The Holy Land of Hoops

Villanova listed as a lock. The other 6 Big East contenders listed with "Work left to do." Fair enough I suppose with half the conference schedule still to play, but I'd have given Butler and Georgetown "should be in" status. Neither need any more big "resume wins" in my opinion. Just avoid any further bad losses and they're in.

Edit: Link: http://sports.espn.go.com/mens-college- ... ubblewatch

Hall2012 wrote:Villanova listed as a lock. The other 6 Big East contenders listed with "Work left to do." Fair enough I suppose with half the conference schedule still to play, but I'd have given Butler and Georgetown "should be in" status. Neither need any more big "resume wins" in my opinion. Just avoid any further bad losses and they're in.

You can add Xavier and Providence to that list. And Seton Hall is awfully close.

Bill Marsh wrote:

Hall2012 wrote:Villanova listed as a lock. The other 6 Big East contenders listed with "Work left to do." Fair enough I suppose with half the conference schedule still to play, but I'd have given Butler and Georgetown "should be in" status. Neither need any more big "resume wins" in my opinion. Just avoid any further bad losses and they're in.

You can add Xavier and Providence to that list. And Seton Hall is awfully close.

Xavier not because of the fact they have already 8 losses and still have 6 tough games left. They lose even 4 of those, they get questionable. Providence even same thing- 6 losses, with 7 of 9 games left being tough ones. They still need to take care of the 2 easy games and then win 2 of the other 7 games. So that's work left to do.

Bill Marsh wrote:

Hall2012 wrote:Villanova listed as a lock. The other 6 Big East contenders listed with "Work left to do." Fair enough I suppose with half the conference schedule still to play, but I'd have given Butler and Georgetown "should be in" status. Neither need any more big "resume wins" in my opinion. Just avoid any further bad losses and they're in.

You can add Xavier and Providence to that list. And Seton Hall is awfully close.

I tend to agree, but I'm okay with leaving them at "work left to do" for now because of multiple bad losses. That and with the strength of the Big East, everyone really does still have work to do (except Nova, they can practically lose out and still get in). You relax just a little bit and you can easily find yourself in an extended losing streak.

That being said, I expect them all to take care of business and reach the dance.

The funny thing is I'm fine with work to do if it's equal across conferences, and for the most part it is, but looking at the B12 they have several in the should be in category who's resume's are no better than the BE teams'.

Iowa St RPI 12 SOS 22
Baylor RPI 15 SOS 15
WV RPI 20 SOS 87
Oklahoma RPI 24 SOS 18

Butler RPI 17 SOS 16
Georgetown RPI 19 SOS 8
Providence RPI 23 SOS 26
Xavier RPI 25 SOS 13

How are the first 4 Should be in but our 4 work left to do?

hoyahooligan wrote:The funny thing is I'm fine with work to do if it's equal across conferences, and for the most part it is, but looking at the B12 they have several in the should be in category who's resume's are no better than the BE teams'.

Iowa St RPI 12 SOS 22
Baylor RPI 15 SOS 15
WV RPI 20 SOS 87
Oklahoma RPI 24 SOS 18

Butler RPI 17 SOS 16
Georgetown RPI 19 SOS 8
Providence RPI 23 SOS 26
Xavier RPI 25 SOS 13

How are the first 4 Should be in but our 4 work left to do?

part of it is records-
Iowa St 16-5
Baylor 15-5
WV 18-3
Oklahoma at 14-7 most questionable.

No team with 8 losses like Xavier has is going to be should be in category at this point. Especially with the road/neutral record that Xavier has right now(3-8). Xavier absolutely has work to do still.

Bill Marsh wrote:

Hall2012 wrote:Villanova listed as a lock. The other 6 Big East contenders listed with "Work left to do." Fair enough I suppose with half the conference schedule still to play, but I'd have given Butler and Georgetown "should be in" status. Neither need any more big "resume wins" in my opinion. Just avoid any further bad losses and they're in.

You can add Xavier and Providence to that list. And Seton Hall is awfully close.

I think if this was the committee of 15 years ago, you probably would be right. But the fact is a team like Xavier with 8 losses already- they could easily finish like 18-13 and lose in the 1st rd of the tourney. 18-14 teams just don't make the tourney any more. The committee has changed that part probably moreso than anything else that we've seen in the last 10-15 years.

Also of note here: 57 (assuming I counted correctly) teams are listed here as being in play for at-large NCAA Tournament bids- of which there are 36 slots.

-Assuming no bid thieves from major conferences, 9 of the 57 teams (one for each conference highlighted) can be slotted into automatic bid spots, leaving 48 teams competing for 36 spots.

- If Gonzaga wins the WCC tournament and either Wichita State or Northern Iowa wins the Valley tournament, we're now down to 46 teams for 36 at large bids. The number can shrink to as low at 44 competing teams if Old Dominion and BYU take their respective conference tournaments as well.

So in an ideal situation with no bid thieves and no currently unlisted teams rising up into the at-large conversation, only 8 of the 57 teams listed on "bubble watch" will be left out of the tournament. More realistically, that number will probably be around 10, but those are still pretty good odds for all of the teams listed.

Hall2012 wrote:- If Gonzaga wins the WCC tournament and either Wichita State or Northern Iowa wins the Valley tournament, we're now down to 46 teams for 36 at large bids. The number can shrink to as low at 44 competing teams if Old Dominion and BYU take their respective conference tournaments as well.

If you find a way to get Gonzaga and BYU to both win their conference tournament this year, you should also be able to find a way to get all 10 Big East teams into the dance.

gmoser1210 wrote:

Hall2012 wrote:- If Gonzaga wins the WCC tournament and either Wichita State or Northern Iowa wins the Valley tournament, we're now down to 46 teams for 36 at large bids. The number can shrink to as low at 44 competing teams if Old Dominion and BYU take their respective conference tournaments as well.

If you find a way to get Gonzaga and BYU to both win their conference tournament this year, you should also be able to find a way to get all 10 Big East teams into the dance.

Yup, that was dumb. Completely forgot BYU moved to the WCC. Doesn't change much though, just 1 less opportunity for a bid thief.