The Holy Land of Hoops

looking at the standings in Ken Pom projections- in light of the tiebreakers....
1 Villanova 15-3
2 Butler 11-7
3-5 tie between Seton Hall, Xavier, St John's 10-8.
so far- Seton Hall 1-1 Xavier 1-0, St John's 0-1. What could wind up being huge is Seton Hall's win over Nova. If Nova finishes 17-1, Seton Hall would have any 1-1 tiebreaker in the conference.
6-7 tie between Providence and Georgetown 9-9
Providence beat Georgetown earlier. Also, Providence has a win in pocket vs 2nd seed Butler which could be huge.
8 Marquette 6-12
9 DePaul 5-13
10 Creighton 4-14

So right now the BET would look like with the projection:
2 Butler vs 7 Georgetown/10 Creighton
3 Xavier vs 6 Providence
1 Villanova vs 8 Marquette/9 DePaul.
4 Seton Hall vs 5 St John's

Think the 2 big wins from the early looks of things are the Seton Hall win over Nova obviously and the PC win over Butler. Absent head to head sweeps, that's going to be a major criteria.

Way to early to look at this stuff. Most teams have only played about 4 games in an 18 game conference schedule.

Plus they're projections. Marquette is 2-2, probably should be 3-1, and really wasn't that far off from 4-0 as they didn't exactly roll over for Georgetown.

Projecting MU at 6-12 means they're going to go 4-10 the rest of the way which seems a tad pessimistic. They're certainly not as good as past vintages this year, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to cobble together 5 wins out of their next 14 games.

notkirkcameron wrote:Plus they're projections. Marquette is 2-2, probably should be 3-1, and really wasn't that far off from 4-0 as they didn't exactly roll over for Georgetown.

Projecting MU at 6-12 means they're going to go 4-10 the rest of the way which seems a tad pessimistic. They're certainly not as good as past vintages this year, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to cobble together 5 wins out of their next 14 games.

considering Marquette has already played Creighton and DePaul once- and Nova and Butler none- plus had PC game at home- schedule will get much tougher for Marquette. 6 wins seems very reasonable for them- if not even a bit optimistic. Right now 1st 4 games all against teams projected to be 6-10. So 10 games left with teams projected to be 1-5.

notkirkcameron wrote:Plus they're projections. Marquette is 2-2, probably should be 3-1, and really wasn't that far off from 4-0 as they didn't exactly roll over for Georgetown.

Projecting MU at 6-12 means they're going to go 4-10 the rest of the way which seems a tad pessimistic. They're certainly not as good as past vintages this year, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to cobble together 5 wins out of their next 14 games.

What do you expect from stever besides pessimism?

NJRedman wrote:

notkirkcameron wrote:Plus they're projections. Marquette is 2-2, probably should be 3-1, and really wasn't that far off from 4-0 as they didn't exactly roll over for Georgetown.

Projecting MU at 6-12 means they're going to go 4-10 the rest of the way which seems a tad pessimistic. They're certainly not as good as past vintages this year, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to cobble together 5 wins out of their next 14 games.

What do you expect from stever besides pessimism?

You do understand that it's a projection from a computer. And it's a reasonable one at that. They've gone 2-2 vs the other teams 6-10. Probably best case they go 2-2 against them the 2nd time around, then 2 wins against the top 5 teams.

NJRedman wrote:

notkirkcameron wrote:Plus they're projections. Marquette is 2-2, probably should be 3-1, and really wasn't that far off from 4-0 as they didn't exactly roll over for Georgetown.

Projecting MU at 6-12 means they're going to go 4-10 the rest of the way which seems a tad pessimistic. They're certainly not as good as past vintages this year, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to cobble together 5 wins out of their next 14 games.

What do you expect from stever besides pessimism?

I don't think this is an unreasonable or pessimistic projection at this point. We're starting to see some things that make this seem very possible. Nova does seem to be the class of the league and prob should finish 1st. I would say that Butler has separated itself a bit from the second group with 2 very impressive road wins at SJU and SHU, and have gotten @ Nova over with. The next group of 5 is probably a crap shoot and they will prob end up around 10-8, 9-9. Marq might steal a couple games here and there but are a year away. With DePaul and Creighhton you just have to go in and play the game hard or you'll get picked off. It's a competitive league no doubt.

to me, the thing that is unrealistic is that the group of Marquette, Creighton, and DePaul will win 15 games between them. They play 6 head to head games, and have gotten 2 other wins so far. I don't know that I see 7 other wins for those 3 teams. The only outside game that the 3 teams combined are actually favored in is the Providence/Creighton game this weekend. while I know they'll get a few other wins- 6 seems a bit high if Creighton can beat PC tomorrow.

DePaul 11 games left with the top 7
Marquette 12 games left with the top 7
Creighton 11 games left with the top 7

so that would be saying that those 3 teams would win 7 of their remaining 34 games with the top 7. that's pushing it.

DePaul- 2 games where they have more than a 25% chance of winning vs the top 7
Marquette- 5 games where they have more than a 25% chance of winning vs the top 7
Creighton- 5 games where they have more than a 25% chance of winning vs the top 7.
so you're telling me of these 12 games they'd win 7 of them?

Also for Marquette and Creighton- both of them have 3 of those 5 winnable other games in the next 2 weeks.

stever20 wrote:to me, the thing that is unrealistic is that the group of Marquette, Creighton, and DePaul will win 15 games between them. They play 6 head to head games, and have gotten 2 other wins so far. I don't know that I see 7 other wins for those 3 teams. The only outside game that the 3 teams combined are actually favored in is the Providence/Creighton game this weekend. while I know they'll get a few other wins- 6 seems a bit high if Creighton can beat PC tomorrow.

DePaul 11 games left with the top 7
Marquette 12 games left with the top 7
Creighton 11 games left with the top 7

so that would be saying that those 3 teams would win 7 of their remaining 34 games with the top 7. that's pushing it.

DePaul- 2 games where they have more than a 25% chance of winning vs the top 7
Marquette- 5 games where they have more than a 25% chance of winning vs the top 7
Creighton- 5 games where they have more than a 25% chance of winning vs the top 7.
so you're telling me of these 12 games they'd win 7 of them?

Also for Marquette and Creighton- both of them have 3 of those 5 winnable other games in the next 2 weeks.

And to your consistent point Stever it is better, for the greater good, that those teams don't pull the big upsets and keep teams from the tourney or from higher seeding. Now if I'm those 3 I say: "screw you, we're gonna battle every time out there" as they should. If you are a potential bubble team you have to prove you are worthy by getting at least 5 wins from games against that trio. If you don't you have no one else to blame if it costs you.