How many more wins each team needs to get in

[Bill Marsh]

bracket is set....
1 Villanova
2 Creighton
3 Xavier
4 Providence
5 St John's
6 Marquette
7 Georgetown
8 Butler
9 Seton Hall
10 DePaul

Wed
10 DePaul vs 7 Georgetown
9 Seton Hall vs 8 Butler
Thu
SH/But vs 1 Villanova
5 St John's vs 4 Providence
DeP/Geo vs 2 Creighton
6 Marquette vs 3 Xavier

I think this bracket eliminates any remote hope of getting 6 bids in. The loser of St John's/Providence isn't getting in.

best case, we have a Villanova/Providence and Georgetown/Xavier SF set I think. That is the only one that probably gets us 5 teams in even- and that's if Providence is in with 1 win.

worst case we have a Villanova/St John's and Creighton/Marquette SF, then Villanova/Creighton in the final. Georgetown and Providence definitely out then, St John's most likely out, and Xavier flying in the wind.

St. John's could do some real damage in this tournament. I can certainly see them getting by Providence in the 4-5 game. Then Villanova is faced with the prospect of having to beat them a 3rd time this year after getting beating them this year by only 3 and by 7. That's a tall order. St. John's is hot and is certainly capable of winning 2-3 games in this tournament. Two wins probably gets the a bid.

Xavier really needs Stainbrook to come back and to play well. If not, Georgetown probably wins that game and maybe gets on a roll. It will be interesting to see what happens to Creighton's legs playing on back-to-back-to-back nights and how that will affect their shooting. Hard for me to see a team that depends so much on the 3 winning this tournament.

[stever20]

bracket is set....
1 Villanova
2 Creighton
3 Xavier
4 Providence
5 St John's
6 Marquette
7 Georgetown
8 Butler
9 Seton Hall
10 DePaul

Wed
10 DePaul vs 7 Georgetown
9 Seton Hall vs 8 Butler
Thu
SH/But vs 1 Villanova
5 St John's vs 4 Providence
DeP/Geo vs 2 Creighton
6 Marquette vs 3 Xavier

I think this bracket eliminates any remote hope of getting 6 bids in. The loser of St John's/Providence isn't getting in.

best case, we have a Villanova/Providence and Georgetown/Xavier SF set I think. That is the only one that probably gets us 5 teams in even- and that's if Providence is in with 1 win.

worst case we have a Villanova/St John's and Creighton/Marquette SF, then Villanova/Creighton in the final. Georgetown and Providence definitely out then, St John's most likely out, and Xavier flying in the wind.

St. John's could do some real damage in this tournament. I can certainly see them getting by Providence in the 4-5 game. Then Villanova is faced with the prospect of having to beat them a 3rd time this year after getting beating them this year by only 3 and by 7. That's a tall order. St. John's is hot and is certainly capable of winning 2-3 games in this tournament. Two wins probably gets the a bid.

Xavier really needs Stainbrook to come back and to play well. If not, Georgetown probably wins that game and maybe gets on a roll. It will be interesting to see what happens to Creighton's legs playing on back-to-back-to-back nights and how that will affect their shooting. Hard for me to see a team that depends so much on the 3 winning this tournament.

Xavier is playing Marquette and not Georgetown 1st rd

[Bill Marsh]

bracket is set....
1 Villanova
2 Creighton
3 Xavier
4 Providence
5 St John's
6 Marquette
7 Georgetown
8 Butler
9 Seton Hall
10 DePaul

Wed
10 DePaul vs 7 Georgetown
9 Seton Hall vs 8 Butler
Thu
SH/But vs 1 Villanova
5 St John's vs 4 Providence
DeP/Geo vs 2 Creighton
6 Marquette vs 3 Xavier

I think this bracket eliminates any remote hope of getting 6 bids in. The loser of St John's/Providence isn't getting in.

best case, we have a Villanova/Providence and Georgetown/Xavier SF set I think. That is the only one that probably gets us 5 teams in even- and that's if Providence is in with 1 win.

worst case we have a Villanova/St John's and Creighton/Marquette SF, then Villanova/Creighton in the final. Georgetown and Providence definitely out then, St John's most likely out, and Xavier flying in the wind.

St. John's could do some real damage in this tournament. I can certainly see them getting by Providence in the 4-5 game. Then Villanova is faced with the prospect of having to beat them a 3rd time this year after getting beating them this year by only 3 and by 7. That's a tall order. St. John's is hot and is certainly capable of winning 2-3 games in this tournament. Two wins probably gets the a bid.

Xavier really needs Stainbrook to come back and to play well. If not, Georgetown probably wins that game and maybe gets on a roll. It will be interesting to see what happens to Creighton's legs playing on back-to-back-to-back nights and how that will affect their shooting. Hard for me to see a team that depends so much on the 3 winning this tournament.

Xavier is playing Marquette and not Georgetown 1st rd

What was I thinking? It's the middle of the night. Time to catch some Z's and take a fresh look in the morning. Thanks for catching it.

Stainbrook does need to come back and play well.

Georgetown does have the potential to get on a roll. The 7-10 game should help them get a W under their belts before facing a rematch with Creighton.

Creighton does have to answer questions about being able to keep their legs under them for shooting 3's 2-3 straight days.

[WaitingPatiently]

You're right. This group has never shown the ability to do that in the past. I mean doing it in StL the last 2 seasons doesn't mean anything at all. Those were mid-majors. This is the big time. They wear you down with physical play.

I have no idea how long the Jays will last in NYC, but I'm not worried about them losing because their legs can't handle the load of games 3 straight days. They might have an off shooting night. They might get beat because a quality team out plays them. But the leg argument isn't anything to worry about IMO.

[ChelseaFriar]

You're right. This group has never shown the ability to do that in the past. I mean doing it in StL the last 2 seasons doesn't mean anything at all. Those were mid-majors. This is the big time. They wear you down with physical play.

I have no idea how long the Jays will last in NYC, but I'm not worried about them losing because their legs can't handle the load of games 3 straight days. They might have an off shooting night. They might get beat because a quality team out plays them. But the leg argument isn't anything to worry about IMO.

Agree, I think the fatigue issue in conference tournaments is so overblown. These are 21 year old Division 1 athletes in top physical condition. You really think they are going to get burnt out by playing 40 minutes of basketball a day for three days in a row? They have grown up playing multiple games in a weekend. This is nothing new to them.

When attempting to back up the fatigue point, many always pointed to the fact that teams that didn't get a bye the first day in the old BET never won the tournament. Well, ever think that the reason they didn't win is because they were in the bottom half of the conference and other teams were simply better? (as we all know, UConn ended up winning 5 games in 5 days).

[XUFan09]

I agree that fatigue is overblown, but it's still a factor in shooting (players just aren't conscious of it). I remember when Tu Holloway was playing Cotton-like minutes in his All-American season, he was shooting 87% from the free throw line overall but only 75% in the last five minutes. Xavier played in a lot of close games that year (meaning a lot of time at the line near the end of games), so there's a large enough sample size for that to be significant.

Luckily for Creighton, they should be able to rotate guys well enough that no one is playing crazy minutes in any one game.

[adoraz11]

I feel the winner of sju Providence makes it. Otherwise, we are looking at a three bid league maximum (barring a big upset by GT) which is ridiculous for the third best conference.

[stever20]

I feel the winner of sju Providence makes it. Otherwise, we are looking at a three bid league maximum (barring a big upset by GT) which is ridiculous for the third best conference.

conferences don't get bids, teams do(also by RPI, we're #4)...

St John's at 21-12 just isn't good enough to get a bid. Not with their profile. Also, I'm sorry, but Xavier isn't a lock yet either. We have a chance if things go terrible for only 2 spots. When your 3rd best team has a 48 RPI, you are in trouble.

[adoraz11]

I feel the winner of sju Providence makes it. Otherwise, we are looking at a three bid league maximum (barring a big upset by GT) which is ridiculous for the third best conference.

conferences don't get bids, teams do(also by RPI, we're #4)...

St John's at 21-12 just isn't good enough to get a bid. Not with their profile. Also, I'm sorry, but Xavier isn't a lock yet either. We have a chance if things go terrible for only 2 spots. When your 3rd best team has a 48 RPI, you are in trouble.

Yeah I get that and have heard the argument plenty. I still think Big East gets four in, three minimum. Two is possible if Xavier and Providence lose, but there's more factors that the rpi that everyone focuses. For example, sju late season run and Xavier injury. Also sju having higher ranking in other categories like kenpom and bpi. Regardless conference really needs to add some teams for next year. We can't afford having this happen again.

[stever20]

I feel the winner of sju Providence makes it. Otherwise, we are looking at a three bid league maximum (barring a big upset by GT) which is ridiculous for the third best conference.

conferences don't get bids, teams do(also by RPI, we're #4)...

St John's at 21-12 just isn't good enough to get a bid. Not with their profile. Also, I'm sorry, but Xavier isn't a lock yet either. We have a chance if things go terrible for only 2 spots. When your 3rd best team has a 48 RPI, you are in trouble.

Yeah I get that and have heard the argument plenty. I still think Big East gets four in, three minimum. Two is possible if Xavier and Providence lose, but there's more factors that the rpi that everyone focuses. For example, sju late season run and Xavier injury. Also sju having higher ranking in other categories like kenpom and bpi. Regardless conference really needs to add some teams for next year. We can't afford having this happen again.

bpi is completely meaningless. St John's also if they go 1-1 in the tourney would be 3-3 last 6 games. So it's not like they are red hot now like they were a few weeks ago. Also, there's a LOT about St John's profile outside the RPI that isn't good at all. They have very few top 100 wins.

Xavier's injury doesn't help them in the committee's eyes. Not at all. He needs to play and be fairly effective or the committee will question will he be ready for the NCAA tourney. X is a lot different team w/o him.