USA Predicts . . .

[robinreed]

The history of BE teams does not indicate that more than 3 are ever likely to be in the top 25 in the nation at the end of the season. However getting 3 or occasionally 4 or more teams in the dance should be very easy to achieve in a 10 team conference. Increasing the conference membership to 12, 14 or 16 is very unlikely to increase our presence in the tournament in any significant way. If that were the case then the SEC would have 5 to 7 teams every year. After all they have a 14 school conference with many state flagship schools all of which have much more money and many more students and alumnus than we have. Obviously they have the resources and yet they do not achieve the success which many suggest the larger conferences should possess. There is something to be said for quality rather than quantity.

Although I am a Xavier fan first I do believe that being in a strong conference is essential for our common good. Should we eventually add additional schools? Perhaps, but finding quality schools with quality basketball is not as easy as some might think. Also there is an apparent prejudice against adding state or other public schools which one sometimes sees on this board and which may reflect amongst alumni and students of our schools or may not.

Who can we add besides Gonzaga (who is ten million miles from everyone except Creighton?) St. Louis, Dayton and a few others are possible however in the short run do they really make us a better conference? Clearly it is questionable.

Getting quality schools with quality basketball is not easy. Of the 10 teams in the BE now only 3 rate in the top quality basketball programs since the beginning of college basketball.

7. St. Johns 106 seasons 1754 wins .653%
30. Georgetown 105 seasons 1569 wins .620%
43. Marquette 96 seasons 1520 wins .622%

I believe that all except perhaps DePaul and Seton Hall are amongst the top 100 in the last 10 years however.

Nova all time:
94 seasons
1617-909 .640%
27th all time in wins
9th All time in NCAA tourney appearances.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/

Interestingly Nova has had only 5 different coaches since 1936. That's a little crazy.

Thanks for the correct info Gumby. I have corrected my post to include nova's exceptional record. I used the info on Wiki which differs only slightly from the site you used. No slight against Nova intended as I have a niece who graduated from Villanova and still lives in Malvern. She would be offended my my omission.

[Bill Marsh]

NIT winners back in the day, St. John's, Seton Hall, and DePaul might dispute the claim of "the only 3 teams to win a national championship."

[marquette]

NIT winners back in the day, St. John's, Seton Hall, and DePaul might dispute the claim of "the only 3 teams to win a national championship."

Well, if we're going that route then Butler gets to claim a couple from the pre-tournament era. So, hooray! That's 70% of the conference.

[Frambo]

NIT winners back in the day, St. John's, Seton Hall, and DePaul might dispute the claim of "the only 3 teams to win a national championship."

Well, if we're going that route then Butler gets to claim a couple from the pre-tournament era. So, hooray! That's 70% of the conference.

Sorry if this has already been stated...but X won the NIT in the '50's too

[Hall2012]

Expanding the conference will do little to increase our number of NCAA Tournament bids unless we're adding top quality programs- such as UConn. Padding records against conference bottom feeders is exactly impressive to the committee. The number of teams the conference that gets in to the tournament largely comes down to how everyone performs in non-conference play. That's where the Big East gets to prove itself against the other conferences. If the 10 of us combine to pick up a bunch of quality (top 25 and 50) wins and avoid all bad losses in non-conference play, then the committee will have no problem putting a bottom half team with a slightly under .500 BE record in the dance. If even a few teams have average to poor non-conference results, we're pretty much going to be capped at 4 (or maybe even 3) bids.

We're gonna beat each other up. Look at least year- 5 teams (half the conference!) was within 2 games .500 and only 2 teams (Nova and Creighton) had fewer than 8 conference losses. There's no reason to think that won't be the norm in this league. I know it's cliché, but every team is dangerous and can win on any given night.

You know why Georgetown missed the dance last year? Bad non-conference results. And not their own. It's because Seton Hall lost to FDU an St. Peter's. If the Pirates take care of business against those 2 cupcakes, they're suddenly a 19 win rpi top 100 team and Gtown's 2 losses to them look more acceptable. Those same 2 SHU losses are likely what relegated Xavier to a play-in game instead of going straight to the round of 64.

It's all about non-conference. They're important games and shouldn't be treated as "pre-season" as some teams do with them.

[stever20]

Expanding the conference will do little to increase our number of NCAA Tournament bids unless we're adding top quality programs- such as UConn. Padding records against conference bottom feeders is exactly impressive to the committee. The number of teams the conference that gets in to the tournament largely comes down to how everyone performs in non-conference play. That's where the Big East gets to prove itself against the other conferences. If the 10 of us combine to pick up a bunch of quality (top 25 and 50) wins and avoid all bad losses in non-conference play, then the committee will have no problem putting a bottom half team with a slightly under .500 BE record in the dance. If even a few teams have average to poor non-conference results, we're pretty much going to be capped at 4 (or maybe even 3) bids.

We're gonna beat each other up. Look at least year- 5 teams (half the conference!) was within 2 games .500 and only 2 teams (Nova and Creighton) had fewer than 8 conference losses. There's no reason to think that won't be the norm in this league. I know it's cliché, but every team is dangerous and can win on any given night.

You know why Georgetown missed the dance last year? Bad non-conference results. And not their own. It's because Seton Hall lost to FDU an St. Peter's. If the Pirates take care of business against those 2 cupcakes, they're suddenly a 19 win rpi top 100 team and Gtown's 2 losses to them look more acceptable. Those same 2 SHU losses are likely what relegated Xavier to a play-in game instead of going straight to the round of 64.

It's all about non-conference. They're important games and shouldn't be treated as "pre-season" as some teams do with them.

At some point- actual win/loss record though matters. Those SHU losses didn't mean as much against Georgetown as them having a 17-14 record. The committee just doesn't put 17-14 teams in the tourney now like they did 10-15 years ago. Same with Xavier- with a 20-12 record against D1 teams. Xavier isn't going to pass Iowa, Tennessee, and Nebraska as a result of that(especially Iowa with Head to Head).

[Bill Marsh]

NIT winners back in the day, St. John's, Seton Hall, and DePaul might dispute the claim of "the only 3 teams to win a national championship."

Well, if we're going that route then Butler gets to claim a couple from the pre-tournament era. So, hooray! That's 70% of the conference.

Sorry if this has already been stated...but X won the NIT in the '50's too

Providence won a couple in the '60's too, but in both cases they were past the days when an NIT champ could lay legitimate claim to the national championship. Different story in the '40's and early '50's.