The Holy Land of Hoops

interesting matchups: ranks are KP/RPI
Tue:
#38/23 Providence 2-1 14-2 @ #40/99 Creighton 3-1 12-5- KP Creighton 80-76 64%
#160/171 DePaul 0-4 6-10 @ #11/1 Xavier 2-1 14-1- KP Xavier 84-65 95%
Wed:
#108/113 Marquette 2-2 12-4 @ #2/2 Villanova 4-0 14-2- KP Nova 79-61 96%
#78/104 Georgetown 3-1 10-6 @ #226/183 St John's 0-4 7-10- KP Georgetown 70-65 72%

Big RPI game for Creighton. And for Georgetown- a game they absolutely can not lose period if they want any hope of making the tourney....

So how does KenPom rank 12-5 Creighton #40 and 14-2 Providence #38? Makes me question KP's algorithm. Jays have no big wins, but Providence does. Jays lost at Loyola-Chicago (bad loss) and Providence lost at home to Marquette (less of a bad loss in my opinion, although at home). Still, what gives?

sciencejay wrote:So how does KenPom rank 12-5 Creighton #40 and 14-2 Providence #38? Makes me question KP's algorithm. Jays have no big wins, but Providence does. Jays lost at Loyola-Chicago (bad loss) and Providence lost at home to Marquette (less of a bad loss in my opinion, although at home). Still, what gives?

Providence hasn't really put some teams away like they should, leading to some close contests down the stretch (but ones they came out ahead in more than they did not). Creighton has done a slightly better job at putting away teams that they should. Plus, they have two one-possession losses, and their other losses are to two top 5 teams and a top 25 team on the road.

Kenpom does talk about how the formula can underrate certain teams, namely ones with a star player with a high FT rate. Kris Dunn's FT rate isn't that high, but still, most teams don't have a singular option that is that good and versatile in end-game situations, where the ball is usually put in the hands of a single player.

XUFan09 wrote:

sciencejay wrote:So how does KenPom rank 12-5 Creighton #40 and 14-2 Providence #38? Makes me question KP's algorithm. Jays have no big wins, but Providence does. Jays lost at Loyola-Chicago (bad loss) and Providence lost at home to Marquette (less of a bad loss in my opinion, although at home). Still, what gives?

Providence hasn't really put some teams away like they should, leading to some close contests down the stretch (but ones they came out ahead in more than they did not). Creighton has done a slightly better job at putting away teams that they should. Plus, they have two one-possession losses, and their other losses are to two top 5 teams and a top 25 team on the road.

Kenpom does talk about how the formula can underrate certain teams, namely ones with a star player with a high FT rate. Kris Dunn's FT rate isn't that high, but still, most teams don't have a singular option that is that good and versatile in end-game situations, where the ball is usually put in the hands of a single player.

total MOV- PC 9.1 Creighton 10.8. So that's hurt PC to some degree.

also think the road games here have helped- 10 point win @ St John's and then a 15 point win @ Seton Hall. With a 13 point home win vs Georgetown. Even the road loss at Indiana- because it was on the road- didn't hurt Creighton that much.

I think also you look at some of the teams behind Creighton- not exactly murderers row there. that's why its so close. Also the gap between 38 and 40- is .0110. The gap between 38 and 34(Butler) is .0088. Gap between 40 and 42(Texas Tech) is only .0013.