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RPI Forecast:

5. Villanova (2 seed)
12. Creighton (3 seed)
36. Xavier (9seed)

55. Georgetown (bubble)
56. Providence (bubble)
57. St. John's (bubble)

77. Marquette
120. DePaul
131. Butler
146. Seton Hall

Bill Marsh wrote:RPI Forecast:

5. Villanova (2 seed)
12. Creighton (3 seed)
36. Xavier (9seed)

55. Georgetown (bubble)
56. Providence (bubble)
57. St. John's (bubble)

77. Marquette
120. DePaul
131. Butler
146. Seton Hall

But do you have any idea which bubble teams will get a bid? Or show us a legitimate scenario? I think Georgetown can be 20-9 going into the Villanova game. From what I can see they have the best chance of staying "in."

Georgetown certainly has the best shot with OOC wins over RPI #10 Michigan St, #22 VCU, and #31 Kansas St.

Providence's best OOC win #89 Vanderbilt

St. John's best OOC win #92 San Francisco

Providence has 2 top 50 wins in Xavier and Crieghton.

St. John's only has one in Creighton. St. John's needs to win 2 out of 3 of Georgetown, Xavier, and Nova to have a shot at the tournament. 1 top 50 win will not cut it.

The Bubble (last 8 in/1st 8 out):

42. Richmond (IN)
43. Oregon (IN)
44. Missouri (IN)
45. St. Joe's (IN)
46. Stanford (IN)
47. BYU (IN)
49. Cal (IN)
50. Tennessee (IN)

51. St. Mary's (OUT)
53. Indiana State (OUT)
54. NC State (OUT)
55. Georgetown (OUT)
56. Providence (OUT)
57. St. John's (OUT)
58. Dayton (OUT)
59. Baylor (OUT)

This list is based only on projected RPI (http://www.RPIForecast.com), including conference tournaments. Other factors come into play for the selection committee, but last year the committee followed RPI in making its selections with just one exception.

This will continue to be volatile over the next month, but as upsets occur, I believe that the position of Big East teams will only strengthen because of the strength of the conference. Only the Big XII, Big Ten, and PAC-12 are ranked ahead of the Big East. So, upsets to tournament bound teams in lower ranked conferences will hurt those teams more than Big East teams and unexpected wins by bubble teams will count more for the Big East teams in general. Furthermore, the Big east teams will continue to improve their Strength of Schedule as the move through their slate of conference games while teams from lower ranked conferences will see their current SOS erode.

The best example of how the Big East Schedule can help a team is to look at how St. John's has risen with their current run of wins. At one point they were ranked around 100. Their rise has been remarkable and they are now solidly on the bubble, waiting for any teams in front of them to collapse or to rise further with a couple more unexpected wins.

hoyahooligan wrote:Georgetown certainly has the best shot with OOC wins over RPI #10 Michigan St, #22 VCU, and #31 Kansas St.

Providence's best OOC win #89 Vanderbilt

St. John's best OOC win #92 San Francisco

Providence has 2 top 50 wins in Xavier and Crieghton.

St. John's only has one in Creighton. St. John's needs to win 2 out of 3 of Georgetown, Xavier, and Nova to have a shot at the tournament. 1 top 50 win will not cut it.

Why not?

It's all relative to what other teams against whom they're competing for a bid have done. For example, take a look at some teams on the right side of the bubble:

Tennessee's only top 50 win is over Xavier.
BYU has only 2 top 50 wins, Texas and St. Mary's.
St. Joe's only top 50 win is over VCU.
Missouri's only top 50 win is over UCLA.
Oregon's only top 50 win is over BYU.
Richmond's only top 50 win is over UMass.

I don't like calling out teams (heh), but St Mary's I think cooked their RPI books:

St Mary's best wins:
- 48 North Dakota State.
- 60 Boise State.
- 76 Louisiana Tech.
- 90 Akron.
- 141 John Feinstein's American.
St Mary's worst losses:
- 209 Santa Clara.
- 184 San Diego (Toreros).
- 163 South Carolina.
- 145 George Mason.
- 143 Hawaii.

Indiana State's best wins:
- 61 Belmont.
- 112 Notre Dame.
Indiana State's worst losses:
- 61 Belmont. <--- played them twice.
- 130 Tulsa.
- 214 Southern Illinois.

NC State's best win:
- 50 Tennessee.
NC State's worst loss:
- 125 NC Central.

BYU's best wins:
- 23 Texas.
- 46 Stanford.
BYU's worst losses:
- 97 Pacific.
- 128 Pepperdine.
- 164 Portland.
- 169 Loyola Marymount.

Providence OOC losses:
- 9 Kentucky.
- 21 UMass.
- 68 Maryland.
Providence OOC wins include cupcakes that aren't disasters:
- 199 Brown. <--- they won at John Feinstein's American.
- 190 Boston College. <--- they screwed us by sucking.
- 148 URI.
- 140 Yale. <--- luckily they're not bad.
- 114 Vermont. <--- luckily they're not bad.
- 98 Vanderbilt. <--- thought they'd have been higher.
- 89 La Salle. <--- expected them to be higher.
PC wins OOC that are weak:
- 237 Marist.
- 288 Fairfield. <--- expected them to be solid.
- 331 Maine. <--- wow, 331 is pretty bad.

Billyjack, I think you are on the right track.

The biggest problem for both St Johns and Providence is a complete lack of quality noncon wins. In the last few years, the committee hasn't had a lot of sympathy for schools that don't beat anybody in the noncon. Because of this, SJU and Providence really need to finish strong in the conference to have a chance.

Georgetown has the best chance of the three simply because they've got some major noncon scalps including the likely B1G champ. Neutral court wins against Mich St, VCU and K State will carry a lot of weight.

hoyahooligan wrote:Georgetown certainly has the best shot with OOC wins over RPI #10 Michigan St, #22 VCU, and #31 Kansas St.

Providence's best OOC win #89 Vanderbilt

St. John's best OOC win #92 San Francisco

Providence has 2 top 50 wins in Xavier and Crieghton.

St. John's only has one in Creighton. St. John's needs to win 2 out of 3 of Georgetown, Xavier, and Nova to have a shot at the tournament. 1 top 50 win will not cut it.

It's too bad that we will still have only one after we beat the Hoyas Sunday.

Bluejay wrote:Billyjack, I think you are on the right track.

The biggest problem for both St Johns and Providence is a complete lack of quality noncon wins. In the last few years, the committee hasn't had a lot of sympathy for schools that don't beat anybody in the noncon. Because of this, SJU and Providence really need to finish strong in the conference to have a chance.

Georgetown has the best chance of the three simply because they've got some major noncon scalps including the likely B1G champ. Neutral court wins against Mich St, VCU and K State will carry a lot of weight.

The fact that they are on neutral courts make them even bigger. Georgetown is a team I could see getting in with 19 regular season wins plus conference tournament success because of what they did in the non-conference: One good neutral court win, two marquee neutral court wins, one really bad neutral court loss, and a non-conference SOS projected at 34th. Going 3-3 in this last set of games could be a real challenge though. Sagarin and Kenpom both project 2-4.

this guy is legit. i've been following him for years...


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm