The Holy Land of Hoops

PC?
G'twn?
Marq?
SHU?

This league is crazy.

It's gonna be either Georgetown or Providence IMO. Seton Hall and Marquette currently have the worst RPI's in the league and would have to get to atleast 12 Big East wins to get in the conversation. Not saying that can't happen but it would be really tough.

Jet915 wrote:It's gonna be either Georgetown or Providence IMO. Seton Hall and Marquette currently have the worst RPI's in the league and would have to get to atleast 12 Big East wins to get in the conversation. Not saying that can't happen but it would be really tough.

Agree. But every time we start hoping for a team to beat another something unexpected happens. VU, XU & CU are safe. The rest? Who knows.

GumbyDamnit! wrote:

Jet915 wrote:It's gonna be either Georgetown or Providence IMO. Seton Hall and Marquette currently have the worst RPI's in the league and would have to get to atleast 12 Big East wins to get in the conversation. Not saying that can't happen but it would be really tough.

Agree. But every time we start hoping for a team to beat another something unexpected happens. VU, XU & CU are safe. The rest? Who knows.

I'm not getting this circular logic. If the league is "only" a 3 bid league due to how good/bad our teams are then why should it be so unimaginable for a 4th team to get hot and run through that league right now? SHU has as good a reason to believe they could do so due to returning key players. I find it funny that people believed if PC got Dunn & 2 (likely very good) freshman back that they could have made a run, yet SHU getting Edwin, Teague & Auda back are viewed as still the same team that lost during the OOC. SJU, BU, PC isn't getting anyone back, so they are who they are outside of player/team development. The hoyas "should" get Smith back which could shake things up. If Dougie Buckets went down for a month I bet we would be hearing all the caveats anyone could stand though, lol.

Anyway, that's why they play the games, pundits be damned. Go Pirates!!!(4th team)

TheHall wrote:

GumbyDamnit! wrote:

Jet915 wrote:It's gonna be either Georgetown or Providence IMO. Seton Hall and Marquette currently have the worst RPI's in the league and would have to get to atleast 12 Big East wins to get in the conversation. Not saying that can't happen but it would be really tough.

Agree. But every time we start hoping for a team to beat another something unexpected happens. VU, XU & CU are safe. The rest? Who knows.

I'm not getting this circular logic. If the league is "only" a 3 bid league due to how good/bad our teams are then why should it be so unimaginable for a 4th team to get hot and run through that league right now? SHU has as good a reason to believe they could do so due to returning key players. I find it funny that people believed if PC got Dunn & 2 (likely very good) freshman back that they could have made a run, yet SHU getting Edwin, Teague & Auda back are viewed as still the same team that lost during the OOC. SJU, BU, PC isn't getting anyone back, so they are who they are outside of player/team development. The hoyas "should" get Smith back which could shake things up. If Dougie Buckets went down for a month I bet we would be hearing all the caveats anyone could stand though, lol.

Anyway, that's why they play the games, pundits be damned. Go Pirates!!!(4th team)

I think some of the optimism for PC with Dunn and Austin was based on how PC finished the season last year in the old BE (won 7 of last 9) and then the NIT once they had Dunn and Council at full strength. Coming into this season they lost Council, but gained Austin, Tyler Harris, Derosiers and Bullock. That's why I was surprised many didn't pick them higher preseason.

But I agree that at this point nothing is changing for Providence. They have the players they have. However, somehow this core of six players still doesn't have a "bad" loss despite the losses of Dunn, Austin and Bullock. PC's losses are to Maryland, Kentucky, UMass(OT), Seton Hall(2OT) and Villanova.

ChelseaFriar wrote:
I think some of the optimism for PC with Dunn and Austin was based on how PC finished the season last year in the old BE (won 7 of last 9) and then the NIT once they had Dunn and Council at full strength. Coming into this season they lost Council, but gained Austin, Tyler Harris, Derosiers and Bullock. That's why I was surprised many didn't pick them higher preseason.

But I agree that at this point nothing is changing for Providence. They have the players they have. However, somehow this core of six players still doesn't have a "bad" loss despite the losses of Dunn, Austin and Bullock. PC's losses are to Maryland, Kentucky, UMass(OT), Seton Hall(2OT) and Villanova.

In a post I made back when Dunn first went down I said as long as Ice, Batts & Henton were healthy PC is capable of get a bid. Not only do I still believe that, but I said that before we knew how good Harris would fit in (CD too). Best FT shooting team in the country is no pushover. That's also is why I thought SHU deserved more credit at the time for winning at the Dunk.

You have to look at this globally. In the likely event that Georgetown slips out of everyone's bracket this coming week, they will be replaced by someone on the "First Four Out" or "Next Four Out" group. As of last week, only Marquette was receiving any votes whatsoever in bracketology. They likely will disappear. So if Providence aspires to Dance, they need to first get some votes, which is likely, and then make it onto the list of 8 or 12 who didn't make it. Get in position to move up a month from now as others continue to falter.

My guess is that Dayton, Georgetown and Illinois will slip off of the majority of the Brackets. Who will replace them? Don't know. Arkansas would have been there with their win over Kentucky, but they stubbed their toe v Georgia. Stanford is certainly a candidate to move up as is Southern Miss. After that, all bets are off.

Villanova should climb into a 1 seed with Wisconsin's two losses. But they will need to beat Creighton to keep it. If Creighton looses to Villanova they could fall into one of those dreaded 7-8 seeds.

HoosierPal wrote:Villanova should climb into a 1 seed with Wisconsin's two losses. But they will need to beat Creighton to keep it. If Creighton looses to Villanova they could fall into one of those dreaded 7-8 seeds.

Actually the 7/10 seed isn't so bad, although it does typically mean a game against a 2 seed in the second round. The truly dread seed is the 8/9 seed because generally the 1 seeds, your second round opponent always, is usually very deserving of that seed. Frankly my preferred seeds, if I can't get a 1-3 seed, is either the 6/11 seed or the 7/10 seed. Those spots give you the best chance of getting into the Sweet Sixteen and beyond for anyone not in the 1-3 seed position.

I couldn't begin to tell you who it's gonna be, but I really do think the league is going to get 4 at large bids. It's the same way the old league got 11 one year. Yes, the perception is that the old league had a lot more opportunities for marquee wins, but- can we call Nova, Creighton, and Xavier marquee wins yet? Everyone plays them twice- that's 6 opportunities. The real reason I think we'll get a 4th is the depth of the league. We're talking 4 or 5 teams right now that have a realistic chance at 4th place. That means the team that gets it is really gonna have to earn it and I really do think that team is going to be rewarded by the selection committee.

And then don't forget about MSG! In a league this deep and this tight, it's already been made clear that anybody can beat anybody on a given night. At this point, I think I can realistically see 8 of the 10 teams going on a win streak at the Garden to take the auto-bid. I'd put my money on the 5 or 6 seed both of whom will be more than capable and in full-on desperation mode. If one of them takes the title, that's 5 bids (unless of course they just steal the 4th place team's bid).

Now that yesterday's dust has settled, here's the later RPI projection from www.rpiforecast.com. This is much more reliable than looking at the current RPI.

3. Villanova
16. Creighton
32. Xavier
58. Providence
62. Georgetown
86. Marquette
102. Butler
108. St. John's
120. Seton Hall
135. DePaul

On the Bubble:

43. SMU
44. Stanford
46. Texas
47. Tennessee
48. Ohio
49. Arizona State
50. Dayton
51. St. Mary's
52. Arkansas
54. Boise State
55. North Carolina
56. Louisiana Tech
58. Providence
59. Clemson

Here's how they rate the conferences:

1. Big XII
2. Big Ten
3. Pac-12
4. Big East
5. ACC
6. A-10
7. SEC
8. AAC
9. WCC
10. Mountain West
11. Missouri Valley
12. Mid American
13. CUSA
14. Horizon
15. Colonial
16. MAAC
17. Summit
18. Ivy
19. Sun belt
20. Patriot
21. Big West
22. WAC
23. Atlantic Sun
24. Big Sky
25. Northeast
26. Ohio Valley
27. Southland
28. Big South
29. Southern
30. America East
31. MEAC
32. SWAC