Big East Tourney Seeding Probabilities

[Hacksaw]

Per request, I've put together an inaugural Big East Tourney seeding probabilities chart. I've been putting together something similar for the Missouri Valley conference for years, and even though my team still resides there, some Bluejay brethren have graciously asked me to take a crack at the Big East chart.

For seeding, I am using these 4 steps (please correct me if this is wrong, I can't seem to find solid info anywhere online or get a response from the Big East commissioner's office): 1) Best Conference Record, 2) Wins versus teams with the same conference record (head to head or mini round-robin), 3) Record vs team(s) occupying the highest position in the final standings (and on down), & 4) Coin flip.

With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These are pure numbers with 50%/50% possible outcome for each game.



For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.



Hope you all enjoy this, and let me know if you have any questions.

[Barley]

Awesome!!!

[Jet915]

Nice work.

[stever20]

Just looking at the 15 games...
think you aren't giving Marquette enough respect. Definitely think they're better than 35/65 vs Providence, and wouldn't say St John's vs them is 50/50. Also don't see PC having but maybe a 5% shot vs Creighton on McDermott's senior night.

[Randy]

I don't think it has anything to do with respect. I think he uses RPI forecasts, purely computer numbers.

[stever20]

I don't think it has anything to do with respect. I think he uses RPI forecasts, purely computer numbers.

yeah just saw that. It sure feels like the Providence game should be a lot closer than 35/65. And same with St John's(that number may get closer, last night's St John's game not included yet in RPI forecast)

[billyjack]

Great work, thanks!

P.S. How do you go about uploading the charts? Do you make them in Excel and then somehow upload to this site?

[Hacksaw]

Great work, thanks!

P.S. How do you go about uploading the charts? Do you make them in Excel and then somehow upload to this site?

Thanks, the charts are Excel to Imgur to this site. Imgur allows a very convenient "copy-paste" from Excel.

[OutlawWales]

Awesome to see this again. Was always one of the few things I enjoyed following on the old MVC Fans site. And, if my recollection is any good, I think Hacksaw's projections in the last couple of weeks tended to be pretty spot on with actual results at a pretty high percentage rate.

I'll admit I'm surprised that the computer data has Creighton's games at X and G'Town so heavily weighted in CU's favor -- both of those games worry me (and I think most CU fans) quite a bit and I think everyone would expect them to be closer to 60/40 or closer.

Thanks Hacksaw!

[marquette]

Wow, great info. Thanks!