Bubble Watch

[billyjack]

#215 Virginia Tech 65, #101 Georgia Tech 63. <--- at Virginia Tech

I'm including this game in our bubble watch, because Dick Vitale and ESPN told us in November that the ACC will be getting 11 bids, so Georgia Tech must be one of their bubble teams...?

[GumbyDamnit!]

1- UConn end of the day easily could have something that matches PC and that's a road win at SMU if they can get it this week....

2/3- absolutely dovetail each other. Because Seton Hall's OOC schedule wasn't that good, they can't get 12 losses and feel comfortable, while someone else like a Florida who scheduled better OOC absolutely could get in with 12 losses. It's not a hard formula about the number of losses, it's about the number of losses for Seton Hall. Xavier for instance at 18-13 would have a projected RPI of 41.2. Seton Hall at 18-12 has a projected RPI of 52.9. That is all OOC scheduling. Xavier's OOC schedule was 26th. Seton Hall 151. The conference schedule would be exactly the same. Going back to Florida. Their overall SOS is #6. That's why Florida gets in with 12 with no issues at all, and Seton Hall is in serious question with 12 losses. Seton Hall would absolutely have to make the SF to make the tourney if they lose 12 games(yes, that could mean winning a 1st rd game and then a QF game).

Bottom like, I don't think Seton Hall gets remotely close to 18 wins quite frankly, and it's going to be a moot point.

Stever I think you meet resistance on here because you constantly move the goalposts and cherry pick the one stat that fits your argument, and then claim that single stat will lead to a definitive conclusion by the committee. You point to OOC SOS as a determining factor in a comparison between SHU and Florida but casually dismiss that SHU will play at least 10 games in conf vs Top 50 teams and 8 vs Top 25. Do those games just not matter? Also RPI is the end all be all in some arguments you make until you look at FLA who currently sits with an RPI of 65. So which is it? At the end of the day if FLA and SHU both finish with 12 losses and an overall SOS in the same ball park it will be up to the committee to split hairs. Nothing will be definitive. Also you point to SJU not having a quality win but don't use that same criteria with SHU (vs Nova). Temple gets the nod b/c they have one good win at home vs KU, but SHU...?

And to say that "if UCONN wins at SMU they are comparable to PC" is the most ridiculous thing you've ever said. What would be the comparable RPI's at that point? Answer: no where near each other. You do realize that PC has TWO wins vs Top 25 RPI teams ON THE ROAD. And what would that do to SMU's chances? Answer: It would give them a questionable loss at home. PC has a better chance of knocking off a Top 6 RPI team this week than UCONN does of knocking off a Top 40ish RPI team. Who has the better chance of bolstering their resume's again?

Lastly you're love for the AAC is transparent. I would group both Cincy and SMU right around where XU is right now. All 3 are probably in but just need to win the games they're supposed to. Tulsa, Temple and GW have paper-thin resume's, and are in that last 4-5 in/out range, just like SHU and SJU. UCONN is in worse shape than SJU b/c they have no shot at an at-large and SJU certainly does. At this point just end the conversation. All of those teams need to do something these last few weeks to differentiate themselves. If they don't they are out. Enough with the dissection of every metric to support your argument and just let things play out before declaring you have all the answers. You don't.

[NovaSleas]

Gumby, I read that to mean that if UConn beats SMU it would be a win comparable to beating Providence.

[stever20]

1- UConn end of the day easily could have something that matches PC and that's a road win at SMU if they can get it this week....

2/3- absolutely dovetail each other. Because Seton Hall's OOC schedule wasn't that good, they can't get 12 losses and feel comfortable, while someone else like a Florida who scheduled better OOC absolutely could get in with 12 losses. It's not a hard formula about the number of losses, it's about the number of losses for Seton Hall. Xavier for instance at 18-13 would have a projected RPI of 41.2. Seton Hall at 18-12 has a projected RPI of 52.9. That is all OOC scheduling. Xavier's OOC schedule was 26th. Seton Hall 151. The conference schedule would be exactly the same. Going back to Florida. Their overall SOS is #6. That's why Florida gets in with 12 with no issues at all, and Seton Hall is in serious question with 12 losses. Seton Hall would absolutely have to make the SF to make the tourney if they lose 12 games(yes, that could mean winning a 1st rd game and then a QF game).

Bottom like, I don't think Seton Hall gets remotely close to 18 wins quite frankly, and it's going to be a moot point.

Stever I think you meet resistance on here because you constantly move the goalposts and cherry pick the one stat that fits your argument, and then claim that single stat will lead to a definitive conclusion by the committee. You point to OOC SOS as a determining factor in a comparison between SHU and Florida but casually dismiss that SHU will play at least 10 games in conf vs Top 50 teams and 8 vs Top 25. Do those games just not matter? Also RPI is the end all be all in some arguments you make until you look at FLA who currently sits with an RPI of 65. So which is it? At the end of the day if FLA and SHU both finish with 12 losses and an overall SOS in the same ball park it will be up to the committee to split hairs. Nothing will be definitive. Also you point to SJU not having a quality win but don't use that same criteria with SHU (vs Nova). Temple gets the nod b/c they have one good win at home vs KU, but SHU...?

And to say that "if UCONN wins at SMU they are comparable to PC" is the most ridiculous thing you've ever said. What would be the comparable RPI's at that point? Answer: no where near each other. You do realize that PC has TWO wins vs Top 25 RPI teams ON THE ROAD. And what would that do to SMU's chances? Answer: It would give them a questionable loss at home. PC has a better chance of knocking off a Top 6 RPI team this week than UCONN does of knocking off a Top 40ish RPI team. Who has the better chance of bolstering their resume's again?

Lastly you're love for the AAC is transparent. I would group both Cincy and SMU right around where XU is right now. All 3 are probably in but just need to win the games they're supposed to. Tulsa, Temple and GW have paper-thin resume's, and are in that last 4-5 in/out range, just like SHU and SJU. UCONN is in worse shape than SJU b/c they have no shot at an at-large and SJU certainly does. At this point just end the conversation. All of those teams need to do something these last few weeks to differentiate themselves. If they don't they are out. Enough with the dissection of every metric to support your argument and just let things play out before declaring you have all the answers. You don't.

If Florida gets to 19-12, their projected RPI is 33.1 with an overall SOS of 6.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Florida.html

If Seton Hall gets to 18-12, their projected RPI is 53.5 with an overall SOS of 41.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Seton%20Hall.html

You might not like it, but there is no splitting hairs there at all about which one would get in. It'd be Florida and it wouldn't be close. The SOS isn't even remotely close at all. Part of that is Florida's conference schedule. They play Kentucky, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi, and Vanderbilt 2x. Of those 5, only Vandy is projected to be out of the top 100(and them just barely). Of the top 6 SEC teams besides Florida, they play 4 of them 2x. Means they are avoiding all the bad RPI teams a 2nd time.

Your point about Seton Hall and conference top 25 games. Right now, that number is 8, but Georgetown and Providence are like 22 and 25. Won't take much to get that out of the top 25.

Seton Halls problem isn't with having a top win, but it's going to be having enough wins. The problem for them is they are absolutely trending down right now. Temple has won 11 of 14 since they got their full team(which is another consideration for the committee- with a win over Kansas.

My point about If UConn wins at SMU- that absolutely is equal to winning at Providence. And, it wouldn't be a bad loss for SMU. Also, SMU is not a top 40ish RPI team. You may want to look at the RPI, SMU right now is 22. I know that makes you sick, but that is what it is.

Also, UConn absolutely still has a shot at an at large. If they can get to 19-11(winning 6 of 8), their RPI entering the conference tourney would be 52.8. All it would take from there would be a win or two in the conference tourney and voila they are in.

Your statement about Cincy, SMU, and Xavier- let's look
Cincy right now is 17-6. Looks like the RPI says 21-10 is their magic number- puts them at 39.6. Remaining schedule has 4 teams with a RPI projected 185 or worse. Maybe win those 4 and get 1 other win, and they should be absolutely safe.
SMU right now is 18-5. Looks like RPI says 20-9 is their magic number- puts them at 34.5. Remaining schedule has Houston, UConn, Temple, Memphis, UConn, and Tulsa. That seems right.
Xavier right now is 15-9. Looks like RPI says 18-13 is their magic number- puts them at 41.5. Remaining schedule has Marquette, St John's, Cincy, Butler, St John's, Villanova, and Creighton. It seems right- but the one thing that Xavier has that the other 2 don't have is with that record, a 1st game conference tourney loss puts their record down to 18-14, and that's real dangerous.

[Bill Marsh]

Gumby, I read that to mean that if UConn beats SMU it would be a win comparable to beating Providence.

Current RPI:

PC == 21
SMU = 22

[stever20]

#215 Virginia Tech 65, #101 Georgia Tech 63. <--- at Virginia Tech

I'm including this game in our bubble watch, because Dick Vitale and ESPN told us in November that the ACC will be getting 11 bids, so Georgia Tech must be one of their bubble teams...?

The thing that is funny- this next week and a half, we should all be VT fans. They play @ Clemson, @ Miami, and @ NC State. Any VT wins there would probably be fatal for the losing team. Buzz has them playing well last 6 games- 2 wins and losses by 3 to Virginia, 3 to Wake, 2 to Syracuse, and 8 to FSU.

Is it possible the ACC could get only 5 teams in the tourney? Clemson is 77 right now, Miami 55, Pitt 63, and NC State 64. My gosh, Karma is a biatch.

[GumbyDamnit!]

.

If Florida gets to 19-12, their projected RPI is 33.1 with an overall SOS of 6.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Florida.html

If Seton Hall gets to 18-12, their projected RPI is 53.5 with an overall SOS of 41.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Seton%20Hall.html

You might not like it, but there is no splitting hairs there at all about which one would get in. It'd be Florida and it wouldn't be close. The SOS isn't even remotely close at all. Part of that is Florida's conference schedule. They play Kentucky, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi, and Vanderbilt 2x. Of those 5, only Vandy is projected to be out of the top 100(and them just barely). Of the top 6 SEC teams besides Florida, they play 4 of them 2x. Means they are avoiding all the bad RPI teams a 2nd time.

Your point about Seton Hall and conference top 25 games. Right now, that number is 8, but Georgetown and Providence are like 22 and 25. Won't take much to get that out of the top 25.

Seton Halls problem isn't with having a top win, but it's going to be having enough wins. The problem for them is they are absolutely trending down right now. Temple has won 11 of 14 since they got their full team(which is another consideration for the committee- with a win over Kansas.

My point about If UConn wins at SMU- that absolutely is equal to winning at Providence. And, it wouldn't be a bad loss for SMU. Also, SMU is not a top 40ish RPI team. You may want to look at the RPI, SMU right now is 22. I know that makes you sick, but that is what it is.

Also, UConn absolutely still has a shot at an at large. If they can get to 19-11(winning 6 of 8), their RPI entering the conference tourney would be 52.8. All it would take from there would be a win or two in the conference tourney and voila they are in.

Your statement about Cincy, SMU, and Xavier- let's look
Cincy right now is 17-6. Looks like the RPI says 21-10 is their magic number- puts them at 39.6. Remaining schedule has 4 teams with a RPI projected 185 or worse. Maybe win those 4 and get 1 other win, and they should be absolutely safe.
SMU right now is 18-5. Looks like RPI says 20-9 is their magic number- puts them at 34.5. Remaining schedule has Houston, UConn, Temple, Memphis, UConn, and Tulsa. That seems right.
Xavier right now is 15-9. Looks like RPI says 18-13 is their magic number- puts them at 41.5. Remaining schedule has Marquette, St John's, Cincy, Butler, St John's, Villanova, and Creighton. It seems right- but the one thing that Xavier has that the other 2 don't have is with that record, a 1st game conference tourney loss puts their record down to 18-14, and that's real dangerous.

Stever, you don't see the forrest for the trees. Everything you post is based on IF's, are completely slanted to fit your agenda, and you are looking at one factor instead of a variety of metrics. "IF Florida wins 7 of it's last 8 they get in over SH." Really? One of those games is @ UK. LOSS. So basically you are expecting them to go undefeated for the rest of their games? What have they shown to make you think that this FL team is capable of that? See that's called cherry picking. Since FL has a better OOC schedule than SH you use them as the team to compare them to if both were on the bubble, and declare OOC as the one key thing to compare them. Why not compare SHU's SOS with teams that will be closer to the bubble than FL will be: Dayton, GW, Tulsa and URI? You want to see some BAD SOS's just check those AAC/A10 teams out.

Your point about Seton Hall and conference top 25 games. Right now, that number is 8, but Georgetown and Providence are like 22 and 25. Won't take much to get that out of the top 25.

But they are Stever. And the fact is that SH will have to play them at least twice along with Butler and Nova. Add potentially another 1 or 2 in the BET and that is a whole lot more than any AAC team or even FLA with their impeccable OOC SOS can say. GA and Ark are both currently hovering around the RPI Top 25 as well. "Won't take much to get them out of the Top 25." So using this/your logic their Top 25 games in conference could, at the end of the day, amount to 2 (UK). Add in the 3 from OOC (including Gtwn BTW, who you consider might not be there for long) and that is 5 total games (instead of the 7; but could really be only 4). What's funny is that SHU had two OOC games vs. Top 25 so it's not like they played no one. Add the 8-10 in conf and remind me again of why SHU should feel bad about their SOS?

Now, on the other side of the coin. Let me just say that in 2014-15, the AAC is SOOOOOO underwhelming. The reason Temple has won 11 of 14 is because the AAC is so dreadful. But let's talk specifically about SMU. I have no idea how the RPI #'s add up positively for SMU. I'm truly baffled. Do you realize that they may face the tournament committee without having a SINGLE WIN vs. another tournament team? Let me pull an "IF" out for you. IF neither Tulsa nor Temple make the tourney, (which is a real and distinct possibility--far more believable than FL winning 7 of 8) than SMU will have 0 "good" wins this year. Their record vs. the RPI Top 50? How about 2-5, with their only two wins vs. teams #36 and #45 (Temple/Tulsa). That's pretty bad. Now X on the other hand is 3-3 vs. the RPI top 50 with 3 of those wins vs. the RPI Top 25. So if you are so sure that SMU and Cincy are locks than X must be the 5th lock for the BE.

[stever20]

About SMU's RPI-
right now, they are 15.6-4.6 own record. 2 home losses, 3 road losses. 6 road wins.
opponents records are 279-207. That's #56 right now.
opponents opponents records 5565-5211 102 right now.

comparing to Seton Hall
own record is 12.6-7.2
opponents records 281-226. That's #79 right now
opponents opponents records 6235-5320 #20 right now

So SMU has a very good own record and a very solid opponents record(which counts 50%).

OOC- Seton Hall right now has 1 game in the top 25- Wichita at #21. Georgia right now is #27.

About the chances of neither Tulsa/Temple making the tourney....
They have a game left with each other.
If Tulsa wins- they would be up to 18 wins, needing 21 to have a rpi of 40. They have left games with ECU and Tulane. Would then pretty much with those 2 games just need to win 1 other game vs UConn, Memphis, Cincy, and SMU.
If Temple wins- they would be up to 18 wins, needing 21 to have a rpi of 44. They have games left with ECU, Houston, and ECU.
So pretty much, the Tulsa/Temple winner will make it almost certainly. And loser(especially if it's Temple), has a very real chance of making it as well.

No team is a lock where they could finish 18-14. Period. That's the ONLY thing that is holding Xavier back right now. Well, that and bad road/neutral record, and 3 bad losses. That's why tonight is crucial for Xavier- a loss tonight and they probably finish 18-13, with then 4 bad losses, and another road loss.

[GumbyDamnit!]

About SMU's RPI-
right now, they are 15.6-4.6 own record. 2 home losses, 3 road losses. 6 road wins.
opponents records are 279-207. That's #56 right now.
opponents opponents records 5565-5211 102 right now.

comparing to Seton Hall
own record is 12.6-7.2
opponents records 281-226. That's #79 right now
opponents opponents records 6235-5320 #20 right now

So SMU has a very good own record and a very solid opponents record(which counts 50%).

OOC- Seton Hall right now has 1 game in the top 25- Wichita at #21. Georgia right now is #27.

About the chances of neither Tulsa/Temple making the tourney....
They have a game left with each other.
If Tulsa wins- they would be up to 18 wins, needing 21 to have a rpi of 40. They have left games with ECU and Tulane. Would then pretty much with those 2 games just need to win 1 other game vs UConn, Memphis, Cincy, and SMU.
If Temple wins- they would be up to 18 wins, needing 21 to have a rpi of 44. They have games left with ECU, Houston, and ECU.
So pretty much, the Tulsa/Temple winner will make it almost certainly. And loser(especially if it's Temple), has a very real chance of making it as well.

No team is a lock where they could finish 18-14. Period. That's the ONLY thing that is holding Xavier back right now. Well, that and bad road/neutral record, and 3 bad losses. That's why tonight is crucial for Xavier- a loss tonight and they probably finish 18-13, with then 4 bad losses, and another road loss.

Real time RPI (which I use) has GA at 24 but whatever... If not, that is one less Top 25 team that FL has played.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

I find it hard to believe that the tourney committee is going to look at Tulsa's schedule and either X, SJU or SH's and worry that one team has 18 wins and the other has 21. X's SOS is 15; Tulsa's 111. When X has to play 8 games vs. Top 25 teams, and another 4 vs. two other teams that are on the bubble, there are going to be losses. What has been Tulsa's best win of the year? Temple. Another middling bubble team. That is it. 1 Top 50 win. All of these other teams have 3 or 4 minimum. So like SMU there is a decent chance that Tulsa might face the tourney committee without a single "good" win. I wouldn't want my team to be in that position if I were a fan.

1). RPI numbers aside how do you account for Tulsa not beating anyone of note (outside of Temple, I guess)?
2). Don't you think that was the single reason why SMU did not receive a bid last year? If you recall they had 23 wins last year and the AAC was much better (with L'ville and a good UCONN).
3). Don't you find it amazing that the AAC teams (with the possible exception of Cincy who has had a so-so OOC slate) can point to maybe one good win OOC (Temple vs. KU)? And after that...nothing of note at all.
4). Don't you think that since they are the 8th best conf in terms of RPI, that it is going to bite them? I really suspect it will.

[stever20]

About SMU's RPI-
right now, they are 15.6-4.6 own record. 2 home losses, 3 road losses. 6 road wins.
opponents records are 279-207. That's #56 right now.
opponents opponents records 5565-5211 102 right now.

comparing to Seton Hall
own record is 12.6-7.2
opponents records 281-226. That's #79 right now
opponents opponents records 6235-5320 #20 right now

So SMU has a very good own record and a very solid opponents record(which counts 50%).

OOC- Seton Hall right now has 1 game in the top 25- Wichita at #21. Georgia right now is #27.

About the chances of neither Tulsa/Temple making the tourney....
They have a game left with each other.
If Tulsa wins- they would be up to 18 wins, needing 21 to have a rpi of 40. They have left games with ECU and Tulane. Would then pretty much with those 2 games just need to win 1 other game vs UConn, Memphis, Cincy, and SMU.
If Temple wins- they would be up to 18 wins, needing 21 to have a rpi of 44. They have games left with ECU, Houston, and ECU.
So pretty much, the Tulsa/Temple winner will make it almost certainly. And loser(especially if it's Temple), has a very real chance of making it as well.

No team is a lock where they could finish 18-14. Period. That's the ONLY thing that is holding Xavier back right now. Well, that and bad road/neutral record, and 3 bad losses. That's why tonight is crucial for Xavier- a loss tonight and they probably finish 18-13, with then 4 bad losses, and another road loss.

Real time RPI (which I use) has GA at 24 but whatever... If not, that is one less Top 25 team that FL has played.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

I find it hard to believe that the tourney committee is going to look at Tulsa's schedule and either X, SJU or SH's and worry that one team has 18 wins and the other has 21. X's SOS is 15; Tulsa's 111. When X has to play 8 games vs. Top 25 teams, and another 4 vs. two other teams that are on the bubble, there are going to be losses. What has been Tulsa's best win of the year? Temple. Another middling bubble team. That is it. 1 Top 50 win. All of these other teams have 3 or 4 minimum. So like SMU there is a decent chance that Tulsa might face the tourney committee without a single "good" win. I wouldn't want my team to be in that position if I were a fan.

1). RPI numbers aside how do you account for Tulsa not beating anyone of note (outside of Temple, I guess)?
2). Don't you think that was the single reason why SMU did not receive a bid last year? If you recall they had 23 wins last year and the AAC was much better (with L'ville and a good UCONN).
3). Don't you find it amazing that the AAC teams (with the possible exception of Cincy who has had a so-so OOC slate) can point to maybe one good win OOC (Temple vs. KU)? And after that...nothing of note at all.
4). Don't you think that since they are the 8th best conf in terms of RPI, that it is going to bite them? I really suspect it will.

1- Tulsa would have a sweep of Temple, and a win over UConn(which could easily start to look really good if UConn gets a few more wins)
2- the big reason why SMU didn't get in was they had several bad losses. And a much worse OOC schedule.
3- you look at the OOC and the OOC ratings for the schedules look really good. SMU 16, Cincy 18, Temple 46. Only Tulsa not at 115. Temple easily could get a pass because a lot of their tougher OOC games were before they had their entire team. That will matter. Cincy has a big win over San Diego St as well.
4- conference RPI is meaningless. Teams get bids, conferences don't. Why do you think we have a very real shot at only 5 bids?

You keep wanting to just focus on the AAC or A10 teams. If it's not one of those, it's going to be someone else. And for Xavier- their problems would not just be the 18-14 record. It would also be at least 3 bad losses and a bad road/neutral record. You get 1 of those and it's a red flag for the committee. All 3 of those and you pretty much have zero chance. Xavier has a lot of strikes against it if it gets really close end of the year. To me, Xavier doesn't want to tempt fate putting themselves in front of the committee at 18-14.