Wed Feb 18th - 2G - XU-Cinc, PC-DePaul...

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Re: Wed Feb 18th - 2G - XU-Cinc, PC-DePaul...

Postby stever20 » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:50 am

Bill Marsh wrote:Straw Man argument, Stever. You're the only one who's used the word "collapse" in association with the AAC.

Regardless of how good the top of that league is in any given year, the bottom half is horrible. That's why it's a bad league. Who wants to watch games in a league when half the time, the opponent has no shot of winning?

The worst team in the Big East this year is Creighton with an RPI rank of 145. But that would put them middle of the pack at 7th if they were the 12th team in the American, God forbid. Here are the RPI ranks of the bottom 5 teams in the AAC:

160 - Tulane
218 - UCF
229 - East Carolina
238 - South Florida
266 - Houston

Those are the teams against whom the teams in top half of the league are building their records against, teams that are non-competitive, any one of whom would easily be the worst team in the Big East.

What has the league done to build itself up? Their league SOS out of conference is 12th. They simply have done nothing to compensate for their dead weight. Contrast that with the Big East. Out of conference SOS for the BE is #1.

That's the difference between the 2 leagues and that's why people get their backs up when you try to put then AAC on par with the Big East. It's not a league that was built for basketball. It just happens to have a few good basketball schools in the mix, but that was just dumb luck.

no, Steve Lavin on here used the word collapse...

One thing to remember is they did gerrymander the schedule a bit, where the teams aren't playing 10 games against those bottom 5 teams. So especially with those playing vs Tulane- only 6 games much worse than the Big East really.

The question for that league will be can those 5 schools improve quick enough with the extra exposure they're getting(well all but USF).

OOC SOS- the gap between #8 Big Ten and #12 Pac 12 projected in RPI forecast is .5116 and .5103. AAC is 11 at .5107. OOC SOS is more what the Big East, SEC, and the SWAC did than anyone else didn't do. (yes, I said the SWAC).

The AAC might not be a league built for basketball, but it's still a good basketball league. Definitely with the A10 the 2 best non F5/BE basketball leagues.
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Re: Wed Feb 18th - 2G - XU-Cinc, PC-DePaul...

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Re: Wed Feb 18th - 2G - XU-Cinc, PC-DePaul...

Postby Bill Marsh » Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:01 pm

Top Half of the AAC # of games vs Bottom Half:

9 - Memphis
9 - Temple
9 - Cincinnati
9 - Tulsa
8 - SMU
8 - UConn
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Re: Wed Feb 18th - 2G - XU-Cinc, PC-DePaul...

Postby stever20 » Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:27 pm

Bill Marsh wrote:Top Half of the AAC # of games vs Bottom Half:

9 - Memphis
9 - Temple
9 - Cincinnati
9 - Tulsa
8 - SMU
8 - UConn


The Tulane games aren't that much different now than us playing Creighton or DePaul(DePaul now is at 146- and could wind up being worse than 180.).

So Memphis 7, Temple 7, Cincy 7, Tulsa 7, SMU 7, and UConn 6.
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Re: Wed Feb 18th - 2G - XU-Cinc, PC-DePaul...

Postby BEX » Fri Feb 20, 2015 11:15 pm

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Re: Wed Feb 18th - 2G - XU-Cinc, PC-DePaul...

Postby Steve Lavin » Sat Feb 21, 2015 12:34 am

Bill Marsh makes a great point. Their bottom 5 teams are automatic losses to the top 5 teams. They are essentially days off for the better teams. In the Big East every game is a dog fight and there are rarely blowouts. From 1-10 anyone can get beat any given day. That's why it's so much more impressive when a team like Nova is still top 10 even in a very competitive conference top to bottom. A team like SJU would probably be ranked still in the AAC waiting to see our tourney seeding. Same for SHU.

They have 5 150 and above RPI teams (and most are well into the 200's). We have what…1? That should end the debate right there. The AAC will have to rely on cupcake wins to inflate their records and get chances for at large bids. The Big East teams that make the tourney are arguably top 2 or 3 most battle tested in the country in terms of conference. Every game is a grind. Every game is brutal.

In name brand, prestige, tourney appearances, relevance, history, RPI, and top to bottom strength, there is no argument to be made in favor of the AAC vs. the Big East.
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Re: Wed Feb 18th - 2G - XU-Cinc, PC-DePaul...

Postby Bill Marsh » Sat Feb 21, 2015 5:38 am

stever20 wrote:
Bill Marsh wrote:Top Half of the AAC # of games vs Bottom Half:

9 - Memphis
9 - Temple
9 - Cincinnati
9 - Tulsa
8 - SMU
8 - UConn


The Tulane games aren't that much different now than us playing Creighton or DePaul(DePaul now is at 146- and could wind up being worse than 180.).

So Memphis 7, Temple 7, Cincy 7, Tulsa 7, SMU 7, and UConn 6.


Steve, you're nitpicking again.

1. Without debating the point, we can agree that the better teams in the American have 2 games with a Tulane team that is a lesser version of the worst team in the Big East.

2. Even if we disregard them, we're talking about almost 40% (7 of 18) of the games on the schedule against teams with a 200+ RPI. That represents an enormous difference between the 2 leagues.

3. As a conference, the American has a significantly worse OOC schedule than the Big East, meaning that their teams' schedules are padded even further with inferior competition. The fact that SE Oklahoma State is even on Tulsa's schedule speaks volumes about the competition gap between the 2 leagues.

4. The American is a conference that was put together to meet football needs. Basketball needs were an afterthought. That's a big reason why the C7 left in the first place. Schools like ECU draw 50,000 for football but can't draw 5,000 to a basketball game. Too many teams in the AAC just don't care about basketball - especially these days when everything revolves around football. It shows in so many ways. In contrast, the Big East is a basketball-only league. That's where the money goes for facilities, coaches, and everything else. That's what their fans care about. It's their only priority. That too shows.
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Re: Wed Feb 18th - 2G - XU-Cinc, PC-DePaul...

Postby stever20 » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:31 am

Bill Marsh wrote:
stever20 wrote:
Bill Marsh wrote:Top Half of the AAC # of games vs Bottom Half:

9 - Memphis
9 - Temple
9 - Cincinnati
9 - Tulsa
8 - SMU
8 - UConn


The Tulane games aren't that much different now than us playing Creighton or DePaul(DePaul now is at 146- and could wind up being worse than 180.).

So Memphis 7, Temple 7, Cincy 7, Tulsa 7, SMU 7, and UConn 6.


Steve, you're nitpicking again.

1. Without debating the point, we can agree that the better teams in the American have 2 games with a Tulane team that is a lesser version of the worst team in the Big East.

2. Even if we disregard them, we're talking about almost 40% (7 of 18) of the games on the schedule against teams with a 200+ RPI. That represents an enormous difference between the 2 leagues.

3. As a conference, the American has a significantly worse OOC schedule than the Big East, meaning that their teams' schedules are padded even further with inferior competition. The fact that SE Oklahoma State is even on Tulsa's schedule speaks volumes about the competition gap between the 2 leagues.

4. The American is a conference that was put together to meet football needs. Basketball needs were an afterthought. That's a big reason why the C7 left in the first place. Schools like ECU draw 50,000 for football but can't draw 5,000 to a basketball game. Too many teams in the AAC just don't care about basketball - especially these days when everything revolves around football. It shows in so many ways. In contrast, the Big East is a basketball-only league. That's where the money goes for facilities, coaches, and everything else. That's what their fans care about. It's their only priority. That too shows.

Everything you say is true- however, while that means the AAC is worse than the Big East, it still doesn't mean that the AAC isn't a good basketball league. Folks on here want to make the AAC out to be worse than the MAAC. That's just not the case at all. It's right there with the A10 for the best non F5/BE league in the country.

And folks on here want to make it an either or thing with them. Like I'm saying that if Xavier or St John's falters that the AAC would get that spot. That's not what I'm saying. If it's not the AAC, it'll be someone else. What I'm saying is if Xavier is 18-14 or St John's is 18-13, they have little chance to make the tourney. It's not automatically going to be the AAC that benefits from that. It could be a Purdue, a Miami, a Pitt, a Boise St, a Stanford, etc. The fact is, it'll be someone.
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