SI Says 3 Dance in the NCAA

[HoosierPal]

SI's college preview hit my mailbox today. They put their NCAA tourney picks at the end. They have Villanova, Georgetown and Xavier make the dance. From the AAC, they have Memphis, SMU, Cincy, and UConn. From the A-10 they have VCU, Dayton and UMass. I think they got the four right from the AAC, but I'll add Providence from the Big East and GWashington from the A-10. Positive thoughts?

Obviously to add two to the field, two have to come off the list. For those two I don't have a clue. They gave four slots to the SEC. Either Arkansas or LSU won't make it, in my opinion, but some other SEC team may. The ACC has 8, which may be a stretch, but to pick out the bottom feeder of the 8, good luck. And 8 from the Big Ten and five for the Pac 12? So the question is, are Providence/GW better than LSU, Nebraska, Arkansas, Cincy, Miami, Pitt, Notre Dame or Utah? See how it works out. [With all the realignment, my league counts may be off.]

[FormulaX]

Well, Dickie V. got the memo. He has 2 BE teams in the tourney. Nova and GTown.

http://espn.go.com/espn/dickvitale/stor ... team-field

[billyjack]

SI's college preview hit my mailbox today. They put their NCAA tourney picks at the end. They have Villanova, Georgetown and Xavier make the dance. From the AAC, they have Memphis, SMU, Cincy, and UConn. From the A-10 they have VCU, Dayton and UMass. I think they got the four right from the AAC, but I'll add Providence from the Big East and GWashington from the A-10. Positive thoughts?

Obviously to add two to the field, two have to come off the list. For those two I don't have a clue. They gave four slots to the SEC. Either Arkansas or LSU won't make it, in my opinion, but some other SEC team may. The ACC has 8, which may be a stretch, but to pick out the bottom feeder of the 8, good luck. And 8 from the Big Ten and five for the Pac 12? So the question is, are Providence/GW better than LSU, Nebraska, Arkansas, Cincy, Miami, Pitt, Notre Dame or Utah? See how it works out. [With all the realignment, my league counts may be off.]

The Friars play Notre Dame, Florida State, Miami of Fla, and UMass.
Vitale has 10 ACC teams in.
PC could sweep those 4 very easily. The 1st two are at Mohegan Sun; Miami in Brooklyn; UMass at Dunk.
Among the biggest ooc games for the Big East.
UMass actually lost a lot via graduation from last year.
The last time we played the Irish, when we had a weaker roster, we won by 25.

[Whitefriar]

SI's college preview hit my mailbox today. They put their NCAA tourney picks at the end. They have Villanova, Georgetown and Xavier make the dance. From the AAC, they have Memphis, SMU, Cincy, and UConn. From the A-10 they have VCU, Dayton and UMass. I think they got the four right from the AAC, but I'll add Providence from the Big East and GWashington from the A-10. Positive thoughts?

Obviously to add two to the field, two have to come off the list. For those two I don't have a clue. They gave four slots to the SEC. Either Arkansas or LSU won't make it, in my opinion, but some other SEC team may. The ACC has 8, which may be a stretch, but to pick out the bottom feeder of the 8, good luck. And 8 from the Big Ten and five for the Pac 12? So the question is, are Providence/GW better than LSU, Nebraska, Arkansas, Cincy, Miami, Pitt, Notre Dame or Utah? See how it works out. [With all the realignment, my league counts may be off.]

The Friars play Notre Dame, Florida State, Miami of Fla, and UMass.
Vitale has 10 ACC teams in.
PC could sweep those 4 very easily. The 1st two are at Mohegan Sun; Miami in Brooklyn; UMass at Dunk.
Among the biggest ooc games for the Big East.
UMass actually lost a lot via graduation from last year.
The last time we played the Irish, when we had a weaker roster, we won by 25.

Umass is A10, but still big game. BC is the 4th ACC squad on the schedule with game being played at Conte Forum.

[robinreed]

Well, Dickie V. got the memo. He has 2 BE teams in the tourney. Nova and GTown.

http://espn.go.com/espn/dickvitale/stor ... team-field

Obviously only 3 in (SI) or 2 in (dick v) would be the beginning of a slippery slope to mid major which no one in this conference wants or can allow. It would reduce our viewership on FS1, reduce our perception as a conference and make everything more difficult. I believe and hope they are wrong and we get 4 in the dance. We must remember that in this case at least perception is reality to the networks and their talking heads. I am still holding out for 4 in this season. If it does not happen expansion may be called for.

[billyjack]

Well, Dickie V. got the memo. He has 2 BE teams in the tourney. Nova and GTown.

http://espn.go.com/espn/dickvitale/stor ... team-field

Obviously only 3 in (SI) or 2 in (dick v) would be the beginning of a slippery slope to mid major which no one in this conference wants or can allow. It would reduce our viewership on FS1, reduce our perception as a conference and make everything more difficult. I believe and hope they are wrong and we get 4 in the dance. We must remember that in this case at least perception is reality to the networks and their talking heads. I am still holding out for 4 in this season. If it does not happen expansion may be called for.

I think what you're talking about is "controlling the narrative"... controlling the spin... reality is either a low priority or non-existent for any group trying to push this message.

So, though no one respects Vitale's opinion anymore, ESPN and other Big East rivals can now cite that "some pundits think the Big East will only send 2 teams dancing..." The probability of only 2 teams is impossibly low, but ESPN has no credibility anymore (to anyone paying attention) and is divorced from reality.

My prediction on the other thread of 6 of us dancing has a better likelihood of happening. I'd rather have the discussion based on getting 4-5-6 teams in. ESPN wants us to discuss their scenario.

[stever20]

The chances of getting 6 in are just as low if not lower. Last year we were 2 results away from having 2 teams in- Marquette over Xavier and Creighton over Providence. The most we could have had with the BET was 5- if Georgetown had beaten DePaul and Creighton.

And while Vitale may say only 2, SI is saying only 3. And Robinreeds point is one i've made before- if we don't get 4 this year, and A10 and AAC are getting 4- at some point we may see expansion.

The problem with 10 teams is if you have a few teams unexpectedly down, it's real easy to get down to only 3 teams real fast. But at the same time, it's real hard to get your 6th place team in the tournament- as they are going to have 9 or 10 conference losses from the round robin. They have 2-3 OOC losses and all of a sudden they are a 19-12 or 18-13 type team and those teams don't make the tournament all that often any more.

[GoldenWarrior11]

The chances of getting 6 in are just as low if not lower. Last year we were 2 results away from having 2 teams in- Marquette over Xavier and Creighton over Providence. The most we could have had with the BET was 5- if Georgetown had beaten DePaul and Creighton.

And while Vitale may say only 2, SI is saying only 3. And Robinreeds point is one i've made before- if we don't get 4 this year, and A10 and AAC are getting 4- at some point we may see expansion.

The problem with 10 teams is if you have a few teams unexpectedly down, it's real easy to get down to only 3 teams real fast. But at the same time, it's real hard to get your 6th place team in the tournament- as they are going to have 9 or 10 conference losses from the round robin. They have 2-3 OOC losses and all of a sudden they are a 19-12 or 18-13 type team and those teams don't make the tournament all that often any more.

Excellent point, Stever. It is a sad reality that, if the Big East continually struggles to just get 3 or 4 teams in the tournament, expansion is a certain possibility. The goal of the conference is to be one of the top basketball conferences year-in and year-out. In my opinion, Villanova, Georgetown, St. Johns, Xavier and Marquette should all be regularly competing for a spot in the tourney each year. Marquette is hit a bump last year (and probably will again this year - sorry guys). Georgetown hit a bump last year, but they look to rebound this year. St. Johns has been hitting with recruits under Lavin, but that hasn't really translated into success in the tournament (I really hope it does). Butler took a hit last year with Stevens losing. Xavier is as consistent as they come, as with Villanova. They will both keep competing for tournament spots. I am blown away by the success Cooley had last year. He has down a phenomenal job, and I hope he is able to ride the momentum into this year.

If half the league struggles this year with OOC, it will undoubtedly be a tough March - because we will most likely be beating each other up once conference play starts. I desperately want the 10-team model to work and succeed - it's just a set-up that requires to have good teams year-in and year-out (and we haven't seen that yet).

My two cents.

[stever20]

The chances of getting 6 in are just as low if not lower. Last year we were 2 results away from having 2 teams in- Marquette over Xavier and Creighton over Providence. The most we could have had with the BET was 5- if Georgetown had beaten DePaul and Creighton.

And while Vitale may say only 2, SI is saying only 3. And Robinreeds point is one i've made before- if we don't get 4 this year, and A10 and AAC are getting 4- at some point we may see expansion.

The problem with 10 teams is if you have a few teams unexpectedly down, it's real easy to get down to only 3 teams real fast. But at the same time, it's real hard to get your 6th place team in the tournament- as they are going to have 9 or 10 conference losses from the round robin. They have 2-3 OOC losses and all of a sudden they are a 19-12 or 18-13 type team and those teams don't make the tournament all that often any more.

Excellent point, Stever. It is a sad reality that, if the Big East continually struggles to just get 3 or 4 teams in the tournament, expansion is a certain possibility. The goal of the conference is to be one of the top basketball conferences year-in and year-out. In my opinion, Villanova, Georgetown, St. Johns, Xavier and Marquette should all be regularly competing for a spot in the tourney each year. Marquette is hit a bump last year (and probably will again this year - sorry guys). Georgetown hit a bump last year, but they look to rebound this year. St. Johns has been hitting with recruits under Lavin, but that hasn't really translated into success in the tournament (I really hope it does). Butler took a hit last year with Stevens losing. Xavier is as consistent as they come, as with Villanova. They will both keep competing for tournament spots. I am blown away by the success Cooley had last year. He has down a phenomenal job, and I hope he is able to ride the momentum into this year.

If half the league struggles this year with OOC, it will undoubtedly be a tough March - because we will most likely be beating each other up once conference play starts. I desperately want the 10-team model to work and succeed - it's just a set-up that requires to have good teams year-in and year-out (and we haven't seen that yet).

My two cents.

It's not really half the league struggling with OOC. Last year- there were less than 20 teams nationwide that finished OOC play with fewer than 2 losses. So pretty much everyone is going to be 11-2 or 10-3. So 5th/6th teams with 10-8 at best or 9-9 conference records going to have some losses. Look back at last year's standings. Only Nova had fewer than 2 losses.

I think also what surprised a lot of folks last year wasn't frankly that we only got 4 in- but more so how low Xavier and Providence were- and how darn close they were to missing the tournament.

A big key this year will be the schools have increased their SOS OOC pretty big time. Now the hard part comes- actually winning those games.

One thing that will be kind of interesting to watch is if how the football committee is looking at things- looking more at your higher level wins- will permiate to basketball at all. Notre Dame is ranked only #10 because they have no top 25 wins. Where the basketball committee looking at the entire body of work would probably have them at #6 or 7 I think because of their overall good SOS.

[notkirkcameron]

It's not really half the league struggling with OOC. Last year- there were less than 20 teams nationwide that finished OOC play with fewer than 2 losses. So pretty much everyone is going to be 11-2 or 10-3. So 5th/6th teams with 10-8 at best or 9-9 conference records going to have some losses. Look back at last year's standings. Only Nova had fewer than 2 losses.

Big East Nonconference Losses Last Year

Butler: Oklahoma State*, LSU*
Creighton: San Diego State*, George Washington*
DePaul: Southern Miss, Wichita State*, Texas*, Arizona State, @Illinois State,
Georgetown: Oregon*, Northeastern, @Kansas
Marquette: Ohio State, @Arizona State, San Diego State*, @Wisconsin, New Mexico*
Providence: Maryland*, Kentucky*, @UMass
St. John's: Wisconsin*, Penn State*, Syracuse
Seton Hall: @Mercer, Oklahoma, Farleigh Dickinson, St. Peter's
Villanova: @Syracuse
Xavier: Iowa*, Tennessee*, USC*

The story is the same as always. The big teams need to win their big games (Marquette over Wisconsin, Georgetown over Kansas, etc.) and the smaller teams need to win games, period (DePaul losing to Illinois State, and Seton Hall losing to Mercer, Farleigh Dickinson, AND St. Peter's is just unacceptable).



* = Neutral Site Game