Bubble Watch 2014

[aughnanure]

Figure we should just get 1 thread to post all the bubble predictions and "on the fence" consternation.

ESPN's Bubble Watch updated today: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Big East Conference

Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Work left to do: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's

This has almost nothing to do with Bubble Watch, but it concerns the two locked-in Big East teams, so in it goes: In two games, Creighton scored 1.50 points per possession against Villanova. In every other Big East game, the Wildcats have allowed just .97 points per trip. Creighton is Villanova's defensive kryptonite. Creightonite? Let's move on.

Xavier [17-8 (7-5), RPI: 50, SOS: 72] Tennessee's ongoing struggles are no help to Xavier. On Nov. 12, that looked like a great win. A couple of months later, it still looked like it might help the Musketeers lock down a tournament bid. Now, its ceiling is "win over another bubble team," which, gee, thanks, UT. The Musketeers have a lot of potential help on the way: Road wins at Georgetown and St. John's Feb. 22 and 25 would be nice, and then home games against Creighton (March 1) and Villanova (March 6) sandwich a road trip to Seton Hall.

Georgetown [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 59, SOS: 30] Remember that whole John Thompson III Gladiator quote from Friday's edition? And how the Hoyas were suddenly playing well, and embarking on a revenge tour? All of that? Nevermind. Georgetown got drilled at St. John's Sunday night 82-60, and, while the bubble is more than soft enough to keep them around, a team with neutral-court wins over K-State, VCU and Michigan State shouldn't be reduced to this.

Providence [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 80] Providence beat DePaul at basketball Saturday, and, instead of making another mean joke about how terrible DePaul is at basketball, let's note that the Friars also own a win over Creighton (albeit at home) and could really use a home win over Villanova on Tuesday night to distinguish their otherwise "meh" profile.

St. John's [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 53, SOS: 41] What do we make of the Johnnies? Two weeks ago, we would have scoffed at the idea of Steve Lavin's team getting to the NCAA tournament, but in February, they're 5-0 in the following sequence: versus Marquette, at Providence, versus Creighton, at Seton Hall and versus Georgetown. As such, they have become a totally realistic bubble team. They're far from a guarantee, of course, but they've played themselves into serious discussion with one month to go.

CBS' Bubble Watch: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... bble-watch

On The Fence
ST. JOHN'S
The Red Storm have won eight of nine, but they had to do that just to get consideration. The win over Creighton is their best of the year by far. They need to stay hot with three of their next four at home.

PROVIDENCE
The Friars beat DePaul to end a three-game skid. They have a tough schedule left with Villanova at home and three of the last four on the road.

GEORGETOWN
The Hoyas lost to St. John's to break a four-game winning streak. Each game will get tougher as the end of the regular season approaches, and they need to keep piling up wins.

Work To Do
MARQUETTE
Marquette has won three in a row just to get on this page. They have a brutal schedule to finish the regular season, but that's good because this team needs quality wins.

[Bill Marsh]

Nice analysis, Augh. Since the committee looks at top 100 wins as well as top 50, I thought I'd add what each of the bubble teams has going for it in the top 100:

XAVIER - Tennessee, Cincinnati, St. John's, Marquette, Georgetown, Providence
GEORGETOWN - Kansas State, VCU, St. John's, Michigan state, Providence
PROVIDENCE - Vanderbilt, LaSalle, Georgetown @St. John's, Xavier, Creighton
ST. JOHN'S - Marquette, @Providence, Creighton, Georgetown
MARQUETTE - GW, @Georgetown, Providence, Xavier

[GumbyDamnit!]

Nice analysis, Augh. Since the committee looks at top 100 wins as well as top 50, I thought I'd add what each of the bubble teams has going for it in the top 100:

XAVIER - Tennessee, Cincinnati, St. John's, Marquette, Georgetown, Providence
GEORGETOWN - Kansas State, VCU, St. John's, Michigan state, Providence
PROVIDENCE - Vanderbilt, LaSalle, Georgetown @St. John's, Xavier, Creighton
ST. JOHN'S - Marquette, @Providence, Creighton, Georgetown
MARQUETTE - GW, @Georgetown, Providence, Xavier

This illustrates part of the problem with these teams. They just keep beating each other. No one is separating. Xavier was probably out front at one point, but the away games started to show up on their schedule. SJU looks like it found itself--that is until we see them lose to one of these other schools. It's a clusterf#ck. Xavier and Gtwn have at least some quality wins OOC (although both have at least 1 bad loss--USC & Northeastern). Maybe that will differentiate them if all 5 teams end up 9-9/10-8.

[HoosierPal]

For full disclosure, here are the records versus Top 50 RPI, per CBS.com

Georgetown 3-5
Providence 2-4
Marquette 2-8
Xavier 1-3
St. John's 1-5

[XUFan09]

Nice analysis, Augh. Since the committee looks at top 100 wins as well as top 50, I thought I'd add what each of the bubble teams has going for it in the top 100:

XAVIER - Tennessee, Cincinnati, St. John's, Marquette, Georgetown, Providence
GEORGETOWN - Kansas State, VCU, St. John's, Michigan state, Providence
PROVIDENCE - Vanderbilt, LaSalle, Georgetown @St. John's, Xavier, Creighton
ST. JOHN'S - Marquette, @Providence, Creighton, Georgetown
MARQUETTE - GW, @Georgetown, Providence, Xavier

This illustrates part of the problem with these teams. They just keep beating each other. No one is separating. Xavier was probably out front at one point, but the away games started to show up on their schedule. SJU looks like it found itself--that is until we see them lose to one of these other schools. It's a clusterf#ck. Xavier and Gtwn have at least some quality wins OOC (although both have at least 1 bad loss--USC & Northeastern). Maybe that will differentiate them if all 5 teams end up 9-9/10-8.

Agreed on the road wins for Xavier, but the home loss to Seton Hall also really didn't help. There was no need for a bad home loss on that resume.

[aughnanure]

Nice analysis, Augh. Since the committee looks at top 100 wins as well as top 50, I thought I'd add what each of the bubble teams has going for it in the top 100:

XAVIER - Tennessee, Cincinnati, St. John's, Marquette, Georgetown, Providence
GEORGETOWN - Kansas State, VCU, St. John's, Michigan state, Providence
PROVIDENCE - Vanderbilt, LaSalle, Georgetown @St. John's, Xavier, Creighton
ST. JOHN'S - Marquette, @Providence, Creighton, Georgetown
MARQUETTE - GW, @Georgetown, Providence, Xavier

Thanks, but you know I didn't do that "analysis," right? Haha.

[Jet915]

Unfortunately, the only way some of these teams will get off the bubble is if they beat Creighton or Villanova. Here's hoping for Villanova!

[aughnanure]

Unfortunately, the only way some of these teams will get off the bubble is if they beat Creighton or Villanova. Here's hoping for Villanova!

Actually 2 more losses for the both of you would be perfect, either in the BE Tourney or in regular season.

[Bluejay]

Did the bubble burst for Georgetown last night?

[Burrito]

Yeah, the Hoyas are done. Doubt they win any of the next four games, Xavier, Marquette, Creighton and Villanova. This year's been a debacle.