The Holy Land of Hoops

Was just looking at Ken Pom and they have projections for every day...
NYE
St John's @ Xavier- Xavier 67-63 68%
Seton Hall @ Providence- Providence 71-62 83%
DePaul @ Georgetown- Georgetown 81-67 89%
Villanova @ Butler- Villanova 67-66 57%
Marquette @ Creighton- Creighton 75-68 76%

So 4 of the 5 home teams projected to win- and the 1 road team is a slight favorite. 4 weeks from yesterday!

The last two games of the day are certainly the best ones. Would he nice if they included some ranked teams.

What's your point?

That's exactly what I would have expected going into the season as well.

I think the biggest changes are-
1- I'm fairly certain Creighton was not a 7 point favorite on Marquette start of the year....
2- Probably the St John's/Xavier game. 68% for Xavier- when I'd guess it was a pick'em type game start of the year.
3- Not sure what the Nova/Butler game would have been. Both are upgraded from 2-3 weeks ago.

The other 2 are probably close to what would have been earlier- maybe Providence a bit more of a favorite now from before.

stever20 wrote:I think the biggest changes are-
1- I'm fairly certain Creighton was not a 7 point favorite on Marquette start of the year....
2- Probably the St John's/Xavier game. 68% for Xavier- when I'd guess it was a pick'em type game start of the year.
3- Not sure what the Nova/Butler game would have been. Both are upgraded from 2-3 weeks ago.

The other 2 are probably close to what would have been earlier- maybe Providence a bit more of a favorite now from before.

I meant more in terms of who would win and who would lose. I don't think those have changed at all. I definitely would've had those 5 teams winning at the beginning of the year and I think most everyone else would have too.

The Kenpom score predictions don't seem to be very accurate even later in the season and I doubt they're very good at this point in the year. I remember I used his scores for a prediction contest where you tried to guess the final scores of games and I didn't win a single time. Fairly accurate in predicting the correct winner, but not the points scored or the margin.

hoyahooligan wrote:

stever20 wrote:I think the biggest changes are-
1- I'm fairly certain Creighton was not a 7 point favorite on Marquette start of the year....
2- Probably the St John's/Xavier game. 68% for Xavier- when I'd guess it was a pick'em type game start of the year.
3- Not sure what the Nova/Butler game would have been. Both are upgraded from 2-3 weeks ago.

The other 2 are probably close to what would have been earlier- maybe Providence a bit more of a favorite now from before.

I meant more in terms of who would win and who would lose. I don't think those have changed at all. I definitely would've had those 5 teams winning at the beginning of the year and I think most everyone else would have too.

The Kenpom score predictions don't seem to be very accurate even later in the season and I doubt they're very good at this point in the year. I remember I used his scores for a prediction contest where you tried to guess the final scores of games and I didn't win a single time. Fairly accurate in predicting the correct winner, but not the points scored or the margin.

I could have seen the St John's/Xavier game being different(definitely a lot closer % if not favored), and even Creighton/Marquette. Think Creighton probably would be favored- but not at a 76% chance of winning by any stretch.