Will Big 5 split from NCAA basketball?

[DudeAnon]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... e-the-ncaa

Lots of talk about conferences on caught in the middle (Big East, MWC, A-10.)

Personally, I think we will be just fine and be able to keep up with the Power 5 regardless of the direction.

[robinreed]

I expect the split to occur eventually. When it occurs the football/basketball schools will be hurt more than the basketball schools however all non power-5 conferences will feel pain. The real question is not will we the Big East survive but rather will we prosper. I have worries about that.

A few of the coaches comments are attached. Check the article for much more information.

QUOTES THAT STOOD OUT

“I think the split is coming sooner than people think.”

“I honestly don't see how the non-Big Five will coexist with the new structure. You're already labeling them below the power five now. Let's be honest, Connecticut, Cincinnati, etc. are scrambling to get out of their current conference for a reason. They have to see the writing on the wall. Recruiting high-major kids will be very difficult for those teams that remain outside of power five.”

"Every decision the schools make is made with money in mind. So if they decide they can make more money by breaking away, they'll breakaway. And they can probably make more money by breaking away."

You've got some good schools in some conferences that are ‘power' players, so how do you pick and choose who gets to go? The ones hurt by this obviously are the AAC, MWC and Big East -- three very solid conferences who just can't, on a consistent basis, carry the load when it comes to money. It's going to be interesting, because it's going to shift everything that we currently know.”

[marquette]

I get that it will probably happen eventually, but it feels like a split only benefits half of the P5. With the split, those struggling P5 schools (think Northwestern, Boston College, Virginia Tech, etc) will have no lower level teams to get wins against in any sports. That hurts their overall athletics image, probably damages their donation rates, lowers school spirit, etc. Also, is a basketball tournament of 32 teams, with the fringe teams barely .500, really as intriguing as the current format? I don't think so. David vs Goliath plays well, Cinderella plays well, students and alumni of smaller schools show up in droves when they make a run, casual fans care. Do they really want to end that? I guess my thinking is that it makes a lot more sense to separate from the bottom 10 or so conferences than it does to go it alone, especially for the bottom half of the P5.

[Xudash]

I get that it will probably happen eventually, but it feels like a split only benefits half of the P5. With the split, those struggling P5 schools (think Northwestern, Boston College, Virginia Tech, etc) will have no lower level teams to get wins against in any sports. That hurts their overall athletics image, probably damages their donation rates, lowers school spirit, etc. Also, is a basketball tournament of 32 teams, with the fringe teams barely .500, really as intriguing as the current format? I don't think so. David vs Goliath plays well, Cinderella plays well, students and alumni of smaller schools show up in droves when they make a run, casual fans care. Do they really want to end that? I guess my thinking is that it makes a lot more sense to separate from the bottom 10 or so conferences than it does to go it alone, especially for the bottom half of the P5.

Excellent points.

I'll be more blunt about it: they could go off on their own for basketball, but I believe it would prove to be a failure, especially as compared to what the NCAA Tournament has become.

Talk about "inventory"! Cutting the tournament in half is a money killer. Then you have the eyeballs factor: for the most part, the only people watching that product would be existing students and living alumni of the P5 schools. Many non-P5 fans would simply choose not to watch it, or perhaps only watch the very late rounds of it. Many casual fans - those that enjoy the Cinderella stories, etc. - wouldn't turn it on. In short, it would be seen for what it is: a final move made about money in lieu of protecting one of the last bastions of fun, competitive collegiate sports.

So they go off on their own. The TV contract would get revised; there is no way around that. Sure, you can argue that the denominator gets revised, too, but even if Unit Values come out about the same, and probably especially if they come out the same, the damage will have been done. Why go through all of that, wrecking a great sporting event, only to settle in with the same economic outcome? Key assumption here for me: it will still be about eyeballs watching, and this club deal will not have a prayer in hell of matching the viewership of the existing show.

I believe we'll be fine as basketball schools, albeit we'll be managing our ways through the "compensation" issue. At least we have fat television revenue with which to work.

[HoosierPal]

Ten years ago, who would have thought that the P5 would take over football? We need to look ten years ahead to look at what hoops will look like, which no one can realistically do. As many have said, it is all about money. When the P5 can figure out how to take hoops off the NCAA line, they will. Really, the current 1 v 16 games only draw TV audiences from those schools involved. While we all like the underdog versus P5 games, it will not take long for those to be distant memories as they substitute the Boston College v Kentucky for Morehead State v Kentucky and the Northwestern v North Carolina for the Vermont v North Carolina. Which games will draw better TV audiences? The answer is obvious and it will be obvious to the TV gurus. With 65 teams in the P5, they have one play in game and then off you go.

There will still be Cinderella's but it will be the Virginia Tech's and Rutger's, rather than the Mercer's and Coastal Carolina's. Once the current TV contract expires, we all will wish for the old days. Ten years........

[hoyahooligan]

I think the break away will not be a clean break. It will be more like 1A and 1AA football. I think the big non power 5 conferences like the BE will remain in 1A with the power 5 but the bottom 100 or so teams will be relegated to 1AA conferences like the SWAC and Sun Belt etc. 350+ teams is far too many. Cut the bottom garbage but the rest remains. I think this is what will happen.

[BEwannabe]

“They're bluffing. They don't want to break away, especially presidents.”

This is the most accurate statement imho. There is a distinct possibility in football but there simply is not enough schools (64 or 65) to offer an attractive package (TV) from November until March. The better part of those 3 months are currently focused on games ooc.

A couple of factors at work if you have any clue about the rigors of a basketball season. You can't play 30+ games playing a top notch opponent every night so in college you have cupcakes (buy games) or if they some how manage to pull this off then the regular college season will look like NBA regular season where the players go through the motions of competing for much of the season. College coaches need time to develop players and mold their players into a playoff ready (NCAA tourney) team.

So I don;t think the majority of the coaches or presidents want to break away. Coaches like familiarity, Presidents are heads of universities not pro owners.

[Xudash]

I think the break away will not be a clean break. It will be more like 1A and 1AA football. I think the big non power 5 conferences like the BE will remain in 1A with the power 5 but the bottom 100 or so teams will be relegated to 1AA conferences like the SWAC and Sun Belt etc. 350+ teams is far too many. Cut the bottom garbage but the rest remains. I think this is what will happen.

This.

Hoosier, I don't believe it's that obvious. I accept the idea of larger fan bases when comparing, as an example, BC v. Coastal Carolina, but it will be a train wreck to the casual fan who likes it the way it is now.

The way I see the P5 looking at the money thing is that the present set-up with some number of non-football schools is the way to go; going hog wild would be a road to hell for everyone.

[GumbyDamnit!]

These University President's can't help themselves. They have no responsibility for the greater good. They are not unlike Goldman Sachs. Get your hands on the money--the rest is minor details. The problem that I see is threefold: 1). sports generates a lot of $, and college athletics is no exception; 2). football at it's highest levels generates the most and so it drives the bus; 3). decisions are made in order to maximize that football $ and anything outside of that (ie- the greater good of all college athletics) is secondary. So if it makes the most money for the P5 to become the P4 and the Big12 gets swallowed and there are 64 teams remaining (4 x 16 team leagues) then it will happen. All the other sports and schools outside those 64 will just have to deal with it (sort of like we've already started getting ourselves accustomed to doing). And if they can figure out that holding their own March tourney makes them more $, then guess what happens next. The only saving grace we have are the networks themselves. If they are writing some of those big checks, and they like March Madness as is, then they may be able to influence the future on the basketball side a little (until the Presidents figure out a way to package all sports together to their liking / benefit). I hope that does happen (help us out CBS, Fox & ESPN). Because if it doesn't I am going to pray like hell that Villanova has a plan to upgrade in FB and offer the Philly market to a conference (like the ACC) that needs that market.

We are all basketball fans/junkies so we may be living in some denial that we have a say. But when Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, Rick Pitino at Louisville and Coach K at Duke have zero say in the future of athletics at their own schools that tells you all you need to know about where hoops lies in this new landscape.

[BEwannabe]

it simply won't work in hoops, as it stands now 300+ teams you find teams frequently playing each other 3 times per season, twice in the regular season and then once in the conference tourney. Now they're going to play a 4th time in the post season? With 64 teams the risk of having multiple teams play each other 3-4 times a season will be quite likely and don't get me wrong there are some years it's a good thing for teams to play 3 times but there is rarely a chance for a 4th. My opinion though is this phenomenon will grow old in quick fashion, playing a team 3 times more years than not in college basketball will make it dullsville like MLB/NBA/NHL. The NFL has scheduling figured out and the NFL is by far the most popular sport in USA but it's football and they only play 1 game per week over 5 months. When it comes to college basketball I don't see 64 teams drawing and retaining television interest.

Not saying they won't try it but I think it will be a colossal failure. In football it has potential but there again teams playing a grueling 12 game reg season schedule and post season will suffer far more injuries than playing 5 cupcakes, 2-3 gimmes in conference, then grind thru conf and postseason playoffs. College teams aren't built that way (few NFL teams are). In the end I predict they'll go with what they know. If they break the successful model they currently have and the so called cupcakes pull back from scholarship football there will be no turning back the hands of time.