Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[_lh]

I would assume the main argument for adding teams is adding more content. If you have 12 teams playing 18 games you know have 108 games for FS to pick from and broadcast. For other sports you can divide into divisions and limit the amount of east-west travel. All I know is that the BE was looking at expansion candidates as of 18 months ago. Maybe they decided that they do not need to expand at all, but they certainly were considering it.

I would assume that if they were looking at expansion 18 months ago, then a pretty good chance it is still on the table; I can't imagine they would completely swipe it off the table when the conference is only two years old.

The source that told me from Virginia that VCU is not a real candidate was also the person that told me Fox IS pushing the tables to expand to 12, contrary to popular to belief on this message board. Fox needs more inventory to grow its brand and she also said if they went to twelve teams, Fox would look at prime time games Monday-Thursday and then a Fox national double header on Saturdays.

Like you said, no one knows for sure but it is fun to speculate. Those people that say it isn't, then why else would there be almost 80 pages on a thread that is only a couple weeks old?

Mere window shopping.

They kicked the tires of the SLU/UD/Richmond/VCU in the used car lot and have moved on.

[UD FAN]

I would assume the main argument for adding teams is adding more content. If you have 12 teams playing 18 games you know have 108 games for FS to pick from and broadcast. For other sports you can divide into divisions and limit the amount of east-west travel. All I know is that the BE was looking at expansion candidates as of 18 months ago. Maybe they decided that they do not need to expand at all, but they certainly were considering it.

I would assume that if they were looking at expansion 18 months ago, then a pretty good chance it is still on the table; I can't imagine they would completely swipe it off the table when the conference is only two years old.

The source that told me from Virginia that VCU is not a real candidate was also the person that told me Fox IS pushing the tables to expand to 12, contrary to popular to belief on this message board. Fox needs more inventory to grow its brand and she also said if they went to twelve teams, Fox would look at prime time games Monday-Thursday and then a Fox national double header on Saturdays.

Like you said, no one knows for sure but it is fun to speculate. Those people that say it isn't, then why else would there be almost 80 pages on a thread that is only a couple weeks old?

Mere window shopping.

They kicked the tires of the SLU/UD/Richmond/VCU in the used car lot and have moved on.

LOL

[ChestRockwell85]

Here is the Way-Too-Early Top 25 for next year. 4 Big East teams in, 2 on the outside looking in. If this happens we have another NCAA tournament where 60% of the Big East gets in.

What we have here is a really SOLID high-major basketball conference.

I understand folks from Dayton, or St. Louis, or Richmond or wherever wanting to get into the Big East, and again, being a Villanova football fan I know what it's like being on the outside looking in, but this 10 team conference is strong right now. We have to keep focus on the teams in the conference right NOW and make sure they continue to succeed before making room for anybody else.

I also realize this thread is just for conversation, and it is a "what if" thread more than anything else. But again, expansion just does not make sense at this time. It should not be revisited for another 3 years minimum.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... rly-top-25

[sheg]

I agree, Chest, that the Big East is in a good place right now. I'd be really surprised if an expansion move happened in time for the 16-17 school year. I would not be surprised at 17-18. I may be just an observer reading the tea leaves, but then so is everybody else here. This thread is both "what if" AND "should they."

As far as the "should they," I'll note that while 6/10 is 60%, so is 7/12 (well, 58.3%, but so close as not to matter). And seven brings more excitement, more ratings, more respect, and more chance for one or more to advance DEEP than 6 does. Twelve brings more inventory and more prime-time games. If you define a prime-time game as one between two teams in the top half of the conference - 12 members deliver 30 prime-time games per season, 10 members deliver 20 prime-time games per season - a 50% increase for only a 20% increase in membership. History has shown us that those top six members would all likely be top 50 RPI or darn close to it . Assuming Fox would truly even out the deal for 12 members (and I believe they would get value for that extra money), there is little reason NOT to expand - outside of 1) inertia; or 2) belief of a lack of suitable expansion targets.

***The rest of this post only applies if you think expansion IS happening in the next few years. If you don't just skip it***

I'm mostly done with this discussion until something materially changes, but I'll leave it at this: the targets, in my very humble opinion, in rough order of importance:

1) need to be excellent institutional fits. This does not necessarily exclude publics.

1.1) have good facilities and a demonstrated institutional commitment to winning in men's college basketball.

2) need to have sensible geography - meaning somewhere from Omaha eastward. I love Gonzaga, and I'd love to have them in my conference short-term if I'm you and I'm picking, but what happens in ten years if Few retires/leaves and they slide in recruiting, and since they're no longer in the WCC, they're not guaranteed 14 conference wins per year? If their average RPI is 130, do you still want them then?

3) have no FBS football.

4) are always in the top third of men's college basketball. In other words, how bad are you at your worst? One or two years in the 150s is not a killer, as long as you get back up. One or two years in the 200+ range is a killer.

5) are consistent at #4.

6) have shown the ability to have great seasons - top 25s, high seeds, deep tournament runs. The more the merrier, obviously.

7) have good attendance and good alumni bases.

And _lh, don't bother replying. Everyone already knows your response anyway so save the bandwidth.

[_lh]

I could say the same thing for you sheg. Yes, UD and UD fans want to be in the BE. No, they are not a good add.

[BigmanU]

Looks like VCU is falling apart at the seams. Multiple transfers & decommits along with the Mo Alie-Cox charges.

VCU was Shaka Smart. They will be competitive but never at the level he had the program. Glad the BEast didn't hitch itself to that wagon.

[NJRedman]

Personally I don't see expansion being seriously talked about until 2 years before the TV contract is up and if any invitations do come it will be a year prior to that deal running out.

[stever20]

Personally I don't see expansion being seriously talked about until 2 years before the TV contract is up and if any invitations do come it will be a year prior to that deal running out.

I think it'd be at least 1 year earlier than you say. They would want them to be in the conference and playing before the negotiations start up. So with the deal running thru end of the 2025 season- and negotiations starting then probably at the latest in the Fall of 2023- expansion at the latest would be done for the 22-23 season. So expansion complete by June of 2021.

[ohiohsbball]

Personally I don't see expansion being seriously talked about until 2 years before the TV contract is up and if any invitations do come it will be a year prior to that deal running out.

I disagree. I think if expansion happens it happens sooner rather than later. I think if there is no expansion being discussed by tip off to the 2016 season then it likely won't happen for a while if at all. Right now, Dayton/VCU/Richmond want in to get a chunk of the money pie from FS1. If there is only two years left and ratings continue to tank and a TV deal is not definite, would teams still be as willing to join as they are now? Money drives the bus; you can talk about on court success, location, fan base but buttom line is it is all about the dollar. Right now there is too much uncertainty with the league to say that a new TV deal will be guaranteed after this one is up.

[BillikensWin]

Remember in 10 years when the contract is up it won't just be ESPN vs Fox. You have Comcast, a likely time warner\charter company, ATT\DirectV, Amazon, Netflix, and who knows how many over the top companies that will offer programming and will compete for TV inventory. It was mentioned Fox wouldn't have patience. Well, there are 10 years left in the contract so they are going to be.

75 pages in and it's still the same. Unless UConn wants in, there isn't a team that can move the needle and give the conference more money. No extra money, then no extra teams. Time is the BE's friend. See what happens in the next 8 years, then if things need to change before the end of the contract then they will.

2023 Worse case scenario:
Fox one BE ratings are terrible.
BE turns into a 2-3 bid conference.
A10 becomes best non P5 basketball conference with 5-6 teams every year.

Do you think one of the P5 will invite the BE teams in? Nope, Not going to happen.
Would a top basketball school over the last decade jump from A10\MVC if asked. Absolutely, there would be fight to see who could get in the door first(first 75 pages of this thread).

So worse case is BE gets to keep its money and not have to share and no matter what happens still have the best\most profitable non football conference.

Your worst case scenario actually ended up focusing me on the Big East versus the A10. Roughly speaking, each Big East member makes in one year the same amount of television related revenue that an A10 member makes in a decade! I believe most people would agree that the A-10 is in no position whatsoever to surpass the Big East. The Big East has the better brands. Obviously, the Big East has a better television agreement. And the Big East has the Big East Tournament in Madison Square Garden.

Why would a fan of a school that belongs to the A-10 conference take shots at the Big East conference or at any school in the Big East?

Agreed with most...but there's only one reason that makes sense.
That school's fans aren't happy with their league. I'm almost ambivalent on the A10 these days. It's Biondi's deal.