Bubble Watch

[Bill Marsh]

1 thing today did I think is almost completely eliminate the chance of 7 bids(w/o the BET).

Seton Hall and St John's both have 8 losses. Both if they get to 12 are likely out barring a run in the BET....

The loser of their game is in deep trouble... While the winner is still not out of the woods by any stretch...
Seton Hall- would need 4 wins from Georgetown, Providence, Villanova, Creighton, Providence, and Georgetown. Good luck with that.
St John's would need 5 wins from DePaul, Xavier, Georgetown, Xavier, Georgetown, Marquette, and Villanova. Also good luck with that.

And, if St John's got 2 wins from Xavier in their process-
Xavier would need then 4 wins from Marquette, Cincy, Butler, Villanova, and Creighton. Tough...

Also if you notice Seton Hall and St John's have 2 games each vs Georgetown. That's 4 of the Hoya's final 6 games. We still need 2 more wins at least.

At it again with the old double standard?

You've been repeatedly posting that UConn will win the American because they have home court advantage in the conference tournament, but you don't even mention the possibility of a St. John's win of the BE auto bid with their home court advantage in the conference tournament. Why is that? St. John's has been a stronger team than UConn this year.

Why does 12 losses = "likely out" for either of these teams RPI projects Seton Hall to have 12 losses and still has them as likely in anyway. What do you know that they don't?

If 12 losses are an automatic disqualifier, I guess that means that Michigan State and Florida, who currently project into the tournament with 12+ losses, will also be staying home, right? And who will they be replaced with? Teams like Illinois and LSU with11 losses? The committee will look at nothing else except that one loss?

St John's has won the tourney how many times at their place? Also, what exactly has St John's done? They have a sweep of Providence, and that's really about it.

Michigan St and Florida- look at their RPI at 19-12
Florida 33.1
Michigan St 47.6
a whole hell of a lot better than Seton Hall. Part of that is SOS OOC- Seton Hall is 151, Michigan St is 78 and Florida is 23. Yeah that matters. Each team has the record they need to get to, and for Seton Hall it's 19-11. 18-12 is going to be very fringish for them- would require a win in the BET to have any chance at all of making the tourney. Seton Hall didn't exactly test themselves big time OOC, and it could come back to bite them end of the day.

Also, wouldn't say RPI has Seton Hall anywhere near being about to say as Likely in.

Let's take your points one at a time:

1. "What has St. John's done?" Clever point of distraction. The question should be, "What has UConn done?" My point was that you have repeatedly advanced the notion that UConn will win the AAC tournament due to home court advantage while not even mentioning St. John's as a possibility even though they have the same home court advantage. The fact is that UConn doesn't have any wins comparable to St. John's win @ Peocidence. So again, why the double standard, counting on UConn to win the AAC tournament while ignoring St. John's? Either ignore both of them or give St. John's the same shot you give UConn.

2. Why should I look at Florida's and MSU's RPI to respond to your point about Seton Hall's 12 losses? You never mentioned RPI. You just said that 12 losses is too many. By bringing RPI into the conversation, you're acknowledging that it's not just about the number of losses, which was exactly my point in the first place.

3. Why are you talking about SOS OOC. Are you suggesting that the committee uses that as a determining factor? They don't. It's irrelevant. Seton Hall's overall SOS projects to #42 by season's end. No committee is going to penalize them for a 42 SOS.

At 18-12, RPI Forecast has Seton Hall with the 50th best RPI. With 17 conference champions in the top 50, picking 36 at-large teams brings the committee down to the top 53 in RPI. That puts Seton Hall in the field. Of course there are scenarios that can change that, but as of now they're in the field. My objection is with your statement that "If they get to 12, they're likely out." It's not true. If they get to 12, they're on the bubble and at this point, they're on the right side of the bubble. Of course a lot will change between now and Selection Sunday.

[stever20]

1- UConn end of the day easily could have something that matches PC and that's a road win at SMU if they can get it this week....

2/3- absolutely dovetail each other. Because Seton Hall's OOC schedule wasn't that good, they can't get 12 losses and feel comfortable, while someone else like a Florida who scheduled better OOC absolutely could get in with 12 losses. It's not a hard formula about the number of losses, it's about the number of losses for Seton Hall. Xavier for instance at 18-13 would have a projected RPI of 41.2. Seton Hall at 18-12 has a projected RPI of 52.9. That is all OOC scheduling. Xavier's OOC schedule was 26th. Seton Hall 151. The conference schedule would be exactly the same. Going back to Florida. Their overall SOS is #6. That's why Florida gets in with 12 with no issues at all, and Seton Hall is in serious question with 12 losses. Seton Hall would absolutely have to make the SF to make the tourney if they lose 12 games(yes, that could mean winning a 1st rd game and then a QF game).

Bottom like, I don't think Seton Hall gets remotely close to 18 wins quite frankly, and it's going to be a moot point.

[stever20]

Let me rephrase things this way...

I don't think there's a doubt in the world- if St John's or Seton Hall get to 19 wins, they are in(with the exception if win #19 is in the 1st rd of the BET vs Creighton or Marquette). My biggest thing is with how both of them have been playing, I just do not think they are playing well enough to get to 19 wins. Seton Hall last 13 games is 6-7. St John's last 11 has gone 4-7. Maybe 1 of them gets it turned around, but maybe neither do.

So I think they're kind of a different type of bubble team. They both really control their own fates. If they get the wins, they're in. There's pretty close to zero doubt to me if one of them gets to 19-11 regular season, they're in-as long as they don't get a bad loss in the BET 1st game. With their end schedules though, I just don't see that happening.

[Bearcat_Bounce]

The Big East is a 5 bid league, and the 5th team Xavier is on shaky grounds due to their upcoming schedule. I don't see Seton Hall or St. Johns making the tournament.

[R Jay]

The AAC is a 3 bid league, and the third team SMU is on shaky ground due to their upcoming schedule. I don't see UCONN or Temple making the tournament.

[R Jay]

LOL, 2 minutes after I post this and stever is already on to defend the AAC.

[stever20]

The AAC is a 3 bid league, and the third team SMU is on shaky ground due to their upcoming schedule. I don't see UCONN or Temple making the tournament.

SMU on Shaky ground? SMU could go 2-4 last 6 games, finish at 20-9 and have a 34.5 RPI. They are a lock right now just about. no bad losses at all.

Also, if SMU loses 4 games, that means that most likely UConn has 2 more wins and Temple probably has a win as well. Guess what that does, help those 2 teams out.

I'm on to repute idiotic statements. If you say something idiotic yeah I'm going to say something about it.

Frankly with what is left, we want SMU to win because that doesn't give UConn or Temple a chance at a good win to get them closer to the bracket.

[Bill Marsh]

The AAC is a 3 bid league, and the third team SMU is on shaky ground due to their upcoming schedule. I don't see UCONN or Temple making the tournament.

SMU on Shaky ground? SMU could go 2-4 last 6 games, finish at 20-9 and have a 34.5 RPI. They are a lock right now just about. no bad losses at all.

Also, if SMU loses 4 games, that means that most likely UConn has 2 more wins and Temple probably has a win as well. Guess what that does, help those 2 teams out.

I'm on to repute idiotic statements. If you say something idiotic yeah I'm going to say something about it.

Frankly with what is left, we want SMU to win because that doesn't give UConn or Temple a chance at a good win to get them closer to the bracket.

Steve, calm. Down. He was joking by mimicking Bearcat Bounce. He's the one who was making the idiotic statement, not R Jay.

[Bearcat_Bounce]

The AAC is a 3 bid league, and the third team SMU is on shaky ground due to their upcoming schedule. I don't see UCONN or Temple making the tournament.

The AAC will be a 3 bid league. Cincinnati and SMU are in barring collapse. One of Temple/Tulsa/UConn will also make the tournament. If UConn wins the conference tournament (played on their home floor), then there is a possibility of 4 teams. Another prediction, Creighton will not make the NCAA tournament. I'm pretty confident in that one.

[Bearcat_Bounce]

The AAC is a 3 bid league, and the third team SMU is on shaky ground due to their upcoming schedule. I don't see UCONN or Temple making the tournament.

SMU on Shaky ground? SMU could go 2-4 last 6 games, finish at 20-9 and have a 34.5 RPI. They are a lock right now just about. no bad losses at all.

Also, if SMU loses 4 games, that means that most likely UConn has 2 more wins and Temple probably has a win as well. Guess what that does, help those 2 teams out.

I'm on to repute idiotic statements. If you say something idiotic yeah I'm going to say something about it.

Frankly with what is left, we want SMU to win because that doesn't give UConn or Temple a chance at a good win to get them closer to the bracket.

Steve, calm. Down. He was joking by mimicking Bearcat Bounce. He's the one who was making the idiotic statement, not R Jay.

What was idiotic about the statement? Please explain.