Big East Tournament bracket (2-1-15)

[stever20]

Figured it was a good time to start the weekly look at the conference tournament picture. I will try to post these weekly every Sunday.

Using RPI Forecast to project the Final rankings, here's another way to look at it. (I hope I have the tie breaker formula right.)

8. DePaul
9. Marquette > 1. Villanova

................. 4. Seton Hall
.................. 5. Xavier

.................. 3. Georgetown
.................. 6. Providence

7. St. John's >> 2. Butler
10. Creighton

Looking RPI forecast has Butler and Georgetown tied. Georgetown has a win over Butler already and a win also over Nova. So for Butler to be seeded ahead of Georgetown, they have to finish a game up on them.

A lot left to be decided in the 4-6 range where 3 way tie at 10-8. SH and PC haven't played at all yet, and a HUGE game left is PC vs X.

[Bill Marsh]

Steve, tie breakers will be decided by what has been accomplished by season' send, not by what has occurred so far. Vutler is favored in it's remaining games over Villanova and Georgetown, so that would make them even with Georgetown at season' send for those 2 tie breakers. I used projected season' send results for tie breakers, not results to date.

[XUFan09]

Don't want any part of Xavier.

Aw, I'm a big fan of playing Georgetown!

[stever20]

ken pom's projected tourney after tonight
1 Nova 14-4 vs 8 St John's 7-11/ 9 Marquette 5-13
4/5 Providence vs Xavier(both 10-8)
2 Georgetown 12-6 vs 7 DePaul 8-10/10 Creighton 3-15
3 Butler 12-6 vs 6 Seton Hall 9-9

think Seton Hall would be very much in jeopardy with a loss. Real interesting that they now have St John's behind DePaul- and also if DePaul got 1 more win- they would actually be 6th ahead of Seton Hall.

[Bill Marsh]

ken pom's projected tourney after tonight
1 Nova 14-4 vs 8 St John's 7-11/ 9 Marquette 5-13
4/5 Providence vs Xavier(both 10-8)
2 Georgetown 12-6 vs 7 DePaul 8-10/10 Creighton 3-15
3 Butler 12-6 vs 6 Seton Hall 9-9

think Seton Hall would be very much in jeopardy with a loss. Real interesting that they now have St John's behind DePaul- and also if DePaul got 1 more win- they would actually be 6th ahead of Seton Hall.

Ken Pom often leaves me shaking my head, and this is one more time. How does he resolve the tie between Georgetown and Butler in favor of Georgetown? As far as I can see, Butler's road win over Seton Hall stands as the tie breaker right now.

[hoyahooligan]

ken pom's projected tourney after tonight
1 Nova 14-4 vs 8 St John's 7-11/ 9 Marquette 5-13
4/5 Providence vs Xavier(both 10-8)
2 Georgetown 12-6 vs 7 DePaul 8-10/10 Creighton 3-15
3 Butler 12-6 vs 6 Seton Hall 9-9

think Seton Hall would be very much in jeopardy with a loss. Real interesting that they now have St John's behind DePaul- and also if DePaul got 1 more win- they would actually be 6th ahead of Seton Hall.

Ken Pom often leaves me shaking my head, and this is one more time. How does he resolve the tie between Georgetown and Butler in favor of Georgetown? As far as I can see, Butler's road win over Seton Hall stands as the tie breaker right now.

How do you figure that? As of today the tie breaker would be head to head which Georgetown owns and after that it would be record vs. the top team Nova which Georgetown would currently win.

[Edrick]

Because neither of those things are the case. Bill Marsh is saying that if you expound on his projections, Georgetown will have neither of those things because Butler will have beaten Georgetown and Villanova in the second game(s), both at home, in which they'll be favored.

Doing a projection, includes projecting everything, not just somethings and as-of-now on other things.

[stever20]

Because neither of those things are the case. Bill Marsh is saying that if you expound on his projections, Georgetown will have neither of those things because Butler will have beaten Georgetown and Villanova in the second game(s), both at home, in which they'll be favored.

Doing a projection, includes projecting everything, not just somethings and as-of-now on other things.

Actually right now, it would be Georgetown as he doesn't have Butler beating Nova. So Georgetown would have the tiebreaker end of season.

[Bill Marsh]

Figured it was a good time to start the weekly look at the conference tournament picture. I will try to post these weekly every Sunday.

Using RPI Forecast to project the Final rankings, here's another way to look at it. (I hope I have the tie breaker formula right.)

8. DePaul
9. Marquette > 1. Villanova

................. 4. Seton Hall
.................. 5. Xavier

.................. 3. Georgetown
.................. 6. Providence

7. St. John's >> 2. Butler
10. Creighton

Looking RPI forecast has Butler and Georgetown tied. Georgetown has a win over Butler already and a win also over Nova. So for Butler to be seeded ahead of Georgetown, they have to finish a game up on them.

A lot left to be decided in the 4-6 range where 3 way tie at 10-8. SH and PC haven't played at all yet, and a HUGE game left is PC vs X.

I fail to see the relevance of Georgetown's wins over Villanova and Butler in January in terms of tie breakers. Georgetown did what it was supposed to do and defended home court. Second time around they're expected to lose both of those games on the road. Ties won't be broken based on what's happened to date, they will be broken based on what's been accomplished at season' send.

So, sitting here on February 4 and projecting ahead, all we can talk about is what things might look like if the rest of the season plays out as expected.

As you pointed out earlier, last night's upset loss leaves Seton Hall projected at 9-9, not 10-8. You're also correct that a lot is left to be decided. I thought we were looking ahead to match ups just for fun, so I provided an alternate scenario to the OP's scenario based on projections. Just for fun. Other than having some fun with it, there really is no point in talking about tournament match ups right now because there's absolutely no way to know now exactly what they'll look like in a month. As you say, a lot's left to be decided.

[Bill Marsh]

ken pom's projected tourney after tonight
1 Nova 14-4 vs 8 St John's 7-11/ 9 Marquette 5-13
4/5 Providence vs Xavier(both 10-8)
2 Georgetown 12-6 vs 7 DePaul 8-10/10 Creighton 3-15
3 Butler 12-6 vs 6 Seton Hall 9-9

think Seton Hall would be very much in jeopardy with a loss. Real interesting that they now have St John's behind DePaul- and also if DePaul got 1 more win- they would actually be 6th ahead of Seton Hall.

Ken Pom often leaves me shaking my head, and this is one more time. How does he resolve the tie between Georgetown and Butler in favor of Georgetown? As far as I can see, Butler's road win over Seton Hall stands as the tie breaker right now.

How do you figure that? As of today the tie breaker would be head to head which Georgetown owns and after that it would be record vs. the top team Nova which Georgetown would currently win.

I figure that because ties aren't broken by results up to the first week in February. Georgetown owns wins over Butler and Villanova because they had home court advantage and did what they were supposed to do in those to games. In the return match ups, they'll be expected to lose both of those games. Butler owns a road win over Seton Hall, a game they were not expected to win. All we can do now is assume that things will play out as expected from here on. If that happens, Butler's win over The Hall will be the tie breaker.