2015-16 Preview #2: Marquette

[R Jay]

Today I'll look at the team who is expected to be much improved next year: the Marquette Golden Eagles.

Marquette Golden Eagles (13-19 overall, 4-14 Big East)
Tied for Last Place in Regular Season play, 9 Seed in Big East Tournament
No Post-Season Tournament

Losses:
G Matt Carlino (graduated) - 28 GP, 33.0 MPG, 15.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.1 APG
G Derrick Wilson (graduated) - 32 GP, 32.9 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 4.7 APG
F Juan Anderson (graduated) - 31 GP, 28.5 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.7 APG
G Deonte Burton (transferred) - 8 GP, 16.1 MPG, 6.4 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 0.3 APG
G John Dawson (transferred) - 1 GP, 4.0 MPG, 0.0 PPG, 0.0 RPG, 0.0 APG
F Steve Taylor Jr. (transferred) - 32 GP, 22.1 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 0.4 APG
F Matthew Mache (left team -- walk on) - 3 GP, 1.0 MPG, 0.0 PPG, 0.0 RPG, 0.0 APG

Returnees:
F JaJuan Johnson (Junior) - 31 GP, 21.7 MPG, 7.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.8 APG
C Luke Fischer (Junior) - 24 GP, 29.3 MPG, 11.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.9 APG
G Duane Wilson (Sophomore) - 32 GP, 28.1 MPG, 11.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.1 APG
G/F Sandy Cohen III (Sophomore) - 31 GP, 15.0 MPG, 3.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 0.8 APG
G/F Michael Mache (Junior -- walk on) - 4 GP, 1.5 MPG, 0.5 PPG, 0.5 RPG, 0.0 APG

Additions:
G/F Wally Ellenson (Junior -- redshirted last season after transferring from Minnesota) - 9 GP, 6.9 MPG, 1.8 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 0.2 APG (2013-14 with Minnesota)

Recruits:
G Andrew Rowsey (Junior -- transferred from UNC-Asheville and will sit out this season) - 31 GP, 32.6 MPG, 19.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.9 APG (2014-15 with UNC-Asheville)
F/C Henry Ellenson (Freshman) - 5 Star, #3 C, #7 overall on Scout, 5 Star, #11 overall on Rivals, 5 Star, #2 C, #5 overall on ESPN
G Haanif Cheatham (Freshman) - 4 Star, #28 SG, #94 overall on Scout, 4 Star, #76 overall on Rivals, 4 Star, #26 SG, #85 overall on ESPN
PG Traci Carter (Freshman) - 4 Star, #19 PG on Scout, 4 Star, #90 overall on Rivals, 4 Star, #30 PG on ESPN
F/C Matt Heldt (Freshman) - 4 Star, #17 C, #73 overall on Scout, 3 Star, NR on Rivals, 4 Star, #23 C on ESPN
G Sacar Anim (Freshman) - NR on Scout, 3 Star, NR on Rivals, 4 Star, #37 SG on ESPN
PG Christian Haffner (Freshman -- walk-on) - NR on Scout, Rivals, nor ESPN
PG Cam Marotta (Freshman -- walk-on) - NR on Scout, Rivals, nor ESPN

Storylines:
Starters Matt Carlino, Derrick Wilson, Juan Anderson, plus Steve Taylor Jr. are gone from last year's 13-19 squad. Their losses seem to be offset by the incredibly talented freshmen class including consensus top 15 Henry Ellenson and top 100 Haanif Cheatham. Last year's starters Duane Wilson and Luke Fischer, plus JaJuan Johnson and Sandy Cohen also return. Wally Ellenson becomes eligible as well. The front line of Ellenson, Fischer, and Heldt will be much improved from last year, but the backcourt could struggle with Duane Wilson the only returnee. Traci Carter will probably have to start immediately at point. Andrew Rowsey was a dynamic guard in the Big South, but has to sit 2015-16 out due to transfer rules.

Questions:
Will Henry Ellenson be as good as billed?
Will Traci Carter be a steady, reliable option at point guard?
How fast will the team put it together?
Will Duane Wilson and Luke Fischer make progress and be improved from last year?
Is the depth that was clearly missing last year going to be there this year?
What will returnees JaJuan Johnson and Sandy Cohen provide?
What if some of the freshmen core isn't ready to go?

[MUBoxer]

Marquette will live and die based on what Cohen and Johnson do with their experience. We know Luke and Duane are able to compete with anybody in the BE, Henry will in the very least be serviceable. On such a young team you need the few experienced players (even Wally with the little experience he has) to step up big time.

[stever20]

OOC schedule has some tough games...

Iowa in the Gavitt Games
2 of Arizona St, LSU, NC State in the Exempt tournament
Wisconsin
kind of a sneaky game in Belmont in the exempt tournament as well

So 4 really difficult games and then maybe a 5th with Belmont. Decent schedule, but not too tough.

[gtmoBlue]

Rjay, these previews are fairly in-depth ones thus far.
Would you please add your predicted order of finish, for each team, in the conference for this upcoming season?

It appears that MU only has 11 players on scholie (counting both transfers). Is this accurate?
With no Srs and 3 Jrs on the roster including transfer W. Ellenson, depth will definitely continue to be an issue this season. Only 10 of the 11 scholied players are eligible to play (the newest transfer is sitting out per NCAA rules).
Developing a good team chemistry and having all the newcomers buying in and jelling asap will tell the tale.

That Italy excursion in August will be crucial for the Warriors/GE's. More so than for Creighton and G'twn (also taking trips to Italy in August) as both have more experienced returnees.

Many seem to expect a 1 year turnaround for MU, but such optimism is hollow as it is predicated on Frosh of the Year performances from 2 or more of their incoming class. Given the learning curve for frosh in Div 1, such optimism is not warranted, especially if the players are thrust into the mix on a shorthanded team.

[stever20]

learning curve for frosh in div 1? Are you serious? Did you watch the final 4?

[R Jay]

Rjay, these previews are fairly in-depth ones thus far.
Would you please add your predicted order of finish, for each team, in the conference for this upcoming season?

It appears that MU only has 11 players on scholie (counting both transfers). Is this accurate?
With no Srs and 3 Jrs on the roster including transfer W. Ellenson, depth will definitely continue to be an issue this season. Only 10 of the 11 scholied players are eligible to play (the newest transfer is sitting out per NCAA rules).
Developing a good team chemistry and having all the newcomers buying in and jelling asap will tell the tale.

That Italy excursion in August will be crucial for the Warriors/GE's. More so than for Creighton and G'twn (also taking trips to Italy in August) as both have more experienced returnees.

Many seem to expect a 1 year turnaround for MU, but such optimism is hollow as it is predicated on Frosh of the Year performances from 2 or more of their incoming class. Given the learning curve for frosh in Div 1, such optimism is not warranted, especially if the players are thrust into the mix on a shorthanded team.

I was planning on doing that when I finish up my previews. I think it's better that I wait because one, there could still be roster changes before the season (Gabe Levin left Marquette before the season even began last year), and two, because I believe if I make my predictions before I get through every team I lose my objectivity in the eyes of the board. Honestly, I have a general idea of how the conference will finish, but have yet to put every team 1-10.
It indeed appears Marquette only has 11 scholarship players, but they could still get a transfer or a late signer before classes begin. I don't know if they are still actively recruiting anyone for the class of 2015. Marquette fans feel free to chime in on this.
It's going to be all about them gelling. There's no doubt that they have good talent going forward, but can they play together will be the deciding factor on whether they are on the bubble or fighting for a post-season birth of any kind.

[Jet915]

Assuming Carter can handle the PG duties, id expect marquette to be a bubble team.

[MUBoxer]

We're done recruiting for players eligible this year (that one nc state guy were still after). I don't think it'll take unbelievable performances by most the freshmen. Yes Henry will need to live up to his billing, but like I said Luke and Duane can compete with anybody so really if Johnson and Cohen make a natural progression as does Wally we'll be decent. If they platoo though, then it's a different story.

[warriorfan4life]

Very fair and accurate preview. Marquette is probably the team with the largest potential variance, as I could believe anything from a third to ninth place finish (believe that Nova and Georgetown are the clear 1-2, and Seton Hall is my clear last place team). A healthy Luke Fischer has the potential to be the second best big man in the conference this year behind Nova's Daniel Ochefu, and Duane Wilson flashed game-breaking potential at times last year (almost single handedly won the Tennessee game for us and damn near won us the Georgetown game at home). Are those two players good (moderate step up from last year), very good (in the discussion for All-Big East), or excellent (one or both make the all-conference teams)? After that, it is a question of how good Henry Ellenson will be off the bat (my best guess is a similar level of contribution as Fischer last year) and what can players 4-10 contribute? Early reports on both Traci Carter and Sacar Anim are very favorable, and both will have plenty of opportunities to contribute. I love big guards like Haanif Cheatham, and believe that he will be excellent in time. I like the long-term potential and skills of Sandy Cohen, but he needs to be more comfortable on the court and react naturally (looked like a deer in headlights for much of conference play). Not a fan at all of Jajuan Johnson's game, and am surprised that he is still at Marquette (Wojo would have never recruited him, and he is originally from the South in Memphis). I credit him for sticking it out at Marquette and he slowly started to show signs of fitting into a structured system towards the end of last season. Matt Heldt should be a strong contributor in his upperclassman years, but ideally would redshirt next season. Wally Ellenson could provide nice energy off the bench as a pesky, energy type that will throw down some impressive dunks.

My one regret during this offseason is not landing an immediately eligible frontcourt player, and the team really could have used Cornell grad transfer Shonn Miller (who chose UConn over Marquette). He could have provided needed experience and rebounding ability in the frontcourt, and eliminated some of the negative possibilities for next season. I am cautiously optimistic that Marquette competes for an NCAA bid next year and expect significant improvement off of last year's overall and conference record (at least 3-4 games better overall and 3-4 wins better in conference). Pretty optimistic about the long-term direction of the program under Wojo, and would love to get back where the Marquette program belongs in the NCAA Tournament (and compete for the Big East title a year from now). Really like 2016 commitment Sam Hauser, and believe that Hauser and Rowsey will ensure that Marquette never struggles from deep again under Wojo.

[R Jay]

Very fair and accurate preview. Marquette is probably the team with the largest potential variance, as I could believe anything from a third to ninth place finish (believe that Nova and Georgetown are the clear 1-2, and Seton Hall is my clear last place team). A healthy Luke Fischer has the potential to be the second best big man in the conference this year behind Nova's Daniel Ochefu, and Duane Wilson flashed game-breaking potential at times last year (almost single handedly won the Tennessee game for us and damn near won us the Georgetown game at home). Are those two players good (moderate step up from last year), very good (in the discussion for All-Big East), or excellent (one or both make the all-conference teams)? After that, it is a question of how good Henry Ellenson will be off the bat (my best guess is a similar level of contribution as Fischer last year) and what can players 4-10 contribute? Early reports on both Traci Carter and Sacar Anim are very favorable, and both will have plenty of opportunities to contribute. I love big guards like Haanif Cheatham, and believe that he will be excellent in time. I like the long-term potential and skills of Sandy Cohen, but he needs to be more comfortable on the court and react naturally (looked like a deer in headlights for much of conference play). Not a fan at all of Jajuan Johnson's game, and am surprised that he is still at Marquette (Wojo would have never recruited him, and he is originally from the South in Memphis). I credit him for sticking it out at Marquette and he slowly started to show signs of fitting into a structured system towards the end of last season. Matt Heldt should be a strong contributor in his upperclassman years, but ideally would redshirt next season. Wally Ellenson could provide nice energy off the bench as a pesky, energy type that will throw down some impressive dunks.

My one regret during this offseason is not landing an immediately eligible frontcourt player, and the team really could have used Cornell grad transfer Shonn Miller (who chose UConn over Marquette). He could have provided needed experience and rebounding ability in the frontcourt, and eliminated some of the negative possibilities for next season. I am cautiously optimistic that Marquette competes for an NCAA bid next year and expect significant improvement off of last year's overall and conference record (at least 3-4 games better overall and 3-4 wins better in conference). Pretty optimistic about the long-term direction of the program under Wojo, and would love to get back where the Marquette program belongs in the NCAA Tournament (and compete for the Big East title a year from now). Really like 2016 commitment Sam Hauser, and believe that Hauser and Rowsey will ensure that Marquette never struggles from deep again under Wojo.

+1
Thanks for the fantastic insight.
I appreciate all the feedback from fans of their respective teams.