Summer Musings

[Bill Marsh]

Baseball has its winter "Hot Stove League" talks about the state of the baseball world. so, in that same spirit, I'm going to post some " Cold Stove" summer musings about college basketball history that may be of no interest to anyone but me. I was just killing time, so here's what I came up with.

NCAA Tournament History - in 1951, the NCAA expanded its tournament to 16 teams. From then on, it was pretty much recognized as the tournament which determined the national championship. Through the 1980's, Cathloic schools placed teams in the Final Four 24 of the next 39 years and won 6 NCAA tournament championships. Very competitive! Since 1990, Cathoic schools have placed only 3 teams in the Final 4 and have not won a tournament championship.

What happened?

I don't know. I'm thinking that the increased exposure of the tournament and the increased money led football schools - typically big state universities - to build up their basketball programs, which many of them had previously ignored. Florida is a good example of a football school that has achieved big success in the past 25 years when it preciously had none.

The other thing that happened was the emergence of several dynasties who have dominated the sport, leaving fewer Final 4 spots and championship opportunities for other teams. This is significant in an open tournament because such dynasties can block teams in any region from the Final 4. UCLA's dynasty teams only blocked West region teams from the Final Four. Those schools with their accomplishments since 1990 would be:

Duke - 5 NC, 9 FF
UConn - 4 NC, 5 FF
UNC - 3 NC, 9 FF
UK - 3 NC, 8 FF
MSU - 1 NC, 7 FF
KU - 1 NC, 6 FF

In sum, 4 schools have won 60% of the national championships (15 of 25) in the past 25 years and 6 schools have won 44 of the available 104 FF spots in the last 26 years. That really reduces opportunities for everyone else who is not one of those 4-6 programs.

Bottom line is that it's become a lot more competitive and a lot harder just to get to the Final Four, much less to win a national championship. So, I started to look at the Elite 8, which in the world of an expanded, open tournament seems like it might be a more similar accomplishment to the Final 4 in the old days. In this context, Catholic schools with 19 Elite 8's in 26 years look much more competitive than their 3 Final Fours suggested.

Here's the list with a couple of similar private schools in parentheses. Asterisk = Final Four.

2015 - Gonzaga, Notre Dame
2014 - Dayton
2013 - Marquette
2012 -
2011 - (Butler*)
2010 - (Butler*)
2009 - Villanova*
2008 - Xavier, (Davidson)
2007 - Georgetown*
2006 - Villanova
2005 -
2004 - Xavier, St. Joe's
2003 - Marquette*
2002 -
2001 -
2000 -
1999 - St. John's, Gonzaga
1998 -
1997 - Providence
1996 - Georgetown
1995 -
1994 - Boston College
1993 -
1992 -
1991 - St. John's, Seton Hall
1990 - Loyola-Marymount

Seven schools repeated, making 2 appearances:

Villanova*
Georgetown*
Marquette*
(Butler*)
Xavier
St. John's
Gonzaga

Two are football schools and are off in a different direction:

Notre Dame
Boston College

Three others made single appearances:

Providence
Dayton
Loyola-Marymount

NIT History - From it's inception in 1938, the NIT was a premier national event, the equal of the NCAA tournament in the 1940's. Even after the expansion of the NCAA tournament in 1951, the NIT remained relevant for about 15 years for 2 reasons:

1. In many seasons, the NIT included top ten teams
2. In many seasons, individual NCAA regions failed to have even a single team ranked in the top 20.

The combination of those 2 factors meant that winning an NIT championship was as big an accomplishment as winning a Final Four spot but then losing in the Final Four and then again in the consolation round. During those 15 years (1961-65), Catholic schools won 10 NIT titles. The Seton Hall '53 and Holy Cross '54 NIT champions were arguably the best teams in the country those years.

When those 10 NIT championships are added to the 24 Final Four teams in the 1951-89 period, it shows just how competitive that the Catholic schools were on the national level in those 39 years. Since 1990, we've been in a different era in which the level of competition has been raised. Formation of the new Big East has been every bit as significant a step in the effort to make the Catholic schools and other similar private school(s) successful again in Final Fours and to even bring us another national championship.

[stever20]

I think part of things quite frankly is before, kids were staying for all 4 years in college. That just doesn't happen any longer by any stretch of the imagination.

last 10 years-
3 Georgetown players- Jeff Green, Greg Monroe, Otto Porter
Steph Curry
Gordon Hayward
Randy Foye

only 6 players from the schools that you identified that were taken in the top 10 in the NBA draft.

back in the 80's you had drafts with Mullin, Ewing, Pickney, and Benjamin- all 4 getting taken in the same top 10 NBA draft

[Vill]

Good stuff, Bill. Glad to see you're back.

[novahoops11]

The point shaving scandals of the early '50s killed the NIT. Made Madison Square Garden radioactive, and moved the center of power in cbb away from New York and out toward the NCAA and its conferences.

[Xudash]

Good stuff, Bill. Glad to see you're back.

Second that. Very enjoyable reading.

[stever20]

look at the period from 1979-89.... So 11 years....
1989- Seton Hall+1 elite 8.
1988- 1 elite 8
1987- Providence+1 elite 8
1985- Villanova, Georgetown, St John's
1984- Georgetown+1 elite 8.
1983-1 elite 8
1982- Georgetown+2 elite 8's.
1981- 1 elite 8
1980- 1 elite 8
1979- DePaul+ 2 elite 8's.

8 final 4 appearances. With 2 titles. 11 other elite 8 appearances- making it 19 elite 8's in those 11 years. If you add to that 90 and 91 from your chart- it's 22 elite 8's from 79-91- 13 years. From 94 on, it's only been 16 elite 8's in 21 years. If you split your chart even further- 1st 19 years- so from 79-97- you have 25 appearances(out of 152 possible times)-with Loyola Marymount going so 24 from the Eastern Catholic Schools. 2nd 18 years- so from 98-15- you have only 12 appearances(out of 144 possible times)- with 2 of the 12 appearances being Gonzaga, so only 10 from the Eastern Catholic Schools.. That's pretty stark there.. It's kind of interesting using 98 as the year of change. 1998 was the year the BCS started.

Like I said earlier, the NBA draft has really hurt the Catholic schools- in 2 ways. College basketball has become a lot more just a stepping stone to get to the NBA- meaning kids are looking more at programs like Kentucky. But then at the same time when we do get a real good player, they leave early themselves. I mean, look at Iverson. He takes Georgetown to the elite 8 in '96. Then turns pro. That doesn't happen 10 years previously at all(Iverson was the 1st Georgetown guy under John Thompson to turn pro early).

I think also the tournament expanding to 64(and now 68) teams has changed a lot as well. I think that made things much more attractive for the bigger schools.

Just looking as well- I know just since 2007 to 2014, they say the number of Catholics in the US has dropped from 23.9% down to 20.8%. I think that limits to some degree how many come to Catholic schools.

[MUBoxer]

Very interesting. If you get bored you should expand to sweet 16s as that's still a very poor percentage in elite 8s. Also shows you that when it comes to small private schools Duke is seriously carrying the load with 11E8, 9Ff, 3RU, 5Championships during this 25yr time frame

[stever20]

found another pretty interesting chart on the pct of folks that are Catholic in the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historica ... ted_States
1980- 28%
1990- 25%
2000- 25%
2010- 21%
2014- 23%

very telling how the percentage has gone way down thru 2010- and interesting the rebound in this chart from 2010 to 2014(this doesn't mesh with the Pew data that I was seeing last night, so not sure which number for 2014 is right).. So I think the fact that the number of Catholics have decreased some probably has impacted at least somewhat the success of the Catholic schools.

[Bill Marsh]

Very interesting. If you get bored you should expand to sweet 16s as that's still a very poor percentage in elite 8s. Also shows you that when it comes to small private schools Duke is seriously carrying the load with 11E8, 9Ff, 3RU, 5Championships during this 25yr time frame

I'm not sure what "poor" means, but 19 E8's is a lot better than 3 Final Fours in that same era.

My reason for playing with this is because it's been discouraging to watch teams with outstanding regular seasons flame out in the postseason. Think recent Georgetown teams. I began to question whether it was still possible for smaller private schools - with catholic schools being my interest - to even successfully build a nationally competitive program any more.

I included all Catholic schools rather than just the Big East because they all face similar challenges in recruiting and maintaining players in the program. As times have changed, they've all been affected by those changes in a similar way. So, looking at all of them gives me a better sense of whether or not it can be done by any of them.

The fact that 13 programs - 15 if you include Butler and Davidson - could build their program to that level encourages me to believe that the programs of the Big East can continue to do that. I didn't even include the public school Cinderellas who have had success in this era while overcoming some of the same obstacles that we do - i.e. Wichita State, VCU, George Mason, UMass, erc. When those schools are thrown into the mix, it means that on average, there is a place at the table annually for schools that are not from the power football conferences, which are the programs with the most resources.

A single elimination tournament with many teams of similar ability leads to a lot of close games. Luck plays a part in which teams advance and which ones go home. However, trends over time lead to the conclusion that something more than luck is going on when a trend persists over time either in a positive or a negative way.

19 E8's in 26 seasons is a 73% annual rate. 22 is an 85% rate. While it could be better, I can live with that. Teams that get that far are capable of winning in the regional finals. Unfortunately there's been a high failure rate in those games that would get a team to the Final Four. To me, that indicates a different problem than would be the case if these schools weren't even getting team as far a stone E8. There have been a lot of close calls I that period which could have gone the other way. Let's hope that some of them start breaking our way.

I was looking for something to get me in a more optimistic frame of mind. This did it for me. I understand that it might not work for some other people

[Bill Marsh]

look at the period from 1979-89.... So 11 years....
1989- Seton Hall+1 elite 8.
1988- 1 elite 8
1987- Providence+1 elite 8
1985- Villanova, Georgetown, St John's
1984- Georgetown+1 elite 8.
1983-1 elite 8
1982- Georgetown+2 elite 8's.
1981- 1 elite 8
1980- 1 elite 8
1979- DePaul+ 2 elite 8's.

8 final 4 appearances. With 2 titles. 11 other elite 8 appearances- making it 19 elite 8's in those 11 years. If you add to that 90 and 91 from your chart- it's 22 elite 8's from 79-91- 13 years. From 94 on, it's only been 16 elite 8's in 21 years. If you split your chart even further- 1st 19 years- so from 79-97- you have 25 appearances(out of 152 possible times)-with Loyola Marymount going so 24 from the Eastern Catholic Schools. 2nd 18 years- so from 98-15- you have only 12 appearances(out of 144 possible times)- with 2 of the 12 appearances being Gonzaga, so only 10 from the Eastern Catholic Schools.. That's pretty stark there.. It's kind of interesting using 98 as the year of change. 1998 was the year the BCS started.

Like I said earlier, the NBA draft has really hurt the Catholic schools- in 2 ways. College basketball has become a lot more just a stepping stone to get to the NBA- meaning kids are looking more at programs like Kentucky. But then at the same time when we do get a real good player, they leave early themselves. I mean, look at Iverson. He takes Georgetown to the elite 8 in '96. Then turns pro. That doesn't happen 10 years previously at all(Iverson was the 1st Georgetown guy under John Thompson to turn pro early).

I think also the tournament expanding to 64(and now 68) teams has changed a lot as well. I think that made things much more attractive for the bigger schools.

Just looking as well- I know just since 2007 to 2014, they say the number of Catholics in the US has dropped from 23.9% down to 20.8%. I think that limits to some degree how many come to Catholic schools.

Thanks for your thoughts, Stever. I appreciate your analysis.

There's no doubt that we're in a different era than we were back in 1979 when the Big East was first formed. However, back then there were similar questions. It had been 25 years since LaSalle won the NVAA tournament. Back then the question was whether a national champion could ever again come out of "The East" (Northeast). The Big East was the vehicle that enabled the region to raise its profile and for individual programs to compete at a high level.

No one back then envisioned UConn becoming a dynastic program of the new era. Syracuse had been a football school that had gotten to one Final Four in its history. It still had a lot to prove. No one knew whether it could become the program that could win a NC and regularly get to Fours & E8's. While the Catholic schools had the most success initially, UConn and Syracuse are the 2 original programs that probably benefitted most from the formation of the Big East.those results were unforeseen and in some ways surprising.

While these times are different, there are some similarities in the challenges faced by the new Big East as were faced back then. I'm hoping that there can be equally surprising and unanticipated outcomes. As you aptly articulated, there are big challenges to overcome. But talent doesn't always determine who wins championships.

With all the talent that it has stockpiled under Calipari, Kentucky has won only 1 title in the past 5 years despite getting there 4 times. OTOH, UConn wasn't the favorite in any of the Final Fours from which they eventually won their 4 championships. I'll take the UConn results every day of the week.

The Northeast has never been a place where championship dynasties have been built. It's always been somebody else that's emerged at any given time. The rest of the country can have their Dukes, UNC's, Kentuckies, Kansas's, and UCLA's who dominate while everyone else plays 2nd fiddle. Where we live, it's done by a collective effort. I hope that by pulling together, we can have a return to the glory days that we once experienced here by the kinds of schools that we all love.