The Holy Land of Hoops

Things have changed with this week's results. The Xavier-Georgtown not only gave Xavier a bump but dropped Georgetown from a solid tournament pick to a bubble team. Here is the latest from RPI Forecast:

4. Villanova
15. Creighton
30. Xavier
49. Georgetown
70. Providence
76. Marquette
109. St. John's
112. Butler
129. DePaul
141. Seton Hall

It is disappointing to now have 40% of the conference outside the top 100.

Is the RPI that ESPN updates daily not the official RPI that you are referencing. They've got all of the BE teams in their Top 100 RPI with the exception of SHU, which comes in at 114.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/page/2/sort/RPI

For what it's worth, right now, only one Big East team is listed as sub-100 RPI according to ESPN (Seton Hall at 114).

So, looking at the other conferences for some perspective, here's how bottom heavy they are. How many teams have RPIs presently lower than Seton Hall's 114?
A-10: 4 out of 13 (31%)

ACC: 3 out of 15 (20%)

American: 5 out of 10 (50%)

Big 10: 2 out of 12 (17%)

Big 12: 1 out of 10 (10%). Texas Tech also clocked in at 109, so that's two members below 100.

Missouri Valley: 6 out of 10 (60%)

Mountain West: 5 out of 11 (45%). Fresno State clocked in at 112, so that's 6 members below 100.

Pac-12: 2 out of 12 (17%). Oregon State clocked in at 110, so that's 3 members below 100.

SEC: 4 out of 14 (35%). Vandy at 101 and Texas A&M at 107 means 6 members below 100.

WCC: 5 out of 10 (50%). San Francisco at 103, so 6 members below 100.

More support for the analysis that yea, there may not be a lot of world beaters in the Big East this year, and there are a couple disappointments, but there are NO pushovers.

GumbyDamnit! wrote:Is the RPI that ESPN updates daily not the official RPI that you are referencing. They've got all of the BE teams in their Top 100 RPI with the exception of SHU, which comes in at 114.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/page/2/sort/RPI

No, it's not. You can find the one I'm referencing at www.rpiforecast.com. It uses a far superior methodology to ESPN and is a projection of where teams will finish at the end of the season, not where they are right now.

notkirkcameron wrote:For what it's worth, right now, only one Big East team is listed as sub-100 RPI according to ESPN (Seton Hall at 114).

So, looking at the other conferences for some perspective, here's how bottom heavy they are. How many teams have RPIs presently lower than Seton Hall's 114?
A-10: 4 out of 13 (31%)

ACC: 3 out of 15 (20%)

American: 5 out of 10 (50%)

Big 10: 2 out of 12 (17%)

Big 12: 1 out of 10 (10%). Texas Tech also clocked in at 109, so that's two members below 100.

Missouri Valley: 6 out of 10 (60%)

Mountain West: 5 out of 11 (45%). Fresno State clocked in at 112, so that's 6 members below 100.

Pac-12: 2 out of 12 (17%). Oregon State clocked in at 110, so that's 3 members below 100.

SEC: 4 out of 14 (35%). Vandy at 101 and Texas A&M at 107 means 6 members below 100.

WCC: 5 out of 10 (50%). San Francisco at 103, so 6 members below 100.

More support for the analysis that yea, there may not be a lot of world beaters in the Big East this year, and there are a couple disappointments, but there are NO pushovers.

Kirk, not sure what difference it makes what the other conferences are doing. At least, not to me.

I'm interested in the fact that Villanova is in line for a #1 seed. That's great! I'm glad that Creighton looks to be in position for a top 4 seed as well. That's also great!

OTOH, I'm concerned that only one other team appears to be a lock for a bid at this point, that Georgetown has slipped to being a bubble team, and that no one else appears to be even close to getting on the bubble.

Bill Marsh wrote:OTOH, I'm concerned that only one other team appears to be a lock for a bid at this point, that Georgetown has slipped to being a bubble team, and that no one else appears to be even close to getting on the bubble.

It's still early, Georgetown, Marquette and Providence could indeed work their way back in...

whiteandblue77 wrote:

Bill Marsh wrote:OTOH, I'm concerned that only one other team appears to be a lock for a bid at this point, that Georgetown has slipped to being a bubble team, and that no one else appears to be even close to getting on the bubble.

It's still early, Georgetown, Marquette and Providence could indeed work their way back in...

I agree. In fact, if the season ended today, I think that Georgetown is in. Providence helped itself a lot with its last couple of wins and they're currently on the rise. But they're so badly lacking in depth that I find it hard to imagine that they won"t wear down as the season progresses. Marquette's fate rests on the effectiveness of their PG play IMO. Maybe yes, maybe no. So far the results haven't been encouraging.

Right now it looks like Villanova, Creighton and Xavier are in. Georgetown is a bubble team. I'd say Marquette and PC have outside shots. In the end, probably get 4 bids. Hopefully not 3.

Jet915 wrote:Right now it looks like Villanova, Creighton and Xavier are in. Georgetown is a bubble team. I'd say Marquette and PC have outside shots. In the end, probably get 4 bids. Hopefully not 3.

Sums it up pretty nicely.

I feel like it's still really early. So much seems to change in the last two weeks of each regular season.