By the Numbers: Good Wins and Bad Losses

[mel ott]

Update after all games completed on 7-December-2014.

Wins that might be good (RPI 101-150)
Villanova over Michigan (#113)
DePaul over Northern Illinois (#119)
Creighton over North Carolina Central (#104)
Creighton over Nebraska (#105)
Georgetown over Florida (#130)

Bad Losses (to teams outside of the RPI top 100)
Nebraska-Omaha (#236) over Marquette
Lehigh (#186) over DePaul
Tulsa (#102) over Creighton

Always amazes me that a game can become a bad loss ( Tulsa was favored over Creighton on the road) when you are the underdog?

[gmoser1210]

Update after all games completed on 14-December-2014.

Very Good Wins (over RPI Top 50)
Villanova over VCU (#8)
Butler over North Carolina (#22)
Seton Hall over Gardner-Webb (#31)
Xavier over Alabama (#32)
Creighton over Oklahoma (#35)
Providence over Rhode Island (#42)
Providence over Yale (#43)
Seton Hall over George Washington (#47)

Good Wins (over RPI 51-100)
Seton Hall over Illinois State (#55)
Xavier over Long Beach State (#57)
Villanova over Temple (#59)
Marquette over Georgia Tech (#66)
DePaul over Stanford (#67)
Saint John's over Syracuse (#69)
Xavier over Murray State (#72)
Villanova over Illinois (#74)
Butler over Georgetown (#75)
Marquette over Tennessee (#78)
Creighton over North Carolina Central (#83)
Saint John's over Minnesota (#84)
Seton Hall over Rutgers (#89)
Villanova over Michigan (#94)
Xavier over Stephen F. Austin (#96)

Wins that might be good (RPI 101-150)
Seton Hall over Mount Saint Mary's (#107)
Butler over Northwestern (#117)
Villanova over Saint Joseph's (#127)
Villanova over La Salle (#131)
Georgetown over Florida (#132)
Georgetown over Radford (#137)
Saint John's over Fairleigh Dickinson (#139)
Creighton over Nebraska (#144)
Providence over Notre Dame (#146)

Bad Losses (to teams outside of the RPI top 100)
Nebraska-Omaha (#297) over Marquette
Brown (#166) over Providence
Lehigh (#164) over DePaul
Boston College (#138) over Providence
Ole Miss (#109) over Creighton
Tulsa (#108) over Creighton

[gmoser1210]

Update after all games completed on 18-January-2015.

Very Good Wins (over RPI Top 50)
Villanova over VCU (#4)
Seton Hall over Villanova (#5)
Butler over North Carolina (#12)
Villanova over Butler (#14)
Providence over Butler (#14)
Georgetown over Butler (#14)
Butler over Seton Hall (#17)
Xavier over Seton Hall (#17)
Marquette over Providence (#23)
Saint John's over Providence (#23)
Creighton over Oklahoma (#24)
DePaul over Stanford (#26)
Providence over Georgetown (#28)
Butler over Georgetown (#28)
Xavier over Georgetown (#28)
Villanova over Xavier (#34)
DePaul over Xavier (#34)
Butler over Xavier (#34)
Providence over Notre Dame (#39)
Villanova over Saint John's (#40)
DePaul over Saint John's (#40)
Seton Hall over Saint John's (#40)
Butler over Saint John's (#40)
Seton Hall over George Washington (#41)
Georgetown over Indiana (#44)

Good Wins (over RPI 51-100)
Marquette over Tennessee (#52)
Xavier over Alabama (#53)
Providence over Miami-FL (#55)
Villanova over Temple (#56)
Villanova over Syracuse (#57)
Saint John's over Syracuse (#57)
Xavier over Long Beach State (#61)
Saint John's over Long Beach State (#61)
Providence over Massachusetts (#63)
Villanova over Illinois (#64)
Saint John's over Saint Mary's College (#65)
Providence over Yale (#67)
Providence over Stony Brook (#69)
Georgetown over Florida (#70)
Seton Hall over Rutgers (#74)
Creighton over North Carolina Central (#81)
Providence over Rhode Island (#82)
Villanova over Michigan (#85)
Marquette over Georgia Tech (#86)
Xavier over Stephen F. Austin (#96)
Saint John's over Minnesota (#98)

Wins that might be good (RPI 101-150)
Villanova over La Salle (#101)
Seton Hall over Gardner Webb (#102)
Xavier over Murray State (#104)
Creighton over Eastern Illinois (#106)
Butler over Belmont (#108)
Seton Hall over Illinois State (#111)
Georgetown over Marquette (#112)
DePaul over Marquette (#112)
Xavier over Marquette (#112)
Creighton over Nebraska (#120)
Butler over Chattanooga (#136)
Georgetown over Charlotte (#137)
Marquette over Arizona State (#139)
Seton Hall over Mount Saint Mary's (#142)
Butler over Northwestern (#143)
Villanova over Maryland Eastern Shore (#148)
Xavier over Missouri (#149)

Bad Losses (to teams outside of the RPI top 100)
Illinois State (#111) over DePaul
Marquette (#112) over Providence
Marquette (#112) over Creighton
Auburn (#114) over Xavier
Boston College (#132) over Providence
DePaul (#169) over Xavier
DePaul (#169) over Marquette
DePaul (#169) over Saint John's
DePaul (#169) over Creighton
Lehigh (#184) over DePaul
Loyola Marymount (#233) over DePaul
Brown (#246) over Providence
Ohio (#257) over DePaul
North Texas (#270) over Creighton
Nebraska Omaha (#309) over Marquette

[gmoser1210]

By team, updated after all games completed on 1/25/2015:

#15 Butler (15-6)
Top 50 Wins
#11 - North Carolina
#13 - Georgetown
#35 - Xavier
#42 - Seton Hall
#42 - Seton Hall
Top 100 Wins
#51 - Saint John's
#94 - Belmont
Losses Outside Top 100
-none-


#139 Creighton (9-12)
Top 50 Wins
#29 - Oklahoma
Top 100 Wins
#88 - Nebraska
#89 - North Carolina Central
Losses Outside Top 100
#271 - North Texas
#135 - DePaul
#119 - Marquette


#135 DePaul (11-10)
Top 50 Wins
#31 - Stanford
#35 - Xavier
#42 - Seton Hall
Top 100 Wins
#51 - Saint John's
Losses Outside Top 100
#229 - Loyola Marymount
#191 - Ohio
#167 - Lehigh
#113 - Illinois State


#13 Georgetown (14-5)
Top 50 Wins
#6 - Villanova
#15 - Butler
#34 - Indiana
Top 100 Wins
#84 - Florida
Losses Outside Top 100
-none-


#119 Marquette (10-9)
Top 50 Wins
#20 - Providence
Top 100 Wins
#55 - Tennessee
Losses Outside Top 100
#307 - Nebraska-Omaha
#135 - DePaul


#20 Providence (15-5)
Top 50 Wins
#13 - Georgetown
#15 - Butler
#35 - Xavier
#36 - Notre Dame
#38 - Miami (FL)
Top 100 Wins
#61 - Yale
#64 - Rhode Island
#91 - Stony Brook
#71 - Massachusetts
Losses Outside Top 100
#231 - Brown
#119 - Marquette
#120 - Boston College


#51 Saint John's (12-6)
Top 50 Wins
#20 - Providence
#49 - Saint Mary's
Top 100 Wins
#60 - Long Beach State
#68 - Syracuse
#87- Minnesota
Losses Outside Top 100
#135 - DePaul


#42 Seton Hall (13-6)
Top 50 Wins
#6 - Villanova
Top 100 Wins
#51 - Saint John's
#53 - George Washington
Losses Outside Top 100
#135 - DePaul


#6 Villanova (18-2)
Top 50 Wins
#4 - Virginia Commonwealth
#15 - Butler
#35 - Xavier
Top 100 Wins
#51 - Saint John's
#54 - Temple
#58 - Illinois
#68 - Syracuse
#73 - Michigan
Losses Outside Top 100
-none-


#35 Xavier (13-7)
Top 50 Wins
#13 - Georgetown
#42 - Seton Hall
#50 - Alabama
Top 100 Wins
#60 - Long Beach State
#82 - Murray State
#85 - Stephen F. Austin
Losses Outside Top 100
#147 - Auburn
#135 - DePaul
#104 - UTEP

[gmoser1210]

Quick summary:

[*]Butler, Georgetown, and Villanova have no bad losses.
[*]Butler and Providence have the most Top 50 wins with 5 each. 4 teams are tied for 3rd with 3 Top 50 wins.
[*]Providence has the most Top 100 wins with 9 while Villanova has 8 and Butler has 7.

Arbitrary W/L point system:
Top 50 Win = +2
51-100 Win = +1
101-200 Loss = -1
201-351 Loss = -2

12 - Butler
11 - Villanova
10 - Providence
7 - Georgetown
6 - Saint John's
6 - Xavier
3 - Seton Hall
2 - DePaul
0 - Marquette
0 - Creighton

[BigmanU]

This is awesome work, Thanks!

[stever20]

I would suggest for the scale that top 25 wins should be +3 instead of +2.

Your chart though shows why St John's, Xavier, and Seton Hall(especially) are so precarious right now.

[NJRedman]

St. John's not Saint John's. The latter is a small school in Minnesota.

[gmoser1210]

By team, updated after all games completed on 2/1/2015:

#15 Butler (16-6)
Top 50 Wins
#10 North Carolina
#19 Georgetown
#26 Xavier
#36 Seton Hall
#36 Seton Hall
#48 St. John's
Top 100 Wins
-none-
Losses Outside Top 100
-none-


#143 Creighton (10-13)
Top 50 Wins
#21 Oklahoma
#48 St. John's
Top 100 Wins
#91 North Carolina Central
Losses Outside Top 100
#269 North Texas
#139 Marquette
#137 DePaul


#137 DePaul (11-12)
Top 50 Wins
#26 Xavier
#31 Stanford
#36 Seton Hall
#48 St. John's
Top 100 Wins
-none-
Losses Outside Top 100
#213 Loyola-Marymount
#204 Ohio
#176 Lehigh


#19 Georgetown (15-6)
Top 50 Wins
#6 Villanova
#15 Butler
#35 Indiana
Top 100 Wins
#57 Florida
Losses Outside Top 100
-none-


#139 Marquette (10-11)
Top 50 Wins
#23 Providence
Top 100 Wins
-none-
Losses Outside Top 100
#314 Nebraska-Omaha
#137 DePaul


#23 Providence (16-6)
Top 50 Wins
#15 Butler
#19 Georgetown
#26 Xavier
#28 Notre Dame
Top 100 Wins
#51 Massachusetts
#56 Miami (FL)
#63 Yale
#69 Rhode Island
Losses Outside Top 100
#248 Brown
#139 Marquette
#127 Boston College


#48 St. John's (13-7)
Top 50 Wins
#23 Providence
#23 Providence
Top 100 Wins
#58 Long Beach State
#67 Saint Mary's
#68 Syracuse
#89 Minnesota
Losses Outside Top 100
#137 DePaul
#143 Creighton


#36 Seton Hall (15-6)
Top 50 Wins
#6 Villanova
#26 Xavier
#48 St. John's
Top 100 Wins
#53 George Washington
#92 Illinois State
Losses Outside Top 100
#137 DePaul


#6 Villanova (19-2)
Top 50 Wins
#9 VCU
#15 Butler
#26 Xavier
#44 Temple
#48 St. John's
Top 100 Wins
#65 Illinois
#68 Syracuse
#74 Michigan
#90 La Salle
Losses Outside Top 100
-none-


#26 Xavier (14-8)
Top 50 Wins
#19 Georgetown
#19 Georgetown
#36 Seton Hall
Top 100 Wins
#58 Long Beach State
#59 Alabama
#75 Murray State
#82 Stephen F. Austin
Losses Outside Top 100
#167 Auburn
#137 DePaul

[gmoser1210]

Quick summary:

• Butler, Georgetown, and Villanova have no bad losses.
• Butler has the most Top 50 wins with 6, followed by Villanova with 5, and DePaul and Providence are tied with 4.
• Villanova has the most Top 100 wins with 9, followed by Providence with 8, and Xavier has 7.

Arbitrary W/L point system:
Top 50 Win = +2
51-100 Win = +1
101-200 Loss = -1
201-351 Loss = -2

14 - Villanova
12 - Butler
8 - Providence
8 - Xavier
7 - Georgetown
7 - Seton Hall
6 - St. John's
3 - DePaul
1 - Creighton
-1 - Marquette