The Holy Land of Hoops

He has five in from the Big East. Creighton is a 2, Nova is a 3, Xavier is a 10, Johnnies are an 11 (play-in), Providence is a 12 (play-in). Georgetown in in the "next four out". Big game at the Garden tomorrow night between the X and SJU.

4 Big East teams on the bubble. The BE tournament will be huge elimination games.

What we really need is for the rest of the bubble to drop a bunch of games. I'm confident that whatever teams we get in will win games.

Xavier, SJU, Providence and Georgetown are all at-risk bids for the moment. Here's what each team likely has to do in the regular season:

Xavier - go 2-2 down the stretch against @ SJU, vs. Creighton, @ SHU, vs. Nova - should probably avoid dropping the roadie vs. SHU, but not a killer, especially if offset with a win vs. Creighton/Nova

SJU - finish up 2-1 down the stretch against vs. Xavier, vs. DePaul and @ Marquette - but they can't have that one loss be vs. DePaul at home (bad loss)

PC - finish 2-1 down the stretch against @ SHU, vs. Marquette, @ Creighton - definitely tougher than the prior two; I'd put their odds at less than 50%

Georgetown - finish 2-1 down the stretch against @ Marquette, vs. Creighton and @ Nova - brutal end; MQ is near-impossible in their house and then two top-10 teams

The key for all these teams is not to lose to DePaul (duh), Seton Hall (bad RPI), or Marquette (good team but going nowhere in terms of NCAAs). Even beyond that, I think PC and St. John's both could use an extra win in the BET if they go both 2-1 down the stretch. Perhaps not PC if one of those two wins is @ Creighton.

gofriars08 wrote:Xavier, SJU, Providence and Georgetown are all at-risk bids for the moment. Here's what each team likely has to do in the regular season:

Xavier - go 2-2 down the stretch against @ SJU, vs. Creighton, @ SHU, vs. Nova - should probably avoid dropping the roadie vs. SHU, but not a killer, especially if offset with a win vs. Creighton/Nova

SJU - finish up 2-1 down the stretch against vs. Xavier, vs. DePaul and @ Marquette - but they can't have that one loss be vs. DePaul at home (bad loss)

PC - finish 2-1 down the stretch against @ SHU, vs. Marquette, @ Creighton - definitely tougher than the prior two; I'd put their odds at less than 50%

Georgetown - finish 2-1 down the stretch against @ Marquette, vs. Creighton and @ Nova - brutal end; MQ is near-impossible in their house and then two top-10 teams

The key for all these teams is not to lose to DePaul (duh), Seton Hall (bad RPI), or Marquette (good team but going nowhere in terms of NCAAs). Even beyond that, I think PC and St. John's both could use an extra win in the BET if they go both 2-1 down the stretch. Perhaps not PC if one of those two wins is @ Creighton.

Pretty much spot on I think- though I would say if they go what you say they need, they all except maybe for Georgetown quite frankly will need the extra win in the BET.

And I would actually argue that Marquette isn't dead yet. If they go 3-1 down the stretch(Georgetown, @ Villanova, @ Providence, and St Johns)- they would be 19-12 with a 11-7 conference record and a 58.1 RPI. That's not really a stretch to see them get that- get both of the home games and then beat Providence. Though they too would need a win in the BET.

If I am Nova or Creighton, I'm worried as heck about the Big East tourney. You guys are the only ones who can move the needle for the bubble teams to get a quality win so the XU, GU, PC, SJU's of the league are going to be fighting for their lives at MSG. Should make for an entertaining week.

ArmyVet wrote:If I am Nova or Creighton, I'm worried as heck about the Big East tourney. You guys are the only ones who can move the needle for the bubble teams to get a quality win so the XU, GU, PC, SJU's of the league are going to be fighting for their lives at MSG. Should make for an entertaining week.

I'm more worried about the regular season since we still have to play 3 of the 4 you listed there.

ArmyVet wrote:If I am Nova or Creighton, I'm worried as heck about the Big East tourney. You guys are the only ones who can move the needle for the bubble teams to get a quality win so the XU, GU, PC, SJU's of the league are going to be fighting for their lives at MSG. Should make for an entertaining week.

Agree. That very fact should make this one of the best tournaments ever. There will be a smell of desperation in the air. The kids will be playing their hearts out. Games will be down to the wire and I definitely expect some upsets.

I actually like SJU in the BET.

There was no chance the conference was going to fail to utilize an asset like MSG, but it definitely gives an unfair advantage to SJU, who happens to be playing very well right now.

Randy wrote:I actually like SJU in the BET.

There was no chance the conference was going to fail to utilize an asset like MSG, but it definitely gives an unfair advantage to SJU, who happens to be playing very well right now.

Agree. Gotta think that St. John's has a decent shot at winning the tournament. Home court puts their chances on par with those of Creighton & Villanova. The fact that they're on the bubble could just give them the extra incentive they need to play a little bit over their heads.