2015-16 Preview #2: Marquette

[stever20]

I understand what you are saying, but I disagree. He has to be good, but he is six- four, six - nine wingspan, great athlete, with unique vision. Melo Trimble, briscoe, and Jackson have to be a lot better because, with the exception of Jackson, they are not close to the athlete. That is my point, he is the top point in the draft and it is not close. Have you watched him play? It is a unique circumstance and why he followed good advice to make an excellent business decision to come back to school.

Except that's not the case at all. The NBA drafts on potential. By the time we get to next June- pretty much all of Dunn's flaws will be exposed. All the incoming frosh- won't.

Just googled NBA 2016 mock draft... found this
http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

looks like they have Dunn going #13. Lots of bigs going early.

What is interesting about this mock is they don't have Ellensen going early. Will be interesting to see if that remains the case next year..

[hoyahooligan]

I understand what you are saying, but I disagree. He has to be good, but he is six- four, six - nine wingspan, great athlete, with unique vision. Melo Trimble, briscoe, and Jackson have to be a lot better because, with the exception of Jackson, they are not close to the athlete. That is my point, he is the top point in the draft and it is not close. Have you watched him play? It is a unique circumstance and why he followed good advice to make an excellent business decision to come back to school.

No I've never watched Kris Dunn play

[Hoya33]

My point is that he will be the first point guard taken in the draft and that offers the most likely path towards maximizing a player's career earnings.

I have no idea what point your making. You offer about four contrary, but not directly related points and then provide a link that supports mine. Thank you, I guess.

I understand what you are saying, but I disagree. He has to be good, but he is six- four, six - nine wingspan, great athlete, with unique vision. Melo Trimble, briscoe, and Jackson have to be a lot better because, with the exception of Jackson, they are not close to the athlete. That is my point, he is the top point in the draft and it is not close. Have you watched him play? It is a unique circumstance and why he followed good advice to make an excellent business decision to come back to school.

Except that's not the case at all. The NBA drafts on potential. By the time we get to next June- pretty much all of Dunn's flaws will be exposed. All the incoming frosh- won't.

Just googled NBA 2016 mock draft... found this
http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

looks like they have Dunn going #13. Lots of bigs going early.

What is interesting about this mock is they don't have Ellensen going early. Will be interesting to see if that remains the case next year..

[stever20]

The overall draft position is what matters. 2015 draft, Dunn would have gone in the 14-18 range- could possibly have gone up a smidge higher...
now this year, he's projected 13. That's not a big upgrade, but comes with all the risks.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Not sure how a Marq thread morphed into a Kris Dunne thread but it is interesting debate either way.

I'm glad that you now also agree Stever that Dunne sticking around for another year might not have been the best decision.

Last year after Mudiay was taken another PG didn't come off the board until #14 and then another at #16. Let's assume that one of those would have been Dunne. For argument's sake we'll say he goes at #15, right where the mock experts believed. He is now expected to go in the #12-15 range. So he comes back in order to move up maybe two spots? He already missed out on $1.6M for this year. So again assuming no injury this year which could be catastrophic, if he gets drafted at 13 his salary is 1.77M. Over 5 years that is maybe 600K in salary difference. So he just lost about $1M between now and 5 years from now. And to boot at age 26 he will be in his last year of the rookie contract instead of potentially making $10M+ / year as a 6th year player. Losing salary in your prime years is the mistake, not when you're 20-21.

His only hope is to completely blow up, carry his team while shooting 40%+ from 3 and limiting his turnovers significantly. The Catch-22 is that with the losses PC has had Dunne is going to be asked to do even more this year, which might lead to him forcing things. Seldom does a player improve shooting % and turnover % when asked to burden more of the load. His scoring should certainly go up but if he's shooting 40% overall and 30% from 3, with the amount of turnovers we saw last year, his stock isn't going to improve much IMO.

[GumbyDamnit!]

My point is that he will be the first point guard taken in the draft and that offers the most likely path towards maximizing a player's career earnings.

I have no idea what point your making. You offer about four contrary, but not directly related points and then provide a link that supports mine. Thank you, I guess.

The guys that get paid to do this for a living disagree with you...

[Hoya33]

I am not a Providence fan, but I do like Kris Dunn. I do hate dopey, cliche arguments. Most college fans now argue something like this, NCAA is corrupt, players do not get paid, do not listen to selfish coaches who make millions, and leave as soon as possible so you extend your player earning years. This ignores that half of all point guards drafted after the first two have to fight for a second contract and most make the minimum. If you have the ability to be a top pick, it is in your interest to be that. It is not about one contract, it is about having a career.

What paid experts say otherwise? Please provide a link.

http://www.draftexpress.com Stever20 here is one for you overall position argument. I have seen others with him in the top 5. None of it really matters until the draft.


How are Malik Wayan and semaj Christon doing?

My point is that he will be the first point guard taken in the draft and that offers the most likely path towards maximizing a player's career earnings.

I have no idea what point your making. You offer about four contrary, but not directly related points and then provide a link that supports mine. Thank you, I guess.

The guys that get paid to do this for a living disagree with you...

[billyjack]

Good discussion on Kris Dunn, and believe me Friartown has debated these points a lot.

So, the make-up of PC this year is a lot different than 2015. Last year we had a nightly bricklaying convention from deep. This year, we've lost our frontcourt size and depth, but have added 3 freshmen shooters to join Jalen Lindsey. Really the only reliable scorer that has moved on is Henton.

2015 3p% (players with more than 15 3pa):
Dunn 35%. 22-77.
Henton 34%. 64-189.
Lindsey 33%. 31-94.
Bentil 30%. 9-30.
Harris 28%. 22-77.
Cartwright 12%. 4-33.
as a team, the Friars shot 31% from three.

Lindsey was 5-6 in our Florida State blowout, but sprained his ankle and it messed up his shot. Late in the year though, he got hot. In Lindsey's last 2 games, both high-pressure, he went 3-5 vs Villanova in the BET, then 4-8 vs Dayton in the NCAA. He looked more comfortable and healthy.

Harris was really weak from three at 28%, and he wasn't shy about chucking them up (tied for 3rd on team in 3pa).
Cartwright was really bad at 12%.

So, this year's freshman class includes SG Ricky Council II, SF Ryan Fazekas, and SG Drew Edwards. Each is supposed to be a great outside shooter. At a minimum, they should be able to maintain last year's poor team 3p% of 31%. This will open up the lane even more for Dunn. Chukwu leaving in May really did hose things up, but overall I think PC will have more reliable scoring options. Again, for most of last year is was the Dunn-Henton show, until late year when Bentil had a bunch of double-doubles, and when Lindsey got hot.

Now, Kris Dunn himself is an amazing athlete and talent, so probability wise, he should continue to play great.

[stever20]

Good discussion on Kris Dunn, and believe me Friartown has debated these points a lot.

So, the make-up of PC this year is a lot different than 2015. Last year we had a nightly bricklaying convention from deep. This year, we've lost our frontcourt size and depth, but have added 3 freshmen shooters to join Jalen Lindsey. Really the only reliable scorer that has moved on is Henton.

2015 3p% (players with more than 15 3pa):
Dunn 35%. 22-77.
Henton 34%. 64-189.
Lindsey 33%. 31-94.
Bentil 30%. 9-30.
Harris 28%. 22-77.
Cartwright 12%. 4-33.
as a team, the Friars shot 31% from three.

Lindsey was 5-6 in our Florida State blowout, but sprained his ankle and it messed up his shot. Late in the year though, he got hot. In Lindsey's last 2 games, both high-pressure, he went 3-5 vs Villanova in the BET, then 4-8 vs Dayton in the NCAA. He looked more comfortable and healthy.

Harris was really weak from three at 28%, and he wasn't shy about chucking them up (tied for 3rd on team in 3pa).
Cartwright was really bad at 12%.

So, this year's freshman class includes SG Ricky Council II, SF Ryan Fazekas, and SG Drew Edwards. Each is supposed to be a great outside shooter. At a minimum, they should be able to maintain last year's poor team 3p% of 31%. This will open up the lane even more for Dunn. Chukwu leaving in May really did hose things up, but overall I think PC will have more reliable scoring options. Again, for most of last year is was the Dunn-Henton show, until late year when Bentil had a bunch of double-doubles, and when Lindsey got hot.

Now, Kris Dunn himself is an amazing athlete and talent, so probability wise, he should continue to play great.

With Dunn IMO, he can't just continue to play great. He's got to be better. If he plays next year as good as he did last year- his draft stock will if anything slip. That's the nature of the NBA draft.

I think it'll be interesting to see how much Dunn is able to gamble this year. Last year, he could gamble some on defense knowing he had the bigs behind him. That's not the case this year at all.

I think part of folks thoughts with Dunn as well is the fact how injury prone he's been. Kind of tough to pass up 5 million dollars which is what he was looking at this year.

PC is going to be a very interesting team this year....

Going to the link with that mock draft- it has Ellensen being #8. I think he's close to a lock being a 1 and done. And #8 may be a bit pessimistic.

That one has Cheick Diallo as #14. I'm sorry- but given what we saw, don't think there's a chance he slips to #14. He's #4 in the one I posted. That seems a lot more realistic.

[billyjack]

From an article in the New London Day, Kris Dunn's hometown newspaper...

http://www.theday.com/local-sports/2015 ... -nba-stars

"Kris Dunn almost couldn't believe what he heard. During a conversation with Kevin Durant at the Nike Basketball Academy in late June, the NBA megastar called Dunn one of his favorite college players. "It was kind of shocking that he said that," Dunn said. "But it was appreciated."

Word has certainly gotten out about the former New London High School All-American, whose reputation and talent continue to attract attention as he prepares for his junior season at Providence College. By all reports, Dunn turned in an impressive performance at the elite camp held in Santa Monica, Calif.

He was one of 26 college basketball players selected to attend. They learned from current and former NBA stars, including LeBron James, James Harden and Russell Westbrook, just to name a few. NBA front office personnel watched from the sidelines."