> In games which Kendall Pollard has played, the Flyers are undefeated since December 12th.

Pollard is Dayton's 'glue guy'. He is Dayton's vocal leader on the court. He is Dayton's most athletic player and the Flyers' best defensive player over 6' tall.

Pollard spreads defenses and draws double-team defending. Without him in the line-up, Dayton lost to La Salle, St. Joseph's, St. Bonaventure, and nearly at Rhode Island and Saint Louis. The Flyers lack confidence and swagger when Pollard is not playing, and that has been a serious problem of late. It is presently not known if Pollard will play again this season, but it is hoped that he will be fit to play in March.

Pollard is not putting up all-conference stats, but his absence leaves a big hole in the Flyers' line-up that Archie has not been able to remedy.

Xudash wrote:
I believe VCU just lost to George Mason! There is no excuse for that.

Three weeks ago, Dayton blew out George Mason 98-64 on their homecourt - with Kendall Pollard in the line-up.