Others must be wondering too…is UK overrated?

[Steve Lavin]

Now before some of you call me nuts, hear me out.

Are they the best team right now? Probably. But are they just going to sweep through the SEC and NCAA tourney unscathed? I would bet no with good money. The law of averages is weighing harder and harder against UK every game they win. I just took a look at the SEC. They have FIVE teams with RPI's of 100 or worse including one 200+. When you play these teams a lot, it's going to inflate your record. I'd take a 30-2 ACC/B1G/Big 12/Big East team over a 30-0 SEC team any day. Yes, UK won against L'Ville but barely. Yes they beat a few other good teams, but do you really think if they played in the ACC/B1G/Big 12 they would still be undefeated? I guarantee they wouldn't be. If you look at UK's team stats, they really don't jump out at you. Some are ranked 30th.

I also think ESPN has made them a huge hype machine like Tebow making them seem way better than they really are. Everything you hear is OMG Calipari! OMG Kentucky! OMG! Dick Vitale at a Kentucky game! OMG they are going to win it all easily! This team can be beaten. I just don't think they are as special as people make them seem. PC beat #1 Pitt a few years back, SJU killed a top 5 Duke team by 22 at the Garden a few years ago and was the last team to beat Duke at Duke OOC. Florida Gulf Coast beat G'Town, George Mason made the Final Four, etc. The great thing about college hoops is its unpredictability. Unlike college football which is pretty predictable, anything can happen in college hoops. Hell, Curry almost won Davidson a title. Am I weird to think that the Anthony Davis UK team was a lot better? My point people, is that there is all this UK hysteria and they play in the 5th best conference with 1 other ranked team not normally ranked, and ESPN is making it seem like they will win by 40 from now until the title game of the NCAA's.

As a matter of fact, I guarantee UK will not win the championship. It would just be too perfect. This is college hoops. Every team has a bad game and sometimes mediocre teams have the game of their lives.

[Bill Marsh]

A few quick thoughts on what I think is a really interesting topic. Let's take a look at Kentucky's last loss to UConn to see what it takes.

1. Everything has to go right. For example, Kentucky shot 54% from the line while UConn shot 100%. If the two teams had shot their season averages, it would have been a different game.

2. Defense. Defense. Defense. Kentucky's size advantage in the backcourt proved not to be a an advantage at all. The little UConn guards held the Harrison twins to 10 points below their combined season averages and turned them over enough to compensate for the Kentucky rebounding advantage. The 2-headed UConn center (Nolan/Brimah) held Julius Randle well below his season averages in points and rebounds. They used up 8 fouls doing it, but it didn't matter because neither was important to the UConn offense.

3. Pace. UConn was able to control tempo and keep Kentucky from getting out on the break for most of the game.

4. Big games from someone. Napier and Boatright combined for 36 points, completely outplaying the Harrisons on both ends of the floor.

5. Poise. UConn was mostly a veteran team with tournament experience. They didn't get rattled nor did they seem at all intimidated by Kentucky and actually seemed to relish the moment.

6. Luck/Injury. And, oh by the way, Willie Cauley-Stein, probably Kentucky's best athlete and chief intimidator, didn't play due to an ankle injury.

It can happen, but the stars have to align and the right team has to be there to rise to the occasion and take advantage of the opportunity when those stats are aligned. It will be harder to do this year because Kentucky has more experience and will be hungry for the title that eluded them last year.

[RedStormHoops]

I think the 3 other 1 seeds, duke, Virginia, and nova, could all beat Kentucky. Villanova would need to get hot from 3 but they could do it

[stever20]

Now before some of you call me nuts, hear me out.

Are they the best team right now? Probably. But are they just going to sweep through the SEC and NCAA tourney unscathed? I would bet no with good money. The law of averages is weighing harder and harder against UK every game they win. I just took a look at the SEC. They have FIVE teams with RPI's of 100 or worse including one 200+. When you play these teams a lot, it's going to inflate your record. I'd take a 30-2 ACC/B1G/Big 12/Big East team over a 30-0 SEC team any day. Yes, UK won against L'Ville but barely. Yes they beat a few other good teams, but do you really think if they played in the ACC/B1G/Big 12 they would still be undefeated? I guarantee they wouldn't be. If you look at UK's team stats, they really don't jump out at you. Some are ranked 30th.

I also think ESPN has made them a huge hype machine like Tebow making them seem way better than they really are. Everything you hear is OMG Calipari! OMG Kentucky! OMG! Dick Vitale at a Kentucky game! OMG they are going to win it all easily! This team can be beaten. I just don't think they are as special as people make them seem. PC beat #1 Pitt a few years back, SJU killed a top 5 Duke team by 22 at the Garden a few years ago and was the last team to beat Duke at Duke OOC. Florida Gulf Coast beat G'Town, George Mason made the Final Four, etc. The great thing about college hoops is its unpredictability. Unlike college football which is pretty predictable, anything can happen in college hoops. Hell, Curry almost won Davidson a title. Am I weird to think that the Anthony Davis UK team was a lot better? My point people, is that there is all this UK hysteria and they play in the 5th best conference with 1 other ranked team not normally ranked, and ESPN is making it seem like they will win by 40 from now until the title game of the NCAA's.

As a matter of fact, I guarantee UK will not win the championship. It would just be too perfect. This is college hoops. Every team has a bad game and sometimes mediocre teams have the game of their lives.

The problem with looking at the # of teams with bad RPI's is the fact that they aren't playing a double round robin.
1st point- 2 of the teams we are talking about are #101 and #106.
2nd point- they've played only Missouri 2x of the teams with a sub 100 RPI. Only played the other 4 teams once. So only 6 games with a sub 100 RPI in conference play. And could be down to 4 by the end of the week. So they aren't playing bad teams a lot like you claim because they do not have a double round robin.
3rd point- They played a 3 game stretch of those bad teams here a few weeks ago- Feb 17/21/25. I think that's a huge advantage for them because it gave them a bit of a break. Came back on Saturday a beat up a good Arkansas team.

It's going to take a team playing a near perfect game to have a chance to beat them. Can't let up for even a minute. Georgia did for like 3 minutes and it was a huge run against them that they never recovered from.