The Holy Land of Hoops

i fooled around with some numbers this morning - before RPI Forecast had updated with yesterday's results and before any Sunday games were played today. I simply looked ahead to see what would happen if conference tournament games involving teams on the bubble played according to the calk. Of course I added in today's games with the favorites winning. If you were to try it yourself, you'll probably get slightly different numbers because you will be able to use an updated RPI Forecast, but just as an exercise, it's an interesting preview of what will be happening.

What happens is that a couple of teams fall off the bubble - Nebraska and Kansas State. If they lose, Xavier also falls off the bubble. Here' the RPI Forecast projected RPI ranking for teams on the bubble to fill in those 2/3 spots:

55.2 - Providence (assuming a win over St. John's)
56.3 - Missouri
56.4 - St. Mary's
59.7 - St. John's (assuming a win over Providence)
60.7 - Kansas State
60.9 - Georgetown (assuming a win over DePaul and a loss to Villanova)
61.0 - Nebraska
62.2 - Florida State
63.0 - Xavier (assuming a loss to Marquette)
73.8 - Cal

There's no one else with a projected RPI lower than 55.2 who wouldn't already be in the tournament.

In other words, no matter what happens, The Big East gets 3 teams in. If Xavier beats Marquette, they're in, If they lose, they open up a 3rd spot and the winner of the Providence-St. John's game takes it. But it's also evident how close Georgetown is to grabbing a 4th spot. I either Missouri, St. Mary's, or Kansas State is upset, Georgetown is either right there by themselves or neck and neck with Kansas State battling for that last spot.

All of that is without a single upset in the Big East tournament. If Georgetown pulls an upset, they guarantee a 4th spot for the Big East Also all of that is without any upsets in anyone else's tournament. Upsets in other tournaments can open up more spots with Big East teams, including Xavier, on the cusp. In other words, If Xavier beats Marquette, it would take very little for the Big East to get 4 teams and not much more to get a 5th.

In the end, there's likely to be a lot of scrambling for those last few spots with a lot of teams very close together.

Bill Marsh wrote:i fooled around with some numbers this morning - before RPI Forecast had updated with yesterday's results and before any Sunday games were played today. I simply looked ahead to see what would happen if conference tournament games involving teams on the bubble played according to the calk. Of course I added in today's games with the favorites winning. If you were to try it yourself, you'll probably get slightly different numbers because you will be able to use an updated RPI Forecast, but just as an exercise, it's an interesting preview of what will be happening.

What happens is that a couple of teams fall off the bubble - Nebraska and Kansas State. If they lose, Xavier also falls off the bubble. Here' the RPI Forecast projected RPI ranking for teams on the bubble to fill in those 2/3 spots:

55.2 - Providence (assuming a win over St. John's)
56.3 - Missouri
56.4 - St. Mary's
59.7 - St. John's (assuming a win over Providence)
60.7 - Kansas State
60.9 - Georgetown (assuming a win over DePaul and a loss to Villanova)
61.0 - Nebraska
62.2 - Florida State
63.0 - Xavier (assuming a loss to Marquette)
73.8 - Cal

There's no one else with a projected RPI lower than 55.2 who wouldn't already be in the tournament.

In other words, no matter what happens, The Big East gets 3 teams in. If Xavier beats Marquette, they're in, If they lose, they open up a 3rd spot and the winner of the Providence-St. John's game takes it. But it's also evident how close Georgetown is to grabbing a 4th spot. I either Missouri, St. Mary's, or Kansas State is upset, Georgetown is either right there by themselves or neck and neck with Kansas State battling for that last spot.

All of that is without a single upset in the Big East tournament. If Georgetown pulls an upset, they guarantee a 4th spot for the Big East Also all of that is without any upsets in anyone else's tournament. Upsets in other tournaments can open up more spots with Big East teams, including Xavier, on the cusp. In other words, If Xavier beats Marquette, it would take very little for the Big East to get 4 teams and not much more to get a 5th.

You can't say that no matter what happens because you yourself said you were using chalk.

From what I see- I don't think RPI forecast is all that accurate with the conference tournaments. I mean, let's take Kansas St. They are RPI 47 right now. They aren't going to drop 11 spots losing to Iowa St, who is ranked 11 in RPI right now. That's just not realistic. Just like if St John's beats PC- taking them up from 56 to say 51, they won't fall that much by losing to Nova.

If Xavier beats Marquette we'll get 3 in easily. It would take either a PC win for a 4th spot or for St Johns or Georgetown to beat Villanova/Creighton. It would take either PC win or St John's beating Nova AND Georgetown to beat Creighton for the BE to get 5.

stever20 wrote:

Bill Marsh wrote:i fooled around with some numbers this morning - before RPI Forecast had updated with yesterday's results and before any Sunday games were played today. I simply looked ahead to see what would happen if conference tournament games involving teams on the bubble played according to the calk. Of course I added in today's games with the favorites winning. If you were to try it yourself, you'll probably get slightly different numbers because you will be able to use an updated RPI Forecast, but just as an exercise, it's an interesting preview of what will be happening.

What happens is that a couple of teams fall off the bubble - Nebraska and Kansas State. If they lose, Xavier also falls off the bubble. Here' the RPI Forecast projected RPI ranking for teams on the bubble to fill in those 2/3 spots:

55.2 - Providence (assuming a win over St. John's)
56.3 - Missouri
56.4 - St. Mary's
59.7 - St. John's (assuming a win over Providence)
60.7 - Kansas State
60.9 - Georgetown (assuming a win over DePaul and a loss to Villanova)
61.0 - Nebraska
62.2 - Florida State
63.0 - Xavier (assuming a loss to Marquette)
73.8 - Cal

There's no one else with a projected RPI lower than 55.2 who wouldn't already be in the tournament.

In other words, no matter what happens, The Big East gets 3 teams in. If Xavier beats Marquette, they're in, If they lose, they open up a 3rd spot and the winner of the Providence-St. John's game takes it. But it's also evident how close Georgetown is to grabbing a 4th spot. I either Missouri, St. Mary's, or Kansas State is upset, Georgetown is either right there by themselves or neck and neck with Kansas State battling for that last spot.

All of that is without a single upset in the Big East tournament. If Georgetown pulls an upset, they guarantee a 4th spot for the Big East Also all of that is without any upsets in anyone else's tournament. Upsets in other tournaments can open up more spots with Big East teams, including Xavier, on the cusp. In other words, If Xavier beats Marquette, it would take very little for the Big East to get 4 teams and not much more to get a 5th.

You can't say that no matter what happens because you yourself said you were using chalk.

From what I see- I don't think RPI forecast is all that accurate with the conference tournaments. I mean, let's take Kansas St. They are RPI 47 right now. They aren't going to drop 11 spots losing to Iowa St, who is ranked 11 in RPI right now. That's just not realistic. Just like if St John's beats PC- taking them up from 56 to say 51, they won't fall that much by losing to Nova.

If Xavier beats Marquette we'll get 3 in easily. It would take either a PC win for a 4th spot or for St Johns or Georgetown to beat Villanova/Creighton. It would take either PC win or St John's beating Nova AND Georgetown to beat Creighton for the BE to get 5.

Steve, why don't you do a projection and tell me what it will look like.

You're over simplifying when you limit the recalculation to simply the results of the K State - Iowa State game. Everything is constantly being recalculated as new results come in. What happens with the team you beat in November affects your RPI today. K State has an OOC RPI of 95, which is not especially strong. So all of those lower ranked teams are playing out the weakest part of their schedules in those lower ranked conferences and all of those games have an impact.

You're also ignoring the fact that teams in the 40's and 50's are packed very tightly together. A small change can in fact change someone's ranking ten spots. For example, K State's RPI that has them ranked #47 is .5839, 4 spots lower at #51 is Minnesota (.5806) with a miniscule difference of .0033, 4 spots below them is Cal at .5746, which is a difference of only 0.0093 from K State.

Finally, wins and losses matter a lot in RPI. That's the point of the whole system. The NCAA chose not to go with traditional power rating systems, which calculate point spreads into their formulas, because they didn't want teams running up scores in order to secure a better ranking. They wanted wins and losses to be what mattered. So when a team loses a game and someone else wins, it matters - especially in the part of the rankings where teams are packed together tightly in the first place.

As for going with chalk, if it doesn't go with chalk, that's only going to help the Big East because the conference has one good team after another in line. It doesn't matter whether PC or St. John's wins. A win will put one of them in position to move up. for example in a conference like the AAC, if SMU loses to Houston, they drop to 60.6 and that opens another spot. In conferences like the Big ten and Pac 12, where so many teams are candidates, if there are upsets, some one else is likely to drop out of contention, e.g. Iowa or Minnesota. I'm sure you can come up with a scenario that hurts the Big East, but largely they are helped by upsets.

best case scenario is a Xavier win vs MU. Of the bubble teams X and Providence have fewer warts. Georgwtown warts conf record and road record, Johnnies vs teams under 100 (I think), once its updated later tonight I'll post the link. But Xavier losing will not be a good scenario. You're right but not saying it, someone has to win games @ MSG but it will have to be the right teams and then they'll neeed help across USA. The last few 4-5 spots has 15 close teams per Jerry Palm.

stever20 wrote:

Bill Marsh wrote:i fooled around with some numbers this morning - before RPI Forecast had updated with yesterday's results and before any Sunday games were played today. I simply looked ahead to see what would happen if conference tournament games involving teams on the bubble played according to the calk. Of course I added in today's games with the favorites winning. If you were to try it yourself, you'll probably get slightly different numbers because you will be able to use an updated RPI Forecast, but just as an exercise, it's an interesting preview of what will be happening.

What happens is that a couple of teams fall off the bubble - Nebraska and Kansas State. If they lose, Xavier also falls off the bubble. Here' the RPI Forecast projected RPI ranking for teams on the bubble to fill in those 2/3 spots:

55.2 - Providence (assuming a win over St. John's)
56.3 - Missouri
56.4 - St. Mary's
59.7 - St. John's (assuming a win over Providence)
60.7 - Kansas State
60.9 - Georgetown (assuming a win over DePaul and a loss to Villanova)
61.0 - Nebraska
62.2 - Florida State
63.0 - Xavier (assuming a loss to Marquette)
73.8 - Cal

There's no one else with a projected RPI lower than 55.2 who wouldn't already be in the tournament.

In other words, no matter what happens, The Big East gets 3 teams in. If Xavier beats Marquette, they're in, If they lose, they open up a 3rd spot and the winner of the Providence-St. John's game takes it. But it's also evident how close Georgetown is to grabbing a 4th spot. I either Missouri, St. Mary's, or Kansas State is upset, Georgetown is either right there by themselves or neck and neck with Kansas State battling for that last spot.

All of that is without a single upset in the Big East tournament. If Georgetown pulls an upset, they guarantee a 4th spot for the Big East Also all of that is without any upsets in anyone else's tournament. Upsets in other tournaments can open up more spots with Big East teams, including Xavier, on the cusp. In other words, If Xavier beats Marquette, it would take very little for the Big East to get 4 teams and not much more to get a 5th.

You can't say that no matter what happens because you yourself said you were using chalk.

From what I see- I don't think RPI forecast is all that accurate with the conference tournaments. I mean, let's take Kansas St. They are RPI 47 right now. They aren't going to drop 11 spots losing to Iowa St, who is ranked 11 in RPI right now. That's just not realistic. Just like if St John's beats PC- taking them up from 56 to say 51, they won't fall that much by losing to Nova.

If Xavier beats Marquette we'll get 3 in easily. It would take either a PC win for a 4th spot or for St Johns or Georgetown to beat Villanova/Creighton. It would take either PC win or St John's beating Nova AND Georgetown to beat Creighton for the BE to get 5.

BTW, Steve, in the scenario I listed, K state does not fall 11 spots. There are 51 teams getting auto bids + at-large. With Nebraska and K State falling off the bubble, that leaves 49. In front of K State in the revised ratings are:

50. PC
51. Missouri
52. St.Mary's
53. K State

OR

50. Missouri
51. St. Mary's
52. St. John's
53. K State

The list is EITHER Providence OR St. John's because one has to lose while the other wins. In either scenario, K state falls 6 spots from #47 to #53. That's certainly plausible with a loss of any kind.

BEwannabe wrote:best case scenario is a Xavier win vs MU. Of the bubble teams X and Providence have fewer warts. Georgwtown warts conf record and road record, Johnnies vs teams under 100 (I think), once its updated later tonight I'll post the link. But Xavier losing will not be a good scenario. You're right but not saying it, someone has to win games @ MSG but it will have to be the right teams and then they'll neeed help across USA. The last few 4-5 spots has 15 close teams per Jerry Palm.

Exactly.

Best case scenario would involve Villanova and Creighton being upset while 2 other teams run to the finals. I only played out what would happen if games go as expected. I played out both scenarios for PC and SJU because that should be a close game that could go either way.

While Villanova and Creighton would suffer a little in the seedings if they were upset, it wouldn't be by much because it's still only one loss. But if St. John's beat Georgetown in the conference finals, for example, it would be a huge boost for both of them because each of them would have 3 more wins. And frankly that's a scenario that could very definitely happen without much of a reach. Bot teams have the talent to do that.

Love the Big East and I want as many as possible in. BUT, not as much as I want Creighton as a 2 or 3 seed. I really want to avoid the 4 or 5. So, if that means one of the bubble teams has to lose to CU and go to the NIT, well sorry about that.

I agree with your point, cu blujs. While we all want the conference to thrive, my first concern is that St. John's gets in. After that, I'll worry about the number of bids the Big East gets.

Bill Marsh wrote:

BEwannabe wrote:best case scenario is a Xavier win vs MU. Of the bubble teams X and Providence have fewer warts. Georgwtown warts conf record and road record, Johnnies vs teams under 100 (I think), once its updated later tonight I'll post the link. But Xavier losing will not be a good scenario. You're right but not saying it, someone has to win games @ MSG but it will have to be the right teams and then they'll neeed help across USA. The last few 4-5 spots has 15 close teams per Jerry Palm.

Exactly.

Best case scenario would involve Villanova and Creighton being upset while 2 other teams run to the finals. I only played out what would happen if games go as expected. I played out both scenarios for PC and SJU because that should be a close game that could go either way.

While Villanova and Creighton would suffer a little in the seedings if they were upset, it wouldn't be by much because it's still only one loss. But if St. John's beat Georgetown in the conference finals, for example, it would be a huge boost for both of them because each of them would have 3 more wins. And frankly that's a scenario that could very definitely happen without much of a reach. Bot teams have the talent to do that.

I think it is a lot to ask G'town to win 3 games in 3 nights with their depth. But their backcourt is good enough to beat anyone when they play well.

Bill Marsh wrote:

stever20 wrote:

Bill Marsh wrote:i fooled around with some numbers this morning - before RPI Forecast had updated with yesterday's results and before any Sunday games were played today. I simply looked ahead to see what would happen if conference tournament games involving teams on the bubble played according to the calk. Of course I added in today's games with the favorites winning. If you were to try it yourself, you'll probably get slightly different numbers because you will be able to use an updated RPI Forecast, but just as an exercise, it's an interesting preview of what will be happening.

What happens is that a couple of teams fall off the bubble - Nebraska and Kansas State. If they lose, Xavier also falls off the bubble. Here' the RPI Forecast projected RPI ranking for teams on the bubble to fill in those 2/3 spots:

55.2 - Providence (assuming a win over St. John's)
56.3 - Missouri
56.4 - St. Mary's
59.7 - St. John's (assuming a win over Providence)
60.7 - Kansas State
60.9 - Georgetown (assuming a win over DePaul and a loss to Villanova)
61.0 - Nebraska
62.2 - Florida State
63.0 - Xavier (assuming a loss to Marquette)
73.8 - Cal

There's no one else with a projected RPI lower than 55.2 who wouldn't already be in the tournament.

In other words, no matter what happens, The Big East gets 3 teams in. If Xavier beats Marquette, they're in, If they lose, they open up a 3rd spot and the winner of the Providence-St. John's game takes it. But it's also evident how close Georgetown is to grabbing a 4th spot. I either Missouri, St. Mary's, or Kansas State is upset, Georgetown is either right there by themselves or neck and neck with Kansas State battling for that last spot.

All of that is without a single upset in the Big East tournament. If Georgetown pulls an upset, they guarantee a 4th spot for the Big East Also all of that is without any upsets in anyone else's tournament. Upsets in other tournaments can open up more spots with Big East teams, including Xavier, on the cusp. In other words, If Xavier beats Marquette, it would take very little for the Big East to get 4 teams and not much more to get a 5th.

You can't say that no matter what happens because you yourself said you were using chalk.

From what I see- I don't think RPI forecast is all that accurate with the conference tournaments. I mean, let's take Kansas St. They are RPI 47 right now. They aren't going to drop 11 spots losing to Iowa St, who is ranked 11 in RPI right now. That's just not realistic. Just like if St John's beats PC- taking them up from 56 to say 51, they won't fall that much by losing to Nova.

If Xavier beats Marquette we'll get 3 in easily. It would take either a PC win for a 4th spot or for St Johns or Georgetown to beat Villanova/Creighton. It would take either PC win or St John's beating Nova AND Georgetown to beat Creighton for the BE to get 5.

Steve, why don't you do a projection and tell me what it will look like.

You're over simplifying when you limit the recalculation to simply the results of the K State - Iowa State game. Everything is constantly being recalculated as new results come in. What happens with the team you beat in November affects your RPI today. K State has an OOC RPI of 95, which is not especially strong. So all of those lower ranked teams are playing out the weakest part of their schedules in those lower ranked conferences and all of those games have an impact.

You're also ignoring the fact that teams in the 40's and 50's are packed very tightly together. A small change can in fact change someone's ranking ten spots. For example, K State's RPI that has them ranked #47 is .5839, 4 spots lower at #51 is Minnesota (.5806) with a miniscule difference of .0033, 4 spots below them is Cal at .5746, which is a difference of only 0.0093 from K State.

Finally, wins and losses matter a lot in RPI. That's the point of the whole system. The NCAA chose not to go with traditional power rating systems, which calculate point spreads into their formulas, because they didn't want teams running up scores in order to secure a better ranking. They wanted wins and losses to be what mattered. So when a team loses a game and someone else wins, it matters - especially in the part of the rankings where teams are packed together tightly in the first place.

As for going with chalk, if it doesn't go with chalk, that's only going to help the Big East because the conference has one good team after another in line. It doesn't matter whether PC or St. John's wins. A win will put one of them in position to move up. for example in a conference like the AAC, if SMU loses to Houston, they drop to 60.6 and that opens another spot. In conferences like the Big ten and Pac 12, where so many teams are candidates, if there are upsets, some one else is likely to drop out of contention, e.g. Iowa or Minnesota. I'm sure you can come up with a scenario that hurts the Big East, but largely they are helped by upsets.

a lot of the weak teams they played are done.

I just don't think St John's if they win(PC I think they are pretty much in if they win)- will get high enough off of that. Right now they are 57. If they go 1-1, it's not going to give them a plus 5 boost net from where they are right now.

not going with chalk doesn't necessarily help the Big East at all. The upsets that are more reasonable to expect hurt the Big East- see SEC for instance. Sure SMU could lose to Houston or Iowa/Minnesota could lose to Northwestern/Penn St. But that's not all too probable. But, it's more likely an upset it like tonight with Nebraska/Wisconsin.

Wins and losses matter, but no where near as much as you think. Right now, for one, you have 30 games under the belt so 1 more loss doesn't change as much as you think. Furthermore, the SOS impact is bigger- RPI is 1/4 record, 1/2 opponents record, and 1/4 opp opponents record.