Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[booyah]

Is this convo 5-8 years too early? Yeah, unless something crazy happens.

Crazy 1-
Chances of a Dayton/VCU/Richmond/Davidson? making a run over the next couple years is unlikely. I agree. But I dont think its non-zero - keep in mind that Butler made its runs to the championship game as 5 and 8 seeds, and unranked going into the tourney. It wouldnt suprise me if those teams ended up between a 5-8 seed. If they then pulled even one Butler run, I'd think they are in.

I dont think it matters if Wichita St. makes a run - they aren't getting an invite. Unfortunately, I'd assume its the same story with Gonzaga. If being good at bball was enough to overcome their geography, they'd be in already.

Crazy 2 -
The second crazy twist i could see is if the NCAA rules were changed to allow associate bball members, in the same way associate football members were allowed. In such a case, Gonzaga would be getting a Big East invite the next day. I'd assume the AAC would take VCU and Wichita St. almost immediately, for the RPI and NCAA tourney credits if nothing else.

Crazy 3 -
something absurd over in CFB realignmment land makes one of a million scenarios that have already been covered to death occur. (UConn etc.)

[NJRedman]

We have 10 years left on this TV contract. This thread is jumping the gun by about 5-8 years.

A lot can change in 5-8 years. Just loot at the landscape of college sports in 2007.

The Big East was a 16 team behemoth, the Big XII had 12 teams, the Big Ten had 11, Utah and TCU were in the MWC along with BYU and the WAC still sponsored FBS FB.

If the Big XII gets picked apart and the four power conferences are at 16 we would feel the pressure to add a few ourselves. I don't think we'd go to 16 but I can see us definitely going to 12 just to keep up with the power leagues. Hell I could even see us jumping to 14 with all four of the teams I listed. A bridge to Creighton with Saint Louis, an expansion into the Mid-atlantic with Richmond and Davidson and a great fan base and instant rivalry with Dayton.

With the A-10 sitting at 10 after this I could see invites being extended to a few of these schools. Siena, Vermont, Iona, Manhattan, Stoney Brook, BU, Bucknell, Albany and maybe down into the UNC-Willminton or Ashville. I wanted to put Robert Morris on the list but I think the Dukes in Pittsburgh would say no to them. Though I think they would take maybe one of the schools around NYC.

[marquette]

We have 10 years left on this TV contract. This thread is jumping the gun by about 5-8 years.

A lot can change in 5-8 years. Just loot at the landscape of college sports in 2007.

The Big East was a 16 team behemoth, the Big XII had 12 teams, the Big Ten had 11, Utah and TCU were in the MWC along with BYU and the WAC still sponsored FBS FB.

If the Big XII gets picked apart and the four power conferences are at 16 we would feel the pressure to add a few ourselves. I don't think we'd go to 16 but I can see us definitely going to 12 just to keep up with the power leagues. Hell I could even see us jumping to 14 with all four of the teams I listed. A bridge to Creighton with Saint Louis, an expansion into the Mid-atlantic with Richmond and Davidson and a great fan base and instant rivalry with Dayton.

With the A-10 sitting at 10 after this I could see invites being extended to a few of these schools. Siena, Vermont, Iona, Manhattan, Stoney Brook, BU, Bucknell, Albany and maybe down into the UNC-Willminton or Ashville. I wanted to put Robert Morris on the list but I think the Dukes in Pittsburgh would say no to them. Though I think they would take maybe one of the schools around NYC.

Mostly agree, but I would rather have VCU or Richmond than Davidson. They are the definition of a one-coach-program (5 NCAA appearances prior to McKillop), tiny enrollment, tiny arena, 4th team in the state at best, way outside our footprint. They do have a nice new practice facility and some recent history, but that's about it.

[DudeAnon]

Just a link, but muscoop had this same discussion basically and i feel their was great.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?PHPSES ... ic=48716.0

Basic conclusion, all the good adds (Dayton, SLU, VCU, Richmond, Davidson) ain't going nowhere and we have 10 years of stability left. So we should wait it out and see what happens. What is wrong with a 10-team conference? I feel this discussion wouldn't be happening if we handn't dropped the ball in the NCAA. And if thats the case, we keep getting 5+ teams in the tourney, odds are we make a Final Four in the next 5 years.

Also, here is a beautiful post that UDPride posted on MUscoop in 2012 before the C7 split away.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic= ... #msg422884

[GoldenWarrior11]

That UDPride post was hilarious at the time, and even more funny today. That analysis could not have been more wrong.

[MUBoxer]

Oh UDpride... That's one troll I almost wish would come to this board. He was so delusional about his conference and program it was hilarious

[Bill Marsh]

Is this convo 5-8 years too early? Yeah, unless something crazy happens.

Crazy 1-
Chances of a Dayton/VCU/Richmond/Davidson? making a run over the next couple years is unlikely. I agree. But I dont think its non-zero - keep in mind that Butler made its runs to the championship game as 5 and 8 seeds, and unranked going into the tourney. It wouldnt suprise me if those teams ended up between a 5-8 seed. If they then pulled even one Butler run, I'd think they are in.

I dont think it matters if Wichita St. makes a run - they aren't getting an invite. Unfortunately, I'd assume its the same story with Gonzaga. If being good at bball was enough to overcome their geography, they'd be in already.

Crazy 2 -
The second crazy twist i could see is if the NCAA rules were changed to allow associate bball members, in the same way associate football members were allowed. In such a case, Gonzaga would be getting a Big East invite the next day. I'd assume the AAC would take VCU and Wichita St. almost immediately, for the RPI and NCAA tourney credits if nothing else.

Crazy 3 -
something absurd over in CFB realignmment land makes one of a million scenarios that have already been covered to death occur. (UConn etc.)

Good comments. Interesting.

I know you're entertaining even the wildest possibilities here, but just want to make the point that Crazy 2 will never happen. The football situation only exists because a school can have all it's sports in one league and might have a sport that the league doesn't sponsor. The school is then allowed to find another league for that sport. It's not just football. In some cases it's LAX, in others it's hockey, etc. so, it could happen today if there were a league that didn't sponsor basketball. But of course everyone plays basketball. Bottom line is that there is no special exemption for football.

[Bill Marsh]

Just a link, but muscoop had this same discussion basically and i feel their was great.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?PHPSES ... ic=48716.0

Basic conclusion, all the good adds (Dayton, SLU, VCU, Richmond, Davidson) ain't going nowhere and we have 10 years of stability left. So we should wait it out and see what happens. What is wrong with a 10-team conference? I feel this discussion wouldn't be happening if we handn't dropped the ball in the NCAA. And if thats the case, we keep getting 5+ teams in the tourney, odds are we make a Final Four in the next 5 years.

Also, here is a beautiful post that UDPride posted on MUscoop in 2012 before the C7 split away.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic= ... #msg422884

There is nothing inherently wrong with 10 team leagues. Heck I'm old enough to remember when 8 team leagues were the standard, when we thought that the Big Ten was really big, and there were 6 team leagues. So, I like a 10 team league and maybe we should stick with that regardless of all else.

There are lots of problems with 16 team leagues. They are really 2 leagues under one umbrella. But when they don't function that way and follow the old Big East model, we've seen how easy it is to get buried in the bottom tier and never get out. And that's just scratching the surface of the problems.

Having said all that, there are reasons to consider a 12 team league in the modern context. To compete at the highest levels these days, programs need money. Access to money comes from TV contracts. It's hard to get and command dollars in a big TV contract these days with a smaller number of teams even though the old Big East did it. Marketing is key and it's harder to market 10 than 12. It's harder to command dollars from 10 markets than 12. The more teams in a conference, the better the chances of having someone's in the mix who is competing for the Final Four. It's especially hard to do it with smaller private schools and it's even harder when the competition has 14-15 schools.

After seeing recent scandals at Louisville, SMU, North Carolina, UConn, and Memphis (Kentucky is just a scandal waiting to happen), I'm at the point of not caring if we can compete. If that's what it takes, I don't want any part of it. I only want to add if we can get a culturally compatible program of the caliber of Gonzaga. Otherwise I'm happy to stay at 10.

[milksteak]

I know Wichita State is probably 5th or so on our list, but this is definitely hard to ignore. They are spending a crap load of money on their program.

http://shockerhoops.net/index.php/2015/10/05/gregg-marshalls-contract-details-released/

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Xavier is in the same market as Dayton, and has had more success.

I think he was trying to say that they [Dayton] is a similar academic institution to Xavier (in the same TV market), but with less success on the basketball court.

Cincinnati and Dayton are two separate TV markets.


Dayton No. 2 TV market in nation for NCAA Tournament - March 24, 2015

Dayton is the No. 2 TV market in the nation for viewership of this year's NCAA men's basketball tournament through the first week of the event.

A report in the Louisville Courier-Journal cites Nielsen statistics as having Dayton ranked second overall with a 17.1 rating across all of its networks that aired the games — CBS, TNT, TBS and truTV.

Louisville was the top market with a 22.3 rating. Among the others in the Top 5 were Cincinnati (16), Columbus (14.9), and Indianapolis (14.6).

Those ratings give Ohio three of the top four markets for NCAA TV ratings for the first week of the tournament.

It also represents a big surge for Dayton, which is gaining on Louisville. Through the first week of the tournament last year, Louisville had 22.9 and Dayton was second with 15, a margin of 7.9. This year's margin for the same period was 5.2.

UD Basketball Again Delivers Strong Television Ratings – June 2, 2015


Nielson - Local Television Market Universe Estimates - Effective September 26, 2015

36. Cincinnati
64. Dayton