2015-16 Preview #5: Xavier

[R Jay]

I was honestly surprised to find today’s team in 6th place last season. I guess going to the Sweet 16 changes one’s perceptions about a team’s year.

Xavier Musketeers (23-14 overall, 9-9 Big East)
Sixth Place in Regular Season play, 6 Seed in Big East Tournament
NCAA Tournament, Sweet 16

Losses:
PG Dee Davis (graduated) - 37 GP, 32.8 MPG, 9.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 6.0 APG
C Matt Stainbrook (graduated) - 37 GP, 26.7 MPG, 12.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 2.4 APG
PG Brandon Randolph (transferred) - 23 GP, 9.7 MPG, 2.1 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 1.1 APG

Returnees:
G Remy Abell (Senior) - 37 GP, 27.6 MPG, 8.4 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.2 APG
F/C James Farr (Senior) - 37 GP, 15.6 MPG, 4.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 0.4 APG
F Kevin Coker (Senior -- walk-on) - 3 GP, 1.3 MPG, 0.7 PPG, 0.0 RPG, 0.0 APG
G Myles Davis (Junior) - 36 GP, 26.9 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.1 APG
F Tim Stainbrook (Junior) - 4 GP, 1.3 MPG, 0.0 PPG, 0.3 RPG, 0.0 APG
C Jalen Reynolds (Junior) - 37 GP, 20.3 MPG, 9.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 0.4 APG
G Larry Austin Jr. (Sophomore) - 25 GP, 4.3 MPG, 0.7 PPG, 0.4 RPG, 0.2 APG
G J.P. Macura (Sophomore) - 34 GP, 13.2 MPG, 5.4 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 0.6 APG
F Trevon Bluiett (Sophomore) - 37 GP, 28.3 MPG, 11.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.9 APG
C Sean O’Mara (Sophomore) - 25 GP, 4.2 MPG, 1.5 PPG, 0.7 RPG, 0.2 APG

Additions:
PG Edmond Sumner (Freshman -- redshirted last season) - 4 Star, #24 SG, #97 overall on Scout, 3 Star, NR on Rivals, 4 Star, #17 SG, #78 overall on ESPN
F/C Makinde London (Freshman -- redshirted last season) - 4 star, #22 PF on Scout, 4 Star, #83 overall on Rivals, 3 Star, #30 PF on ESPN

Recruits:
F/C RaShid Gaston (Senior -- transferred from Norfolk State and will sit out this season) - 32 GP, 31.1 MPG, 15.5 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 APG (2014-15 with Norfolk State)
F Kaiser Gates (Freshman) - 3 Star, #29 PF on Scout, 3 Star, #115 overall on Rivals, 4 Star, #24 PF on ESPN

Storylines:
The Stain-Train has left the station (I’ve always wanted to say that). Also gone are Dee Davis to graduation and Brandon Randolph to transfer. Most of last year’s core returns, however, headlined by Trevon Bluiett, Jalen Reynolds, Myles Davis, and Remy Abell. Edmond Sumner and Makinde London, two high profile recruits who redshirted last season, also return. Xavier also adds Kaiser Gates as a freshman. Also returning is Head Coach Chris Mack, who was rumored to have been a Florida target

Questions:
Can Jalen Reynolds fill Matt Stainbrook’s very big shoes? Reynolds really came on late in the year.
Who fills Dee Davis’s spot at Point Guard?
How much better will Trevon Bluiett be in his sophomore year?
How will Mack use Myles Davis next season?
Will the redshirted freshmen Edmond Sumner and Makinde London play big roles next year?
What will James Farr, Larry Austin Jr., J.P. Macura, and Sean O’Mara provide?
Will Freshman Kaiser Gates see the floor?

[xsteve1]

I think Jalen, Farr, O'mara, and London will fill the shoes of Stainbrook as a group.
Myles Davis ran some PG last year, so expect him to start with Sumner, Abel, and Austin to come off the bench.
Rumor is Bluiett lost about 20+ pounds since the end of year so expect him to be the go to guy and average about 15+.
Edmond will likely come off the bench to start the season but don't be surprised if he finds his way into the starting lineup especially if Myles Davis can't fill the load.
Farr will get around 9 rebounds per and be a senior leader for this team. Jp, Sumner, and O'Mara will likely be the first off the bench, while Austin will provide about 5-10 minutes a game.
Kaiser Gates will likely be a glue guy that can come in and stretch the floor and rebound, him and London will thrive in Mack's Zone defense.
Xavier will be a much more athletic team this year without Stainbrook clogging up the paint.
I expect Xavier to finish 1-4 in the Big East and be ranked at some point during the year.

[warriorfan4life]

Love this roster at every spot except for point guard. Myles Davis, Abell, Macura, Bluiett, Gates, London, Reynolds, Farr, and O'Mara are a great group at the 2-5 spots. However, having a potential hole at PG is a bad spot to be missing a key piece. If Edmond Sumner and/or Larry Austin can just set up the offense and be an honest threat to score when open, Xavier could compete for the Big East title. I believe that Sumner could be a quality lead guard in time, but not sure if he is ready for that role this season. Myles Davis is a really good basketball player, but I believe that he is best served playing off the ball and used as a secondary ball handler. It will hurt both himself and the team if he has to play big minutes at the point this year. I can understand why they made a strong run at Marquette freshman point guard Traci Carter. This is a really solid program that has been good during the vast majority of the Chris Mack era, and could be on the verge of taking the next step forward in the near future (believe that Xavier Simpson would be a massively big pick-up for them in the class of 2016 to shore up the point guard spot). Glad that things are on much better ground with Mack and the Xavier administration, and very glad that Xavier is part of the reformed Big East.

Edit: Testament to the quality of the Big East last year that Xavier finished alone in sixth place, as they proved to be a top 25 team in all competitions. Think they will be in a dog fight with Butler for third place this year, just a game or two behind Nova and Georgetown at the top.

[jaxalum]

Love this roster at every spot except for point guard. Myles Davis, Abell, Macura, Bluiett, Gates, London, Reynolds, Farr, and O'Mara are a great group at the 2-5 spots. However, having a potential hole at PG is a bad spot to be missing a key piece. If Edmond Sumner and/or Larry Austin can just set up the offense and be an honest threat to score when open, Xavier could compete for the Big East title. I believe that Sumner could be a quality lead guard in time, but not sure if he is ready for that role this season. Myles Davis is a really good basketball player, but I believe that he is best served playing off the ball and used as a secondary ball handler. It will hurt both himself and the team if he has to play big minutes at the point this year. I can understand why they made a strong run at Marquette freshman point guard Traci Carter. This is a really solid program that has been good during the vast majority of the Chris Mack era, and could be on the verge of taking the next step forward in the near future (believe that Xavier Simpson would be a massively big pick-up for them in the class of 2016 to shore up the point guard spot). Glad that things are on much better ground with Mack and the Xavier administration, and very glad that Xavier is part of the reformed Big East.

Edit: Testament to the quality of the Big East last year that Xavier finished alone in sixth place, as they proved to be a top 25 team in all competitions. Think they will be in a dog fight with Butler for third place this year, just a game or two behind Nova and Georgetown at the top.

Spot on Warrior. If Myles Davis is still playing PG at the halfpoint of the season, then something has gone awry. Sumner MAYBE has stopped growing as he has reportedly sprouted 4 inches in the last two years (redshirted due to tendonitis/result of growth spurt) and is listed anywhere from 6'4-6'6. I've heard that coaches may want to play him more off the ball (reason for recruiting PGs heavily in 2016 class i.e. Simpson, Goodin) although personally, having a PG that tall would be a huge bonus. I really liked T. Carter but glad he atleast stayed in the conference. I thought you guys were going to nab NC State transfer Kyle Washington this year, but instead he will be playing in that abandoned airport hangar 3 miles down the road from us (UC).

A best case scenario finish would be to challenge for the Big East title. Hopefully, worse case would be no lower than fifth or sixth.

[robinreed]

I really don't think anyone can replace Stainbrook this year however we are so much improved at all other positions (perhaps less so at point) that we should finish only behind nova and G-town. Butler will be improved as well.

[stever20]

Xavier has a pretty difficult OOC schedule this season.....
normal games-
Missouri
@ Michigan(Gavitt games)
Cincy
Auburn
@ Wake Forest

neutral site tourney is in Orlando. Dayton, Notre Dame, Wichita, Alabama, Iowa headliners. Going to be huge to win that 1st game to avoid seeing loser in 2nd game and then Monmouth/USC.

going to be key to get off to a good start- first 7 games, there could be 5 losable games in play. Then a real tough 3 game stretch right before Christmas with Cincy, Auburn, and Wake Forest. If X can enter conference play at 2-3 losses, they will be ranked extremely high.

[DudeAnon]

I think things are trending upwards for Xavier. Mack's coaching is evolving and we finally seem to have a solid young core to build around. We will still be too young to outright dominate, but I think the overall talent level is as very high.

Some observations. People are underrating Larry Austin Jr. He will be the de facto point guard imo. If Sumner is as good as people say I guess he will take over and Austin will probably transfer out. But if Sumner is not then Austin is a very solid replacement. Jalen will be a beast this year as he knows this is the year scouts will be watching. Macura and Bluiett I both expect to take huge leaps in offensive power. So yea, apart from youth, I don't really see any downsides to this team. If even half of the new guys pan out this team will be athletic and deep.

Guesses. 3rd place in the BE. 6 Seed in the NCAA. Sweet Sixteen.

[BEX]

I was honestly surprised to find today’s team in 6th place last season. I guess going to the Sweet 16 changes one’s perceptions about a team’s year

.....not to mention a Top 25 finish. Lots of folks thought it was a "rebuilding" yr. for X. We did make a lot of "rookie" mistakes, especially early on, but Mack's teams have a way of building up to a crescendo in March.
Honestly, we've never had this much talent on one team, but that's expected in the BE. Lots of very good options and "pieces" here. I expect Mack to do his usual tinkering in the OOC to see who can play. The Frosh played too "tentative" for me last year. They'll be hungry and ready to go now with the NCAA confidence under their belts. Macura never got in a a rhythm last year. If he finds his shot this year which I fully expect him to do, I expect a huge difference. Should be a good or better offensive club.
Defense will be the key for this team as usual. London and Reynolds at 6"10 and with 73" wingspans should cause a lot of havoc and blocks. Farr is more of a defensive specialist also and seems to take pride in it. Should be interesting if they play some 1-3-1.
Travon, Myles, Jalen and Remy will get their shots. Hopefully, Macura will light it up this yr.
Sumner will not play like a rookie. If he is 100%, I expect he will move quickly into the PG role. At 6'6" with his speed and quickness, I just hope he learns to take care of the ball effectively and soon.

I expect this team to compete for the League Championship.

[gtmoBlue]

I see a very rough start to the season for X. With unproven bigs in the post and unproven PGs in Austin and Sumner - that exempt tourney will be a killer.

X loses @ Michigan, loses 2 in Orlando, and the Cincy rivalry game.
Things go south from there. If they can maintain cohesion and team chemistry, they could finish as high as 4th in the BE.
Since there is so much youth on the squad I see X battling with Butler, Marquette, and Prov for 4th - 7th.
Xavier finishes 5th over butler/prov - dances again.

[BEX]

Michigan and UC should be ranked when we meet, so don't see a loss as a problem. Don't see UC winning @ the raucous Cintas Center and the Classic matchups haven't even been announced.