The Holy Land of Hoops

Things breaking as they should. I'm starting to think 5 bids is realistic, and that 4 will happen.

First, Creighton is a very well coached team. They move the ball beautifully, they have the stud scorer, they have the complimentary pieces. They will every bit challenge nova for the regular season title (I think one of those two goes 14-4 for the reg season crown). I could see both creighton and nova as 4 seeds or better.

Second, georgetown looked great. The johnnies might be on the outside looking in this year. I assumed the 0-3 start for st john's, but they haven't looked good. Not sure they can bounce back. Not ruling out st john's yet, but I have them behind butler at this point. I am feeling comfortable about georgetown making the dance.

Third, the butler v xavier game was very fun to watch. Xavier has straightened the ship out, they have somewhat made up for the atlantis ship wreck disaster. Their win over cincy is looking better and better. Xavier has put themselves in position to make the dance.

Butler is 0-2, but those were "against the chalk" games that they weren't supposed to, and didn't have to, win in order to stay in contention.

I didn't pay much attention to the marquette v depaul game. Followed the score, but I don't see that game as meaning much. I like seeing marquette stay a float, but they have way too much to do to make the dance.

How I see it after today:

Tourney teams:
1. Nova
2. Creighton
3. Georgetown

Bubble teams that I think are in good shape
4. Xavier

The bubble:
5. Butler

Bubble trouble:
6. St johns

Still has a pulse, but a faint one:
7. Marquette

Other:
8. Providence
9. Depaul
10. Seton hall

Nova v providence tomorrow. Root for nova to win big and solidify their place in the national pecking order.

Butler has to go 10-6 the rest of the way. That's 6-6 against everyone else and 4-0 vs Seton Hall and DePaul. I just don't know about that. I could see them losing their next 3 games after DePaul- vs Georgetown, @ Creighton, and Marquette. Just don't see them winning enough..

I'd probably put St John's in that faint hope group- but behind Marquette.

Are you saying I have st john's too high, or marquette too low? I was expecting st john's to start 0-3, and I thought they would still control their own destiny. They have a run of more "winnable" games after they play Nova. I think Marquette is in real trouble, much moreso than the johnnies.

I think butler can win 10 or 11 games (I actually think 11 will be the number necessary for any team that loses rd 1 in nyc). The first two were not games that I would have pegged butler as wins anyway, so my opinion hasn't changed.

Butler's path to 11 wins:
Seton hall, depaul, providence (twice each) (5-1?)
Nova, creighton (twice), (1-2?)
Xavier, georgetown (twice) (2-1 (thinking they win the home ones)?)
Marquette, st johns (twice each) (3-1?)

This would require an upset against one of nova/creighton, but also allows them to be upset by one of the pc/shu/depaul group as well as drop a game in the marquette/sju group (although the marquette/sju group would require a road win), and they hold home court against georgetown and xavier.

Obviously it won't play out exactly like that. But I see that as a likely path to an 11-7 record for butler.

Friarfan2 wrote:Are you saying I have st john's too high, or marquette too low? I was expecting st john's to start 0-3, and I thought they would still control their own destiny. They have a run of more "winnable" games after they play Nova. I think Marquette is in real trouble, much moreso than the johnnies.

I think butler can win 10 or 11 games (I actually think 11 will be the number necessary for any team that loses rd 1 in nyc). The first two were not games that I would have pegged butler as wins anyway, so my opinion hasn't changed.

Butler's path to 11 wins:
Seton hall, depaul, providence (twice each) (5-1?)
Nova, creighton (twice), (1-2?)
Xavier, georgetown (twice) (2-1 (thinking they win the home ones)?)
Marquette, st johns (twice each) (3-1?)

This would require an upset against one of nova/creighton, but also allows them to be upset by one of the pc/shu/depaul group as well as drop a game in the marquette/sju group (although the marquette/sju group would require a road win), and they hold home court against georgetown and xavier.

Obviously it won't play out exactly like that. But I see that as a likely path to an 11-7 record for butler.

I'm saying St John's is too high. it wasn't they lost today, they didn't show up. I think they're in the same boat now quite frankly. St John's needs to go 10-6 the rest of the way. Marquette 10-6 probably as well- though for both of them maybe 11-5 quite frankly.

I think Butler has a very fine line now. just looking at that- if they don't beat nova or Creighton, they would have to go 10-3(or 11-2) against everyone else. That's going to be really tough. It's not impossible, but very difficult.

There is too much data for the committee to look at for the score of a random january road game to matter all that much. St john's lost, but the final score is pretty irrelevant.

I still think st john's is in better shape than marquette. I recognize that the johnnies are in trouble, but I think they can still hold serve and make it while marquette has to do a bit more. I don't think either team makes it at the end of the day, but their pulse is still beating (that's why I have johnnies in bubble trouble, because I think they are in trouble)

Butler will pull some upsets, they will also get upset, but I think they get to double digit wins. I think they may need 11, but I think they can get there. Not at all concerned about their first two games results, as they weren't supposed to win those games. I think they looked real good and that makes me confident that they can clean it up against the bottom three, hold their own against marquette and the jonnhies, pull an upset or two against the top 4. If they do that, they can make it.

Friarfan2 wrote:There is too much data for the committee to look at for the score of a random january road game to matter all that much. St john's lost, but the final score is pretty irrelevant.

I still think st john's is in better shape than marquette. I recognize that the johnnies are in trouble, but I think they can still hold serve and make it while marquette has to do a bit more. I don't think either team makes it at the end of the day, but their pulse is still beating (that's why I have johnnies in bubble trouble, because I think they are in trouble)

Butler will pull some upsets, they will also get upset, but I think they get to double digit wins. I think they may need 11, but I think they can get there. Not at all concerned about their first two games results, as they weren't supposed to win those games. I think they looked real good and that makes me confident that they can clean it up against the bottom three, hold their own against marquette and the jonnhies, pull an upset or two against the top 4. If they do that, they can make it.

with how bad St John's OOC schedule was, they have to do more than just win 10 games quite frankly. They need at least 11 to be in.

I'm not really defending st johns here. (I'm also taking this portion of the conversation over to the other thread: path to 5 bids, as we seem to be repeating ourselves).

Some teams had to lose today. I'm glad georgetown looked impressive, they are looking better and better. Between butler and xavier, I am fine with the home team winning and both looked pretty good. I'm glad creighton took care of business, and between marquette and depaul we would rather marquette win.

Things broke right today. Now we just need nova to beat pc and it will have been a very good weekend.