Bracketology

[MUWarrior1090]

I don't think an MU win over DePaul guarantees a tournament birth. There will most likely be a bid stealer or two in the conference tournaments. If they go 1-1, they will be playing with fire. A DePaul win won't really improve their RPI.

That's what I said. 1-1 would have them right on the cutline. Barely in or barely out. Or playing with fire as you said.

[GoldenWarrior11]

A Catholic school in Chicago is going dancing! Loyola just beat ISU to guarantee their bid into the NCAA Tournament. They will not be an easy out.

Since DePaul's last tournament appearance in 2004, below are all the Illinois programs that have made the tournament in that span:

Loyola (2018)
Northwestern (2017)
Illinois (2005, 2006, 2011, 2013)
Bradley (2006)
Southern Illinois (2005, 2006, 2007)

[kayako]

really though where would the bid thieves be? I think this concept of NCAA bid thieves are a bit overrated- we don't see that many at all quite frankly.

Between C-USA, MCW, and A10, I think we'll see 1 or 2 this year. Probably won't come from another conference.

RI was probably the only thief last year.

[ecasadoSBU]

I don't think an MU win over DePaul guarantees a tournament birth. There will most likely be a bid stealer or two in the conference tournaments. If they go 1-1, they will be playing with fire. A DePaul win won't really improve their RPI.

In other words... They would have to beat Nova? Oh my. I hope for the best and would love to see 7 bids again... But damn. Marquette has an uphill climb

[kayako]

In other words... They would have to beat Nova? Oh my. I hope for the best and would love to see 7 bids again... But damn. Marquette has an uphill climb

Well, the fun part is tracking what other bubble teams are doing. Syracuse is in a similar spot, having to beat WF and probably UNC. I think the bubble's softened up a bit and 7 teams are fighting for 4 spots. I can see Marquette still having a chance without beating Nova.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Marquette needs a few of the teams around them to be upset in the conference tournament in order to strengthen and feel comfortable about their tournament odds:

UCLA, Syracuse, Alabama, Baylor, Washington, USC, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

Similarly, Arizona State should be on very shaky ground. They are a 9-seed in their own tournament against Colorado (whom they already lost to once this year). If three of those teams get deep runs their respective tournaments, and Marquette only beats DePaul (and losses to Villanova), it will be tough to secure one of those final bids.

[JPSchmack]

really though where would the bid thieves be? I think this concept of NCAA bid thieves are a bit overrated- we don't see that many at all quite frankly.

Between C-USA, MCW, and A10, I think we'll see 1 or 2 this year. Probably won't come from another conference.

RI was probably the only thief last year.

Yeah, the growing conferences and consolidation of power has pretty much destroyed the concept of "mid-majors"

Mid-Majors used to be code for "Conferences were the top seed in the tournament could get an at-large, but it will be a two-bid league if they lose the auto."

But that was when:
Butler was in the Horizon
Creighton was in the MVC
Wichita St was in the MVC
VCU was in the Colonial
Davidson was in the SoCon
Western Kentucky was in the Sun Belt
Nevada was in the WAC

Now they’re basically one-bid leagues. MVC could sometimes send two. But the rest? very little chance.

[Nildogg]

But that was when:
Butler was in the Horizon
Creighton was in the MVC
Wichita St was in the MVC
VCU was in the Colonial
Davidson was in the SoCon
Western Kentucky was in the Sun Belt
Nevada was in the WAC

Now they’re basically one-bid leagues. MVC could sometimes send two. But the rest? very little chance.

Lets not forget that X was also in the A10 Mid-Majoring it up, despite their fans to ignore their reality.

[DudeAnon]

But that was when:
Butler was in the Horizon
Creighton was in the MVC
Wichita St was in the MVC
VCU was in the Colonial
Davidson was in the SoCon
Western Kentucky was in the Sun Belt
Nevada was in the WAC

Now they’re basically one-bid leagues. MVC could sometimes send two. But the rest? very little chance.

Lets not forget that X was also in the A10 Mid-Majoring it up, despite their fans to ignore their reality.

hmmm, last I checked Butler made a move up towards the Atlantic 10 before getting added to the Big East.

Also, while the A-10 was undoubtedly a mid-major, it was not a one-horse poney. Temple was a legit power at the time alongside Xavier and then SLU, St. Joseph's and Richmond were also not bad.

[stever20]

Marquette needs a few of the teams around them to be upset in the conference tournament in order to strengthen and feel comfortable about their tournament odds:

UCLA, Syracuse, Alabama, Baylor, Washington, USC, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

Similarly, Arizona State should be on very shaky ground. They are a 9-seed in their own tournament against Colorado (whom they already lost to once this year). If three of those teams get deep runs their respective tournaments, and Marquette only beats DePaul (and losses to Villanova), it will be tough to secure one of those final bids.

Well one problem for Marquette- Washington if they can beat Oregon St is matched up with USC- meaning the winner of that game would be in pretty easily over a 1-1 Marquette. Seeing some bracketology with both of those out and Marquette in right now. That wouldn't be the case if they play each other in the QF.

As far as Arizona St- the entire season matters. unlike Marquette, they did take care of business out of conference. 2 top 5 OOC wins really helps the case out quite a bit. I think if they can take care of Colorado they are in easily- and still even losing to Colorado- will get in the tourney. I think Pac 12 gets at least 4 in- Arizona, USC/Washington, UCLA, and Arizona St. And it could be more with Washington and USC getting in- and possibly some others.

And I think Marquette needs to be a huge Oklahoma Sooner fan right now. An Oklahoma St win over Oklahoma and OSU has 6 group 1 wins and 10 group 1/2 wins. Marquette would have 4 group 1 and 8 group 1/2 wins- and if Butler beats Seton Hall- it's only 3 group 1 wins(BTW, that's a HUGE game for Big East teams tier wise- as a Butler win doesn't get Butler up from 45 to top 30, but will knock Seton Hall from 27 to sub 30).