Why expand?

[Dave]

...Personally I see no reason to expand. In fact I see a lot of reasons not to expand. Ten seems like a perfect number. The conference is perfectly balanced between East Coast and Midwest. There is a core of teams with high level success in recent years that qualify the league as a power conference. There are great traditions and markets throughout the 10 members. The schedule of 18 games offers double round robin among all members....

Even though I agree with you about the perfection bball-wise of our conference with the 10 team schedule, geographical balance, etc but here are 2 practical reasons to go to 12 that come to mind:

1. This chart:



I'm using this chart to represent the biggest threat to the BE maintaining it's success going forward, which is the dreaded mid-major status. Which chart will wind up describing the performance/perception balance of our conference over the next 2-3 years?

Type 1- Positive skew (literally) = The BE is led by 1-3 top 15 teams (ex: SHU, Gtown, Marq?), 3-5 top 16-50 teams, 0-2 top 50+ teams. This is the B1G high-major model. This is the ACC model too except they really fall off after the first 2-3 teams historically. But they can get away with it because those 2 teams are cbb royalty.

Type 2- Normal (probably BE current status) = The BE led by 1-2 top 10-25 teams, 4-7 top 26-100 teams, 1-2 top 100+ team. This is the B12, WCC & Mountain West (maybe) model. If in the first 2-3 years the BE shows itself to be a solid conference but evenly balanced our brand will be hard to market as high major. No elite conference has this type of "performance distribution" historically.

Type 3- Negative (train wreck) = The BE is led by 0-2 ranked teams, 4-6 top 26-100 teams, 2-3 top 100+ teams. This is A-10, Pac12 all-day. Unfortunately with the departure of Brad Stevens, as is, this scenario has increased in likelihood.

If in the first 2-3 years the BE shows itself to be a type a conference then expansion from a bball perspective is not as vital. However if the BE shows itself to be strong but evenly balanced (type b) our brand will be hard to market as elite. At that point conference expansion is the only quick way to change our graph. That's where the choice of 11 & 12 gets tricky because I doubt there are any non-fb schools except Gonzaga that could change the BE from a type 2 to a type 1 perception. Also the BE must not only perform as a type 1 or at least type 2 (I refuse to consider type 3) conference but we must also recruit similarly as far as recruiting rankings over time.

But no matter the conference the performance the drive to 12 will happen because of the next reason.

2. FOX SPORTS wants/needs more quality programing over the next few years period.

Nice. The obvious point to me is that you want any new additions to "average up" the conference, not drop its average. You want any adds to be at least on par with the top 4 teams. While not trying to disparage these programs, SLU, Dayton, Richmond, VCU, etc. just do not do that.

I would agree with Bill, better to stay at 10 than to add those schools.

But there is one available target that is an add. I'm not going to mention that program by name, because I would not want to influence anyone else's natural thought process. Try to imagine that program on your own. It has 3 recent history national championships (it's not UNC or Duke, it is not in one of the top conferences).

If we could land that school, have 11 teams, keep a true 20 game round robin conference schedule... then a nice compromise would be a scheduling arrangement with the west. Zags play a series with our top 4. St. Marys with another 4, yada yada yada...

We would get the average-up boost with a top program in the NYC market that will boost MSG post season, give FOX a more attractive package, and get a west coast arrangement that some unreasonably crave without the burden of sending swim teams and track teams to Spokane.

Everybody's happy.

[TheHall]

Nice. The obvious point to me is that you want any new additions to "average up" the conference, not drop its average. You want any adds to be at least on par with the top 4 teams. While not trying to disparage these programs, SLU, Dayton, Richmond, VCU, etc. just do not do that.

I would agree with Bill, better to stay at 10 than to add those schools.

But there is one available target that is an add. I'm not going to mention that program by name, because I would not want to influence anyone else's natural thought process. Try to imagine that program on your own. It has 3 recent history national championships (it's not UNC or Duke, it is not in one of the top conferences).

If we could land that school, have 11 teams, keep a true 20 game round robin conference schedule... then a nice compromise would be a scheduling arrangement with the west. Zags play a series with our top 4. St. Marys with another 4, yada yada yada...

We would get the average-up boost with a top program in the NYC market that will boost MSG post season, give FOX a more attractive package, and get a west coast arrangement that some unreasonably crave without the burden of sending swim teams and track teams to Spokane.

Everybody's happy.

Thanks. I don't know if I worded it right originally, but the short version is we don't need to add to the conference indiscriminately, instead we may need to add to the upper teir of the conference (Zags brand would qualify) if some current teams don't step up. The challenge is the level of play needed to remain elite is a level that these progs (SHU, Prov, etc) haven't demonstrated in a long time or ever in the BE (new additions). Expansion as a choice is a option I hope we have but I make no assumption that we won't need to regardless of preference, this is a business.

[buckswope]

The obvious point to me is that you want any new additions to "average up" the conference, not drop its average. You want any adds to be at least on par with the top 4 teams. While not trying to disparage these programs, SLU, Dayton, Richmond, VCU, etc. just do not do that.

Are you sure about that?

Here are all 14 programs ranked by average KenPom ranking from the past 2 seasons.

Code: Select all

          2013 2012 2yr-AVG
1 Gtown    13   13   13
2 SLU      18   14   16
3 Marq     27   18   22.5
4 Crei     19   34   26.5
5 VCU      16   40   28
6 Nova     43   78   60.5
7 Xavier   79   51   65
8 Dayton   67   65   66
9 Butler   45   110   77.5
10 SHall   109   57   83
11 Rich    83   105   94
12 Prov    65   124   94.5
13 SJU     104   152   128
14 DePaul  162   144   153


[marquette]

The obvious point to me is that you want any new additions to "average up" the conference, not drop its average. You want any adds to be at least on par with the top 4 teams. While not trying to disparage these programs, SLU, Dayton, Richmond, VCU, etc. just do not do that.

Are you sure about that?

Here are all 14 programs ranked by average KenPom ranking from the past 2 seasons.

Code: Select all

          2013 2012 2yr-AVG
1 Gtown    13   13   13
2 SLU      18   14   16
3 Marq     27   18   22.5
4 Crei     19   34   26.5
5 VCU      16   40   28
6 Nova     43   78   60.5
7 Xavier   79   51   65
8 Dayton   67   65   66
9 Butler   45   110   77.5
10 SHall   109   57   83
11 Rich    83   105   94
12 Prov    65   124   94.5
13 SJU     104   152   128
14 DePaul  162   144   153


And that's why the 5 year audition period. If SLU continues to be in the top 25 for 3-5 years I would assume they become a no-brainer. Ditto for any other school who does the same. I will posit that the final ranking in a given year is probably more significant than average ranking. UW-Green Bay hurt us pretty bad last year, but we recovered and made the elite 8.

[DumpsterFireA10]

Why the sudden push for UConn? They have a better chance at the Big 12.

Dave, quit disparaging SLU. Did you realize the Billikens were actually eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year?

[Dave]

Why the sudden push for UConn? They have a better chance at the Big 12.

Dave, quit disparaging SLU. Did you realize the Billikens were actually eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year?

That is the whole point of the mid-major mentality - measuring appearances instead of Final Fours and Championships.

SLU is a nice program. We needed 10. I would have been ok with SLU as one of the original 3 adds. But the decision to add more than 10, in my opinion, should be based on raising the conference. I don't think SLU does that.

If for some reason (FOX), we needed a 12 if we added an 11, and the 11 was UConn, SLU could be a 12. Just being real, not disrespectful.

[TheHall]

Why the sudden push for UConn? They have a better chance at the Big 12.

Dave, quit disparaging SLU. Did you realize the Billikens were actually eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year?

That is the whole point of the mid-major mentality - measuring appearances instead of Final Fours and Championships.

SLU is a nice program. We needed 10. I would have been ok with SLU as one of the original 3 adds. But the decision to add more than 10, in my opinion, should be based on raising the conference. I don't think SLU does that.

If for some reason (FOX), we needed a 12 if we added an 11, and the 11 was UConn, SLU could be a 12. Just being real, not disrespectful.

Well put, everything you said here is what I've been saying from the beginning, includig the respect for SLU (VCU, Richmond & Dayton) part.

[DumpsterFireA10]

Why the sudden push for UConn? They have a better chance at the Big 12.

Dave, quit disparaging SLU. Did you realize the Billikens were actually eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year?

That is the whole point of the mid-major mentality - measuring appearances instead of Final Fours and Championships.

SLU is a nice program. We needed 10. I would have been ok with SLU as one of the original 3 adds. But the decision to add more than 10, in my opinion, should be based on raising the conference. I don't think SLU does that.

If for some reason (FOX), we needed a 12 if we added an 11, and the 11 was UConn, SLU could be a 12. Just being real, not disrespectful.

How many tournaments can you win if you're not eligible to play? That wasn't a mid-major mentality, that was a simple question of why I think UConn is a better fit in the Big 12 than the Big East. SLU gives the Big East a market they don't have. Who else does that with a tournament level team? I think UConn is a great program on the floor, but they remind me of UNLV off it.

[TheHall]

Why the sudden push for UConn? They have a better chance at the Big 12.

Dave, quit disparaging SLU. Did you realize the Billikens were actually eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year?

That is the whole point of the mid-major mentality - measuring appearances instead of Final Fours and Championships.

SLU is a nice program. We needed 10. I would have been ok with SLU as one of the original 3 adds. But the decision to add more than 10, in my opinion, should be based on raising the conference. I don't think SLU does that.

If for some reason (FOX), we needed a 12 if we added an 11, and the 11 was UConn, SLU could be a 12. Just being real, not disrespectful.

How many tournaments can you win if you're not eligible to play? That wasn't a mid-major mentality, that was a simple question of why I think UConn is a better fit in the Big 12 than the Big East. SLU gives the Big East a market they don't have. Who else does that with a tournament level team? I think UConn is a great program on the floor, but they remind me of UNLV off it.

Just a reminder calhoun isn't the coach anymore and no one speaks of ollie that way.

[Bill Marsh]

Why the sudden push for UConn? They have a better chance at the Big 12.

Dave, quit disparaging SLU. Did you realize the Billikens were actually eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year?

That is the whole point of the mid-major mentality - measuring appearances instead of Final Fours and Championships.

SLU is a nice program. We needed 10. I would have been ok with SLU as one of the original 3 adds. But the decision to add more than 10, in my opinion, should be based on raising the conference. I don't think SLU does that.

If for some reason (FOX), we needed a 12 if we added an 11, and the 11 was UConn, SLU could be a 12. Just being real, not disrespectful.

How many tournaments can you win if you're not eligible to play? That wasn't a mid-major mentality, that was a simple question of why I think UConn is a better fit in the Big 12 than the Big East. SLU gives the Big East a market they don't have. Who else does that with a tournament level team? I think UConn is a great program on the floor, but they remind me of UNLV off it.

That's a cheap shot at UConn. Exactly what are you referring to that makes them remotely like the old UNLV program?